新常态下中国经济发展的七大机遇

Chen Yulu, president of Renmin University of China. [File photo / IC]

China's economy steps into the "new normal" phase, as it is growing in a manageable and relatively balanced manner. Confronted by a weakening overseas market, sliding domestic demand, adjustments in real estate sector and a deeper-level structural shift, the country faces mounting pressure of economic slowdown.

当前的中国经济步入“新常态”，经济增长进入了可控、相对平衡的运行区间。在外需疲软、内需回落、房地产调整及深层次结构变动的力量综合作用下，经济下行压力有所加剧。

However, the "new normal" does not only mean difficulties, challenges and risks. We still have the assertion that China's economy still has great strategic opportunities and can make great achievements. What has changed is the connotation and condition of this great opportunity.

然而，“新常态”并不是只有困难、挑战和风险，新常态没有改变我国发展仍处于可以大有作为的重要战略机遇期的判断，改变的是重要战略机遇期的内涵和条件。

China's economy is still featured with the fundamentals that it is growing in a healthy manner, with its development mode and economic structure changed. So the "new normal" of China's economy is breeding a great development opportunity with which the country, as a rising power, embraces the new economic system.

没有改变我国经济发展总体向好的基本面，改变的是经济发展方式和经济结构。因此，中国经济“新常态”孕育着一个正在崛起的国家拥抱新经济体系的宏大发展机遇。

First, the opportunity of major reforms and adjustments. The financial crisis in 2008 exposed the serious structural problem in the world's economy, and pronounced the end of China's traditional growth approach. Problems such as great energy consuming and severe pollution along with the high investment, social economic conflict along with the gap in income distribution, and the insufficiency of innovation plagued by excessive control have become hurdles for China to realize a prosperous country, affluent livelihood and the national rejuvenation.

第一,大改革与大调整的机遇。2008年国际金融危机不仅暴露了世界经济面临巨大的结构性问题，同时也宣告了镶嵌在世界经济格局中的中国传统增长模式走到了尽头。高投资带来的高能耗与高污染、收入分配差距带来的社会经济冲突以及过度管制带来的创新不足已经成为中国实现国家富强、人民富足和民族复兴的绊脚石。

Chinese people have realized that the major reforms and adjustments are the only choice to restructure the fundamentals of China's social and economic developments. The consensus reached in the "major reforms" and "major adjustments" is the best gift that the "new normal" brings to the next round of China's economic development. It gives China a great opportunity amid the worldwide structural reforms.

人民深深认识到，大改革和大调整是重构中国社会经济发展基石的唯一选择。这种“大改革”与“大调整”共识的形成是“新常态”带给中国经济下一轮发展的最大礼物,在世界性结构改革的大浪潮中给予了中国良好的机遇期。

Second, the opportunity in major consumption, major market and constructing the "effect of major economy". Other countries may be amazed to find that China, while stabilizing its position as the world's second largest economy, has its market demand and domestic consumption greatly improved.

第二,大消费、大市场与构建“大国经济效应”的机遇。世界各国惊奇地发现，中国在GDP稳居世界第二位的同时，其市场份额和消费规模也大幅度提升。

The demand from China becomes a key factor in the world's demand and the "effect of a major economy" has revealed. For the first, the great scale and scope of China's economy, with the improvement of productivity offsetting the rise of various costs, does not lower its market demand in the world. For the second, the consumption is accelerating, as China's consumption is growing on an average speed of 13 percent every year.

中国需求成为世界需求最为重要的决定因素,“大国经济效应”开始全面显现。一是在市场上出现全面的规模效应和范围效应，生产效率的提升有效对冲着各种成本的上升，使中国在世界市场的份额并没有下降；二是消费开始上台阶，中国消费规模依然每年按照平均13%的速度增长。

Along with the expansion of demand from China, the purchase made by China has become a core factor to stabilize the world's economy. China is shifting its role from "the world's factory" to the "world's market". For the last, the role as the "world's factory" has been linked with that of the "world's market", and thus integrates the domestic trade with international trade. It makes the country's economy more stabilized and greatly improves its capability to deal with the turbulence in the world's economy.

中国需求的扩张使中国采购成为世界经济稳定的核心因素，中国开始从“世界工厂”转向“世界市场”。三是中国的“世界工厂”开始与中国的“世界市场”相对接，在内外贸一体化的作用下使中国经济的稳定性和抵抗世界经济波动的能力大幅度上扬。

Third, the opportunity in great potential and constructing pluralistic growth poles. By the end of 2017, the index in China's every industry has shown that China's economy is shifting to post-industrialization, and the dividend of industrialization is wearing out. But we must see the great dimension and size of China's economy. The Yangtze River Delta region, Pearl River Delta region, and Beijing-Tianjin area have shifted to a growth mode significantly driven by the service industry.

第三,“大纵深”与构建多元增长极的机遇。虽然到2017年底，中国各类产业结构的指标已经标志着中国经济开始向后工业化阶段转化，工业化红利开始衰竭。但是，一定要看到中国经济纵深的厚度和宽度，即“长三角”、“珠三角”以及“京津地区”虽然开始全面转向服务业驱动。

But the per capita GDP in the vast central and west China as well as northeastern China is still lower than $5,000, with the industrialization in these areas remaining fast development in medium term. It will make way for upgrading the industry in the coastal areas, meanwhile accelerate the development in western areas. So the great shift of China's industry greatly slows down the receding of dividend of China's industrialization. By constructing the pluralistic growth poles, the layout of China's growth is more scientific.

但广大的中西部和东北地区人均GDP依然不足5000美元，工业化依然处于高速发展的中期阶段。这不仅为东部产业升级提供有效的腾挪空间，也为中西部加速发展提供了契机。因此，中国产业的梯度大转移不仅大大延缓了中国工业化红利消退的速度，同时通过构建多元化的增长极使中国空间布局更加科学。

Fourth, the opportunity from "talents" and seeking second round of demographic dividend. The arrival of Lewis Turning Point and drawing close of aged society mean the traditional population dividend of China is wearing off. But it must be pointed out that it is only in the migrant worker sector that the problems of "being difficult to hire qualified workers" and "labor cost being on the rise" are most prominent. The layout of China's employment market features both "the difficulty of college students to land a job" and "the lack of migrant workers".

第四,“大人才”与构建第二次人口红利的机遇。刘易斯拐点的到来和老龄社会的逼近意味着中国传统的人口红利开始消退。但必须注意的是，目前“招工难”和“用工贵”问题主要凸显在农民工领域。中国的就业格局是“大学生就业难”与“民工荒”相并存。

With up to 7 million college students graduating every year, the starting salary of these students have started to draw close to that of farmer-turned workers. But that is the key point for China to shift from a populous country to one with powerful human resources.

每年高达700多万大学生毕业压力已经使大学生就业起薪与农民工平均工资开始拉平。而这恰恰是中国从人口大国迈向人力资源强国的关键。

It manifests that a large number of well-educated people have prepared China's industry upgrading with massive highly qualified and low-cost backup reserves. The second round of population dividend that features college students and human resources is replacing the traditional population dividend that features migrant workers and low-end labor force.

这说明大规模受过高等教育的人群已经为中国产业升级准备了大规模高素质、低成本的产业后备大军。以大学生和人力资源为核心的第二次人口红利开始替代以农民工和低端劳动力为核心的传统人口红利。

Fifth, the opportunity from "major innovation" and constructing technology dividend. When screening the various indexes of China's technology innovation, we will find that the new innovative development approach is taking shape while the extensive mode of economic development comes to an end. First, there is a significant growth in the number of patent applications: the number reached 2.577 million in 2013, up 15.9 percent. It accounts for 32.1 percent of the world's total, ranking the top in the world. Second, the expenditure in R&D increased significantly: it accounts for 2.09 percent of China's GDP in 2017, up 12.4 percent, or growing in a high-speed, moderate intensity level. Third, there is a great boost in the prosperity of technology market: in 2013 the trade volume in technology market reached 746.9 billion yuan, up 16 percent. Fourth, the export of high-tech products rose substantially, with the total volume climbing to $660.3 billion, or 30 percent of the total export volume. Fifth, the number of technology papers published overseas drew close to 300,000, making China one of the major powers of technology papers. Sixth, China boasts the world's largest team of researchers in science and technology sector. All these figures show that China will gradually obtain the dividend in technological innovation as long as it deepens reforms in technological system and encourages all kinds of innovative and creative activities. "Made in China" is shifting to "Innovate by China", along with the shift from labor intensive manufacturing to knowledge intensive industries.

第五,“大创新”与构建技术红利的机遇。仔细梳理中国技术创新发展的各类指标，我们会发现，在粗放式发展模式走到尽头的同时，中国创新发展模式已经崭露头角：一是专利申请大幅度提升，于2013年达到257.7万，增速为15.9%，占世界总数的32.1%，居世界第一；二是R&D经费支出突破低水平阀值，于2017年达到GDP的2.09%，增速达12.4%，进入高速度、中等强度阶段；三是技术市场活跃程度大幅度提升，2013年技术市场交易额达到7469亿元，增速达到16%；四是高技术产品出口大幅增长，总额达到6603亿美元，占出口总额的30%；五是国外发表的科技论文在2013年已接近30万篇，迈入世界科技论文大国的行列。六是中国拥有世界最庞大的科学技术研究人员。上述这些参数说明，只要进一步进行科技体制改革和鼓励各类创新创业活动，中国技术创新红利必将逐步实现。“中国制造”开始向“中国创新”转型，从劳动力密集型制造业向知识密集产业过渡。

Sixth, the opportunity in major upgrade and planning an upgrading version of China's economy. China's economy has shown the symbols of overall upgrading under the multiple influences including market, technology and human resources. For one, the consumption behavior has shown substantial upgrading as per capita GDP drew close to $8,000.The industrialized-style consumption that centers on basic needs of food, clothing, housing and traffic in the past 30 years begins to shift to post-industrialized consumption that features high-end finished product and service.

第六,大升级与构建升级版中国经济的机遇。在市场、技术、人力等多方面的作用下，中国经济开始出现全面升级的势头：一是在人均GDP接近8000美元时，消费开始出现大幅度升级，开始从过去30年的以吃穿住行为主体的工业化消费转向以高端制成品和服务消费为主的后工业化消费。

For the other, driven by the demand, the industry has started a major shift from manufacturing to service sector, from labor intensive industry to technology intensive sectors. An upgrading version of China's economy is taking shape.

二是产业在需求拉动下，开始大幅度由制造业转向服务业、由劳动密集型产业转向知识与技术密集型产业。中国升级版经济的雏形开始显现。

Seventh, the opportunity in major opening-up and global layout of China's economy. The overall elevation of China's economic power and the change in layout of global economy because of the 2008 financial crisis grant China an unprecedented opportunity to carry out major opening-up and global layout. First, China begins to shift from the "era of exporting commodities" to the higher level of "capital export". The direct investment in overseas market is rising substantially, with major increases in overseas mergers and acquisitions.The average growth rate surpassed 30 percent, as the FDI in overseas market surpassed $100 billion.

第七,大开放与中国经济全球布局的机遇。中国经济实力的全面提升以及2008年国际金融危机带来的全球经济格局的变化给予了中国前所未有的进行大开放和全球布局的机遇。一是中国开始从“商品输出时代”转向更为高级的“资本输出时代”，对外的FDI高速增长，海外并购突飞猛进，其平均增速超过30%，对外投资总量2017年已突破1000亿美元。

Second, the set-up of regional free trade zone radiates the related areas during the process of opening-up. Third, centered on the "One Belt and One Road" project, a full integration will be carried out between China's spatial strategy and opening-up strategy.China will form new international partnership through links and communication.

二是以区域性自由贸易区的构建全面强化中国开放的板块效应；三是以“一带一路”为核心展开中国空间战略与开放战略全面对接，并通过互联互通打造中国新的国际合作格局。

Fourth, the setup of the world's financial institutes including the New development Bank, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and Silk Road Fund breaks the industry landscape dominated by Europe and the United States. These developments expand China's space in resources distribution and its profitability mode, and will bring China to a new stage of development.

四是以金砖银行、亚洲基础设施投资银行、丝路基金等国际金融机构的构建，打破欧美一统国际金融的格局。这些拓展有效扩张了中国资源配置的空间以及盈利模式，必将把中国发展带入新阶段。

For sure, to secure the above seven opportunities and transfer all strategic chances into real growth and development, we need to tackle effectively all kinds of problems and challenges that the "new normal" faces. We need to roll out a system that adapts to the next-round of economic development on the back of full and deepened reforms.

当然，要很好把握上述七大机遇，将各种战略机遇转化为真正的增长和发展，这不仅需要我们有效解决“新常态”面临的各种问题和挑战，同时还需要我们在全面深化改革的基础上构建出适合下一轮经济发展的制度体系。

Vocabulary：

integrate: 使结合

national rejuvenation: 民族复兴

dividend: 红利