每个人都在想 詹皇的巅峰到底还有多长?

During his 15th NBA season, Cleveland Cavaliers star LeBron James is performing at a level that echoes the prime that saw him win four MVPs.

在他的第15个NBA赛季中，克利夫兰骑士队的球星勒布朗·詹姆斯在比赛中依旧表现出极高的水准，可以媲美他赢得了4个MVPs时的最佳状态。

As James nears his 33rd birthday later this month, his performance at that age stands up to any of his predecessors, including Michael Jordan's 1995-96 season that produced an MVP, a then-record 72 wins and a championship.

本月底，詹姆斯将迎来自己的33岁生日，他在这个年纪的表现足以跟那些伟大的前辈们相提并论，包括曾在1995 - 96赛季获得的MVP，并取得创纪录的72胜和总冠军的迈克尔·乔丹。

(Because James entered the NBA directly out of high school, NBA experience isn't the best way to compare how he's aging to his peers. After all, Jordan's 15th year was actually his final one in the NBA at age 40.)

（因为詹姆斯从高中直接进入NBA，关于球员老化，NBA其他球员的经验对詹姆斯来说不是太实用。）毕竟，乔丹的第15年实际上是他40岁时在NBA的最后一年。

Given his age and the heavy minutes James has played since coming to the NBA at age 18, including extended playoff runs with trips to the NBA Finals each of the past seven years, his ability to stave off a decline in play has been improbable. Has James managed to break the aging curve that governs most NBA players?

考虑到他的年龄和詹姆斯在18岁时进入NBA的大量的出场时间，包括在过去7年因为每一年都打到NBA总决赛中，这样的季后赛时间更长，他在比赛中避免下滑的能力是不可能的。詹姆斯成功地打破了统治大多数NBA球员的老化曲线吗?

Before this season, a look at James' all-in-one metrics during the regular season would have looked like a fairly typical NBA aging curve, albeit shifted with a far higher peak than virtually any player in league history has enjoyed.

在这个赛季之前，看看詹姆斯所有常规赛的表现，看起来就像一个典型的NBA老化曲线，虽然转换时保持巅峰的时间比联盟历史上的任何球员都要长得多

After a relatively poor rookie season — only by his high standards could winning Rookie of the Year and playing at an above-average level in the NBA as a teenager be considered relatively poor — James quickly leaped into superstardom and improved gradually from there. His four best seasons came from ages 24 through 28, a stretch interrupted only by a down performance from James in 2010-11, his first year with the Miami Heat. The best-fit curve suggests James peaking just before age 27, the expected time for an NBA player, and declining gently from there.

在经历了一个相对表现较差的新秀赛季后——也只有他，赢得了最佳新秀，而且打出高于NBA平均水平的水准，还会被人为对他个人来说是相对较差的赛季——詹姆斯很快就一跃成为超级明星，并逐渐从那里获得了进步。他的四个最佳赛季来自24岁到28岁，只有2010-11赛季在热火的第一年，相对表现较差。最合适的曲线表明，詹姆斯在27岁之前就达到了顶峰，并且可能从27岁开始，就慢慢的开始下滑。

The aging curve gets a bit more complicated when we consider James' playoff performance. Here's how that looks using the same chart:

当我们考虑詹姆斯的季后赛表现时，老化的曲线变得更加复杂。下面是如何使用同样的图表:

With the notable exception of 2009, when a limited Cleveland team lost in the Eastern Conference finals despite James delivering the best player win percentage in modern playoff history (since 1977-78, the first year individual turnovers were tracked), the curve now flattens out. James' past two postseasons have been about as good as any in his career outside of 2009. This is especially clear when we plot regular season and playoff performance together:

除了2009年的一个明显的例外，尽管捉襟见肘的骑士队在东部决赛中铩羽而归，詹姆斯还是打出来了有史以来最好的球员胜利贡献值(自1977 - 78年以来，联盟开始记录个人失误)09年以后，曲线又开始平稳。詹姆斯在过去两个赛季的表现和他在2009年之外的职业生涯一样好。当我们一起把常规赛和季后赛都考虑进去的时候，这一点特别清楚:

There's strong evidence to suggest James mastered the art of coasting after rejoining the Cavaliers. As Brian Windhorst noted before the season using research by our former colleague Tom Haberstroh, James has consistently been better in the second half of the past four seasons -- a split that wasn't previously apparent.

有有力的证据表明，詹姆斯在重新加入骑士队之后，已经掌握了保持状态平稳的艺术。正如赛季前布莱恩·温霍斯特(Brian Windhorst)用前同事汤姆·哈伯斯特罗(Tom Haberstroh)所做的研究指出，詹姆斯在过去四个赛季的后半段一直表现得更好——这一分水线以前并不明显。

This pacing is, of course, its own kind of concession to aging. Surely, if James felt he could still play at his playoff level over a full 82 games, he would have done it. Nonetheless, it suggests that James' age-related decline is more complex than charting his regular-season performance made it seem.

当然，这种节奏是对衰老的一种调整。当然，如果詹姆斯觉得他能82场场场都打出季后赛级别的高水准，他就会这么做。尽管如此，这表明詹姆斯与年龄有关的衰退，比他常规赛表现的图表更看起来复杂。