人口定时炸弹：日本人“濒危”的8个迹象

要论世界上寿命最长的国家，日本总能遥遥领先。但是对于生育率极低的日本来说，这一长寿优势只能加剧恶性循环，甚至催生出了不少怪象，比如，成人纸尿裤销量超过婴儿纸尿裤，监狱变成养老院，和朋友结婚等等。专家估算，长此以往，日本人将在3776年灭绝。

Japan is dealing with what economists call a "demographic time bomb."

日本正面临经济学家所谓的“人口定时炸弹”威胁。

Through a vicious cycle of low fertility and low consumer spending, the country's economy has gradually shrunk over the last 25 years.

受制于低生育率和低消费性开支的恶性循环，日本的经济在过去25年正逐渐缩水。

People are living longer, and they're heaping greater social-security costs onto younger generations who aren't having kids to replace them — thereby furthering the cycle.

人们的寿命变长了，老人们滚雪球一样的社保负担被转嫁到了年轻一代的身上，而年轻一代又没有生育出可以替代自己的孩子，于是这种恶性循环进一步加剧。

Here are some of the most visible signs in daily life that the time bomb is ticking.

以下是最能反映日本人口炸弹危机的日常迹象。

There are now 68,000 people over 100 years old.

现在日本100岁以上的老人已经有68000位。

To put Japan's widespread aging in perspective, 2017 marked the 47th straight year that the country has broken its own record for the number of centenarians, or people living past their 100th birthday.

要想清楚意识到日本普遍老龄化的现状，有一个事实是你必须知道的：2017年是日本百岁老人数量连续第47年打破纪录。

In 2016, there were roughly 65,000 centenarians out of the total population of 127 million. The new total for 2017 stands at 67,824, The Asahi Shimbun reported in September.

2016年，日本1.27亿人口中，大约有65000位百岁老人。根据《朝日资讯》今年9月报道的新数据，2017年百岁老人总数达到了67824位。

Japan has the highest rate of centenarians out of any country, with 4.8 per 100,000 people. The US, the country with the most overall, has 2.2 per 100,000.

日本的百岁老人占比是全世界最高的，每10万人中就有4.8个百岁老人。在百岁老人总数最多的美国，每10万人中才有2.2个百岁老人。

Adult diapers outsell baby diapers.

成人纸尿裤销量超过婴儿纸尿裤。

Ever since 2011, sales of adult diapers in Japan have outpaced those of baby diapers.

自从2011年以来，日本成人纸尿裤的销量就超过了婴儿纸尿裤。

The trend reflects just how big the cohort of senior citizens is: People over 65 make up a larger demographic than any other in Japan. Of the 127.11 million people, about 26.7% of them are seniors.

这一潮流反映出老年群体是多么庞大：日本65岁以上的人比其他任何年龄段的人都要多。日本共有1.27亿人口，而老年人就占了26.7%。

That proportion is up 3.7 percentage points from six years ago.

老年人占的比例相比六年前上升了3.7个百分点。

2016 marked a 117-year low for fertility.

2016年见证了117年来日本生育率的新低。

Ever since 1899, the annual number of births in Japan had exceeded one million — until 2016.

自从1899年以来，日本每年出生的婴儿人数都超过了100万——这个趋势一致持续到2016年。

When government officials conducted a tally of total births last year, they counted about 20,000 shy of the benchmark. The death count, meanwhile, fell at around 1.3 million.

去年政府官员开展了年度出生人口统计，他们发现出生人口比基准少了2万人。与此同时，死亡人口比往年减少了130万人。

Young people have started "granny dumping."

年轻人开始“弃老”。

The word ubasute is an old Japanese word that translates to "granny dumping," and according to Japanese news sources, it's making a comeback.

“弃老”是日本的一个古老的词，可翻译为“抛弃老奶奶”。据日本媒体报道，这个词又再度时兴起来。

It describes the unfortunate practice of younger citizens bringing their senile elders to hospitals or charities and essentially abandoning them — generally because they can't afford care anymore.

如今的“弃老”指的是年轻人将家里的老人送到医院或福利机构，然后就此撒手不管——通常是因为他们再也负担不起赡养费用。

The trend still isn't widespread yet: One social worker estimates the total number of cases is in the low hundreds each year.

这种风气目前尚未流行：一个社会工作者估计，每年“弃老”的案件不超过500例。

Prisons are turning into nursing homes.

监狱正变成养老院。

About one-fifth of all crime committed in Japan is done by the elderly. Most of it is petty theft and shoplifting.

日本约有五分之一的犯罪活动是老年人作案。其中大多数是小额偷盗和入店行窃。

As crime rates among the elderly rise, prisons have effectively turned into nursing homes. Guards are made to bathe the inmates and help them get dressed, and experts say living conditions are too good to keep recidivism rates down.

随着老年人作案率的上升，监狱实际上正转变成养老院。监狱看守不得不帮囚犯洗澡穿衣，专家说，监狱里的生活条件太好了，所以很难将累犯率降下来。

Normally, younger relatives would take care of the inmates once they're released. But in some cases the costs (and loneliness) are simply too much to bear in a troubled economy, and seniors look to prison as the better alternative.

正常情况下，囚犯被释放后，会有年轻一些的亲人来照看。但是在经济不景气的条件下，有些老人出狱后的开支（和孤独）实在难以承受，所以他们将监狱视为更好的去处。

A doomsday clock counts down the seconds until extinction.

国家消亡的倒计时已经开始。

Over time, low, unchanging fertility rates (without additional immigration) could mean actual extinction for an entire country.

随着时间流逝，不变的低生育率（又没有移民流入）将意味着日本整个国家的消失。

In the short term, that could mean losing 34% of the country's population by 2100.

短期来看，这意味着日本人口将在2100年前减少34%。

Taking a longer view, Japanese researchers recently pinned down the expected date of extinction with a doomsday clock. The date, according to the latest fertility rates, is August 12, 3776.

长远来看，日本研究人员已经用末日钟算出了日本人灭绝的时间。根据最新的生育率来估算，日本灭绝的日期将是3776年8月12日。

Friends are getting married out of desperation.

绝望的日本人选择和朋友结婚。

One of the main traits of the demographic time bomb is that young people focus a lot of their time on work instead of socializing, largely to keep up economically.

人口定时炸弹的主要特征之一是年轻人为了保持经济独立花很多时间用于工作，而不是社交。

They still want to get married, however, so the compromise they're making is just partnering up with friends.

尽管如此，他们仍然想结婚，所以他们做出的让步是和朋友组成家庭。

It's a real-life version of that game "If we're both not married by the time we're 40..." — except people are playing it in their late 20s.

这就是那个游戏的现实版：“如果我们40岁前还没结婚就……”只不过日本人从25岁以后就开始玩了。

Employees are succumbing to 'death from overwork.'

员工们屈服于“过劳死”。

Long work hours are leading to a rise in cases of karoshi, or "death from overwork."

工作时间过长正在导致“过劳死”案件的增多。

A report from October, which examined karoshi and its cause of death, found more than 20% of people in a survey of 10,000 said they worked at least 80 hours of overtime a month — a signal of just how desperate young people are for extra income.

今年十月份的一份研究报告审视了过劳死及死因，发现受访的1万人中有超过20%表示，他们一个月至少加班80个小时，这说明年轻人为了多挣点钱是多么拼命。

Japan's government is taking steps to encourage people to leave work on time or take off one day entirely.

日本政府正采取措施鼓励人们按时下班或休假。