港股狂跌令人质疑沪港通

Since Wednesday, shares in three huge Hong Kong-listed companies have lost half their value. Investorsin Hanergy Thin Film, Goldin Financial and GoldinProperties are nursing a combined $36bn in paperlosses, without a single fundamental reason, suchas a big announcement, to explain the slide.

自周三以来，三家香港上市大公司的股票市值遭遇腰斩。汉能薄膜(HTF)、高银金融(Goldin Financial)以及高银地产(Goldin Properties)的投资者们遭受的账面损失共计360亿美元，但迄今没有任一基本面原因(比如一项重大声明)来解释这种暴跌。

The plunges have highlighted the Hong Kong market’s vulnerability to big share price movesand raised questions on whether a new direct connection between Hong Kong and the volatileShanghai exchange is changing the dynamic of the southern market.

此番暴跌凸显了香港股市在股价巨幅波动方面的脆弱性，而且引发了这样的问题：去年才启动的连通香港与波动较大的上海股市的沪港通，是否正在改变香港股市的格局?

Up to now, Hong Kong Exchange, which operates the equities market, and its regulator, theSecurities and Futures Commission, have not found it necessary to intervene when individualstock prices race rapidly upward or plunge precipitously to earth. But the increasing presenceof retail customers and momentum investors, many of them from the mainland, may force arethink.

迄今为止，运营香港股市的香港交易所(Hong Kong Exchange)及其监管机构香港证券及期货事务监察委员会(Securities and Futures Commission，证监会)，尚未发现在个别股价暴涨或急跌之时有必要进行干预。但日益增多的散户和动量投资者(其中很多来自中国内地)入场可能迫使当局进行反思。

At issue is the ability of thinly-traded penny stocks to soar, garnering market capitalisationsthat ostensibly put them into the big league. All three companies that dropped this week hadseen their prices more than quadruple in the past six months. HTF and Goldin Financial wereranked as the 20th and 28th biggest companies in the territory last month.

问题在于交易量很小的细价股(指每股低于一元的低额股票——译者注)有能力飙升，获得表面上把它们推入大型股行列的市值。本周暴跌的三只股票在过去六个月里上涨超过四倍。上月，汉能薄膜与高银金融在香港的市值排名分别为第20位和28位。

“We have a legitimate market for real companies, then we have bubbles like Goldin and Hanergywhich provide an outlet for people’s gambling instincts, said David Webb, a corporategovernance activist in Hong Kong. “There were plenty of warning signs in both of these. Ifanyone has been buying, it’s been a bet that a greater fool would pay more for it later.

“我们有一个面向真实企业的正当市场，然而我们也有像高银和汉能这样的泡沫，它们为人们的投机本能提供一个出口，香港公司治理维权人士大卫•韦伯(David Webb)说。“这两家公司都有很多警示信号。如果有人近来在购买它们的股票，他们是在押注之后会有更大的傻瓜花更多的钱接手。

Unlike other big markets, Hong Kong does not have “circuit breakers, where trading is halted ina rapidly moving stock to prevent free-falls or rocketing prices.

与其它大型股市不同，香港没有“熔断机制，即股价迅速波动的股票可以被暂停交易，以防止暴跌或暴涨。

Shanghai, for example, has a 10 per cent daily limit on moves up and down. Tokyo preventstraders entering prices outside preset limits. New York introduced circuit breakers following themarket crashes of 1987 and 1989.

例如，上海的股价单日涨跌幅度被限制在10%之内。东京禁止交易者在股价超出预设限值时买入。纽约在1987年和1989年的股市崩盘后引入了熔断机制。

Some market participants believe that the linking of mainland retail investors to the Hong Kongmarket in November via the Shanghai Hong Kong Stock Connect may have made interventionmore necessary. Retail traders are seen as more likely to pile into and out of rapidly movingstocks.

部分市场参与者认为，内地散户投资者经由去年11月启动的沪港通机制进入香港股市，或许已使得干预变得更有必要。散户交易者被认为更有可能蜂拥买入或卖出股价快速变动的股票。

About 20 per cent of Hong Kong’s cash trading is still conducted by small investors, comparedwith 90 per cent in Shanghai and 2 per cent in New York.

香港约20%的现金交易仍由小投资者完成，在上海这一比例为90%，而纽约为2%。

Since March, HTF has featured in the top 10 most-traded stocks southbound through thestock connect more than any other company except Shanghai Electric.

自3月以来，在内地投资者通过沪港通追捧的前10大香港上市股票中，汉能一直是除了上海电气(ShanghaiElectric)之外交易量最大的股票。

On average, about half the value of HTF’s daily turnover comes through Stock Connect whereasfor a blue-chip such as Ping An or Tencent, southbound trade accounts for less than 4 per centof its value traded.

平均而言，汉能日交易量的约一半来自沪港通南下资金，而对中国平安(Ping An)或腾讯(Tencent)等蓝筹股而言，南下资金只占总交易量的不到4%。

“In reality these [Goldin and Hanergy] are third line stocks masquerading as first tier throughtheir size. Given their gains and their thin liquidity they were always going to be vulnerable tobig moves, said Keith Pogson, head of Asia financial services at EY.

安永(EY)亚洲金融服务主管包凯(Keith Pogson)表示：“在现实中，这些(高银和汉能)只能算是三流股票，它们借助自己的规模假冒为一流股票。鉴于近期涨幅巨大和流动性稀薄，它们总是容易遭遇大幅波动。

Hong Kong is now considering introducing limited circuit breakers that impose a brief coolingoff period for stocks that move sharply — a move backed by most major brokers.

香港正在考虑推出有限的“熔断机制，强制剧烈波动的股票有一段短暂的冷静期，此举得到了大多数主要券商的支持。

“The problem is that the Hong Kong market currently allows the momentum that can createmega caps, said one bank equities trading head who supports the idea, in part because of thecity’s large retail trading element.

一位支持该想法(部分原因是股市香港散户较多)的银行股票交易主管表示：“问题在于，香港市场目前允许可以创造大型股的动量。

In the case of Goldin Financial, the rapid share price move may be exacerbated by the fact thatmost of its shares are held by a small number of people. Hong Kong, like most big stockmarkets, has a “free float rule that requires companies to have 25 per cent of their sharesavailable for trading by the public.

就高银金融而言，该公司的大部分股份由一小部分人持有，这加剧了其股价的剧烈波动。与大多数大型股市一样，香港实行“自由流通股规则，要求公司拿出至少25%的股票供公众交易。

But in March the SFC issued a “high concentration of shareholding announcement for GoldinFinancial, where it noted that although the company’s free float met the 25 per cent minimum,the stock was in reality held by 19 investors with only 1.42 per cent held by outsiders.

但在今年3月，香港证监会警告称，高银金融“股权高度集中，它指出，尽管该公司的自由流通股份符合25%的最低标准，但该股实际上由19名投资者持有，只有1.42%的股份由外部人士持有。

The SFC has issued 10 such warnings so far this year, compared with 18 last year and 10 for allof 2013.

香港证监会今年迄今发布了10宗此类警告，而去年发布了18宗，2013年发布了10宗。

Some investors also complain that the Hong Kong exchange and regulators should betougher on companies that suspend trading in their shares for long periods of time, trappinginvestors.

一些投资者还抱怨称，香港交易所和监管机构应该对那些长期停牌、套牢投资者的公司采取更为严厉的措施。

A total of 37 companies, worth about $12bn have all been suspended for more than threemonths and many fear that HTF might join that list following its suspension, it its request, onWednesday. HTF declined to comment on its plans, although its parent company, HanergyGroup, said in a statement that it was in “a good financial position with no overdue loans andhad not sold any of its 30.6bn shares in HTF

香港股市停牌3个月以上的公司总计有37家，市值总计约为120亿美元，许多人担忧，在周三申请停牌之后，汉能薄膜可能加入这一名单。汉能薄膜拒绝就其计划置评，尽管其母公司汉能集团(Hanergy Group)在一份声明中表示，集团“资金状况良好，没有任何一笔贷款逾期，对持有的306亿股汉能薄膜也没有任何减持套现行为。

The SFC declined to comment on HTF and the two Goldin companies, following its policy ofnot commenting on individual stocks. The Hong Kong Exchange also did not comment.

香港证监会以不评论个股的政策为由，拒绝评论汉能薄膜和两家高银公司。港交所也没有置评。