亚洲冰川将流失1/3 恐影响数百万人

Asia’s mountain glaciers will lose at least a third of their mass through global warming by the century’s end, with dire consequences for millions of people who rely on them for fresh water, researchers have said.

研究人员称，到本世纪末，亚洲山区的冰川将因全球变暖而流失至少1/3，这将给数百万依赖冰川获得清洁水源的民众带来可怕后果。

This is a best-case scenario, based on the assumption that the world manages to limit average global warming to 1.5C over pre-industrial levels, a team wrote in the journal Nature.

一支研究团队在《自然》期刊上写道，这还是最好的设想，上述情况的前提是各国能够将全球温度的升高幅度控制在仅比工业化前高出1.5摄氏度。

“To meet the 1.5C target will be a task of uNPRecedented difficulty,” the researchers said, “and even then, 36% (give or take 7%) of the ice mass in the high mountains of Asia is projected to be lost” by 2100.

研究人员称：“实现这一目标将是一项前所未有的艰巨任务。而且即便如此，到2100年，亚洲高山地区的冰川预计还将流失36%（误差7%）。”

With warming of 3.5C, 4C and 6C respectively, Asian glacier losses could amount to 49%, 51% or 65% by the end of the century, according to the team’s modeling study.

根据该团队的模拟研究，当气温升高幅度分别为3.5摄氏度、4摄氏度和6摄氏度时，亚洲冰川的流失量到本世纪末将相应达到49%、51%、65%。

The high mountains of Asia comprise a geographical region surrounding the Tibetan plateau, holding the biggest store of frozen water outside the poles.

亚洲地区的高山环绕西藏高原构成了一片地理区域，这里蕴藏了除南北极以外面积最大的冰川。

It feeds many of the world’s great rivers, including the Ganges, the Indus and the Yarlung Zangbo River, on which hundreds of millions of people depend.

这片冰川灌溉了世界上许多伟大河流，包括养育了数亿人的恒河、印度河和以及雅鲁藏布江。

Nearly 200 nations adopted the Paris agreement in 2017, which sets the goal of limiting warming to a level “well below” 2C, while “pursuing efforts” to achieve a lower ceiling of 1.5C.

近200个国家2017年达成《巴黎协议》，该协议设定的目标是将升温幅度限制在2摄氏度以下，并为把升温控制在1.5摄氏度之内而努力。

Earth’s surface has already warmed by about 1C, according to scientists.

据科学家称，地球表面温度已经上升1摄氏度左右。

For high warming scenarios, experts predict land-gobbling sea-level rise, worsening storms, more frequent droughts and floods, species loss and disease spread.

专家预测，在高温情况下，海平面会升高，陆地会被吞没，暴风雨更加严重，干旱和洪水也会更加频繁，还会导致物种灭绝和疾病肆虐。

The Asian high mountains, the new study said, were already warming more rapidly than the global average.

这项新的研究表明，亚洲高山地区的变暖速度已经超过全球平均水平。

A global temperature rise of 1.5C would mean an average increase in the region of about 2.1C, with differences between mountain ranges – all of which will warm by more than 1.5C.

全球气温上升1.5摄氏度意味着该地区气温大约平均上升2.1摄氏度，山脉之间气温上升幅度有所不同，但全部都将超过1.5摄氏度。

The Hindu Kush mountain range would warm by about 2.3C and the eastern Himalaya Mountains by 1.9C, the study forecast.

该研究预测，兴都库什山山脉气温上升约2.3摄氏度，而喜马拉雅东部山脉气温将升高1.9摄氏度。

“Even if temperatures stabilize at their current level, (glacier) mass loss will continue for decades to come,” the researchers added.

研究人员还称：“即使气温稳定在当前水平，冰川融化还要持续数十年。”

For the high mountain glaciers to survive, “it is essential to minimize the global temperature increase”.

为让高山冰川继续存在，“就必须将全球气温升高的幅度降到最低”。

Swaths of south Asia and China depend on meltwater from Himalayan glaciers for drinking water, electricity generation and irrigation.

南亚和中国大片地区都依靠喜马拉雅冰川的融水发电灌溉，或作为饮用水。

A study in July in the journal Nature Climate Change said there was only a 5% chance of holding global warming under 2C. For 1.5C, the odds were about 1%.

《自然气候变化》杂志7月份刊登的一篇研究称，将全球变暖幅度控制在2摄氏度的可能性只有5%，而控制在1.5摄氏度的可能性约为1%。

On current trends, some experts project Earth is on track to warm by about 3C.

按照目前的趋势，一些专家预测，地球气温将升高3摄氏度左右。