中国领导人将实施经济改革

China's new leadership holds a key meeting this weekend that state media are trumpeting as a likely "watershed" for economic reform, but analysts caution details of its decisions are likely to be vague and implementation gradual.

The four-day session of the full 376-strong Communist Party Central Committee begins Saturday at a closely guarded private hotel in Beijing.

Known as the Third Plenum, it traditionally sets the economic tone for a government's five-year term.

In the past, such meetings have been used to signal far-reaching changes in how China does business, and state-run media say that anticipation has been building.

The official Xinhua news agency proclaimed that the plenum "is expected to be a watershed as drastic economic policies will be unveiled".

Other reports have singled out land reform as a key issue, while a government think-tank called for dismantling the residency registration system known as hukou, which restricts access to medical insurance and other benefits for migrants.

Cai Hongbin, a professor at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, said key issues such as urbanisation, the social safety net, taxation and financial reforms would be discussed.

"Historically, China has implemented ground-breaking reforms when the economy has faced some serious challenges," Nomura International economists in Hong Kong wrote in a report.

"However, we believe that pressures are not yet sufficient to demand such rapid implementation, while the reforms are more complex than they have been in the past."

Xinhua quoted experts including professors at the party's central school as saying any political reform would aim at "strengthening, not weakening" the organisation's leadership.

Cai said that, ultimately, economic reform cannot truly succeed without changes to how the government acts, such as reducing local authorities' interference in business.

"You can talk about all sorts of economic policy changes, in the end whether these policy changes will make a serious impact on the Chinese economy really depends on whether we will have serious government reforms," he said.

China's leadership says the economy, the world's second largest, needs to move away from reliance on state-financed investment projects and unleash the power of consumers and other private actors to propel growth.

Yao Wei, economist in Hong Kong, said: "The real test of Beijing's reform resolution will be the action taken in the following three to six months."

中国的新领导层11月举行了为期四天的大会，由376名共产党中央委员会成员参加，为中国政府未来五年内的经济发展制定计划和方针，为发展奠定基调。

在过去，这样的会议标志着中国经济发展的深刻变革。新华社宣称，十八届三中全会预计将成为经济发展的分水岭，新的经济政策将被揭晓。

其他报告指出这次会议将土地改革作为一个重要的议题。而政府的智囊机构呼吁废除户口登记制度，这个制度对于外出打工者来说，限制了他们享受医疗保险和其他福利的权利。

北京大学光华管理学院教授蔡宏斌说，会议上会讨论一些重要的议题，例如，城市化、社会保障、税收和金融改革。

“在历史上，当经济面临一些严峻的挑战时，中国会实施突破性的改革。”野村国际驻香港的经济学家在一份报告中写道。

“但是，我们相信，要求如此快速地去实现改革，压力真的很大，因为当前的改革比过去更复杂。”

新华社引用中央党校专家教授的话：任何政治改革都旨在“加强，而不是削弱”组织的领导的能力。

蔡说，若再不改变政府的行为，如地方政府减少对商务贸易的干涉，经济改革基本上不能算是真正的成功。

他说：“你可以谈论各种各样的经济政策的变化，但最后这些政策的变化是否影响中国的经济，实际取决于政府是否有重大的改革措施。”

中国的领导阶层说，作为世界第二大经济体，中国的经济需要减少对国有投资项目的依赖，利用消费者的力量和其他私有企业来推动经济增长。

香港经济学家姚炜说：“真正考验中国改革决心的是接下来三到六个月内采取的改革措施和行动。”