国际英语资讯:News Analysis: Controversial referendum by Iraqi Kurds raises fears about opening Pandoras

BAGHDAD/CAIRO, Sept. 20 -- Tensions are flaring up as Iraqi Kurds are set to hold a controversial independence referendum next week, raising fears that it could open a Pandora's box of violence and conflicts.

Amid signs of heightened tensions, a curfew was imposed Tuesday in the ethnically-mixed northern city of Kirkuk, after one was killed and three others wounded when Turkmen security guards exchanged gunfire with some Kurds celebrating the upcoming vote.

The shooting came after a suicide car bombing that rocked Kirkuk on Saturday, in which three people were killed and nine others wounded.

On Monday, Iraq's Supreme Court issued a verdict to suspend the referendum in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region slated for Sept. 25, in response to the Kurdistan Parliament's vote on Friday to approve holding the referendum as scheduled.

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, who dismissed the referendum as unconstitutional, has warned that Baghdad is ready to use force if the referendum turns violent.

A new conflict will not only hinder Iraq's plan for reconciliation and reconstruction at a time when the war-torn country is near achieving full victory in defeating the terror group Islamic State (IS), but also sow new seeds of violence and instability in the already chaotic Middle East.

MAJOR REASONS BEHIND IRAQI KURDS' PUSH FOR INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM

Iraqi Kurds have a century-long dream of creating a Kurdish state in areas they control, which now have expanded to include many oil-rich areas that Kurdish fighters took over from IS militants over the past years.

The Kurds now want the northern oil-rich province of Kirkuk and parts of Nineveh, Diyala and Salahudin provinces to be incorporated into their region.

The Kurds used to live under the iron-fisted rule by former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. But since the end of the U.S.-led first Gulf War in 1991, they have gained a high degree of autonomy.

Masoud Barzani, president of the Kurdistan Regional Government, has been the leading figure pushing hard for the independence referendum.

For one reason, Barzani, leader of the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP), has exceeded his term in office that ended in 2017, and hoped to start the process of seeking independence before the next elections scheduled in early November.

Moreover, many believe that Barzani hopes to take advantage of the referendum to establish his status as the leader of the Kurdish independence movement.

"Barzani wants to accomplish independence through referendum and gain a political card in the region as the leader of the Kurdish movement," Nursin Atesoglu Guney, dean of the economic, administrative and social sciences faculty at Bahcesehir Cyprus University in Istanbul, was quoted by the Turkish paper Daily Sabah as saying.

REFERENDUM AS FIRST CONCRETE STEP TOWARD KURDISH INDEPENDENCE

A "yes" vote in the upcoming referendum does not mean the immediate independence of the Kurdistan region. Rather, it would be the first concrete step in the Kurdish movement toward declaring independence.

Such vote would give the Kurdistan Regional Government considerable bargain power to hold negotiations with the Iraqi government on the distribution of oil revenues, and control of some disputed territories.

In addition to the lack of international support, inner friction is also an obstacle to declaring independence by the Kurdistan Regional Government.

Though the KDP spearheaded the bid to hold the referendum, the opposition Kurdish parties such as the Change Movement and the Kurdistan Islamic Group have called for postponing the referendum and letting the Kurdistan Parliament to make the decision by passing a law.

As the two parties boycotted, 68 lawmakers of the 111-seat parliament did not show up for the vote on Friday.

Analysts said that even the Kurds finally split from Iraq, life would be very difficult for a newly-created Kurdish state as its territory is geographically landlocked.

Despite its rich oil resources, the region relies heavily on the Iraq-Turkey pipeline to export its oil, which could be closed by Turkey if it breaks away from Iraq.

POTENTIAL IMPACT ON MIDDLE EAST PEACE AND STABILITY

The international community, especially Turkey, Iran and the United States, has voiced strong opposition to the referendum.

Indeed, the referendum, whose result is widely predicted to be a "yes" vote, could have a potentially destabilizing effect on the already chaotic Middle East region.

First, a "yes" vote will damage Iraq's unity and territorial integrity. The separation of the oil-rich Kurdish region is set to deal a heavy blow to the country politically and economically, while it is still reeling from wars and terror attacks.

If the Iraqi government intervenes militarily, a bloody conflict could be inevitable as Kurdish Peshmerga fighters, known for their capability in fighting IS militants, will prove to be a viable enemy for Iraqi government forces.

Second, the referendum could aggravate the infighting within the Kurdistan region, especially between the two major factions the KDP and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, as they could vie for the control of the government and oil like in the 1990s when they had an armed conflict.

There are also worries that violence could erupt between the predominantly Sunni Kurds and ethnic minorities including Shiite Muslims and Turkmens, due to their different positions on the referendum and other feuds.

Third, Iraqi Kurds' independence movement could inspire other Kurds living in neighboring countries, adding to the chaos and instability that have already plagued the Middle East.

Behind the warnings by Iraq's neighboring countries such as Turkey, Iran and Syria lies the deep worry that Iraqi Kurds' success in seeking independence would have a domino effect that threatens their own territorial integrity.

Kurds make up about 19 percent of the Turkish population, and about 10 percent of the population in Iran and Syria.

On Tuesday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned of sanctions against the Iraqi Kurds over the referendum. Turkish Defense Minister Nurettin Canikli also warned that the Kurdish referendum would ignite "a new war in the region."

In a show of force, Turkish troops have held military drills along the Iraqi border in the past week ahead of the referendum.

A senior Iranian military official warned last week that the Kurdish referendum will create a new crisis in the region, which could be used by certain outside forces as an excuse to gain control of the region through intervention.

Amid the rising tensions, the United Nations and the U.S. government have called for resolving the Kurdish issue through peaceful dialogue.

On Friday, the White House slammed the Kurdish decision to hold the referendum as a "provocative and destabilizing" move, while urging the Kurds to hold "serious and sustained dialogue" with the Iraqi government.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Sunday also called for resolving the issue through "structured dialogue and constructive compromise," citing that the referendum would undermine the fight against terrorism.