主要能源消费者对油价持观望态度

Airlines, trucking companies and other big energy consumers are betting on further oil price falls, with many reluctant to lock in at current levels amid fears prices could plunge if the global economy weakens further.

航空公司、货车运输公司及其他能源消费大户目前预测石油价格会进一步下降。鉴于市场担忧如果全球经济进一步放缓，油价可能会剧降，因而很多能源消费者都不愿意在目前的油价水平买进。

Consumers are largely on the sidelines of the oil market in spite of a 30 per cent drop in price, from $125 in March to $90 now, commodities bankers said. The price of Brent crude hit an 18-month low last week.

大宗商品银行家指出，尽管油价已经从3月份的每桶125美元下降到了现在的90美元，降幅达到30%，但石油市场大部分消费者仍然持观望态度。上周，布伦特原油价格已经降到了18个月以来的最低点。

Oil consumers fear the current slide in prices – largely due to slower economic growth in China, the main engine of oil demand, and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis – is only the beginning of a major sell-off. Saudi Arabia has this year boosted production to a 30-year high, further subduing prices.

石油消费者担心，目前主要由于石油消费大国中国经济增速放缓、欧元区主权债务危机导致的油价下跌只是一次油价大幅“跳水的开端。今年沙特的石油产量已经增加到了30年来的新高，进一步压低了油价。

“If the global economy continues to deteriorate, I will not be surprised if we see more downward pressure on oil prices, Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency, the oil watchdog, told the Financial Times.

国际能源署(IEA)首席经济学家比罗尔·毕洛(Fatih Birol)告诉英国《金融时报》：“如果全球经济继续恶化，那么油价下行的压力增大也是意料之中的事。

This wait-and-see approach mimics the behaviour of big consumers in 2010 at the start of the financial crisis, as prices plunged from a record high of nearly $150 to a low of $45. It could yet backfire if oil prices rise on the back of US and EU sanctions on Iran or if Saudi cuts production. “So far we have seen light hedging activity, said a New York-based commodities banker. “We expect some consumer buying if we [oil prices] go down another $10.

目前的观望态度与2010年金融危机伊始主要石油消费主体的表现如出一辙，当时油价从每桶接近150美元的历史高位下跌到45美元的低点。然而，一旦美国和欧盟对伊朗的制裁或者沙特减产导致油价上涨，就会事与愿违。纽约一位大宗商品银行家表示，“目前为止，对冲活动还不明显，如果油价再降10美元，我们预计消费者就会适当买入。

Companies keep hedging plans close to their chests, but anecdotal evidence confirms bankers’ views. Southwest Airlines, the US’s largest low-cost carrier, told investors this year that its hedge protection for the second quarter was “minimal.

企业纷纷制定了对冲计划，但坊间证据证实了银行家们的观点。美国最大的低成本航空公司西南航空公司(Southwest Airlines)告诉投资者，其第二季度的套期保值操作“极少。

Brent crude fell $1.03 to $89.93 in afternoon trading yesterday.

昨日下午交易中，布伦特原油价格下跌1.03美元，跌至每桶89.93美元。