2018年新兴市场面临严峻考验

Emerging markets this year have been driven by the winds of a co-ordinated recovery in economic growth, with trade growing strongly, corporate earnings robust and interest rates still low on average across the EM universe.

新兴市场今年受到经济增长同步复苏的推动，贸易增长强劲，企业盈利稳健，整个新兴市场平均利率水平维持在低位。

But whether that environment will propel another year of strong gains for EM assets is another question. The big risks include the potential for a stronger US dollar and a China economic slowdown that could hit global demand for resources, several analysts say.

但是，这样的环境能否推动新兴市场资产实现又一年强劲盈利则是另一个问题。一些分析师表示，主要风险有美元可能走强以及中国经济可能放缓，后者将打击全球资源需求。

“The year 2018 may well be the toughest test yet for EM assets since the 2013 taper tantrum,” says David Hauner, head of economics for eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch in London.

美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)驻伦敦的东欧、中东和非洲经济主管戴维?豪纳(David Hauner)表示：“对于新兴市场资产而言，2018年很可能是自2013年‘缩减恐慌’(taper tantrum)以来最严峻的考验。”

“The clear and present danger is the combination of US monetary tightening and fiscal stimulus, which could conspire to push US nominal and real yields higher,” Mr Hauner adds.

豪纳说：“目前一个明显的危险是美国货币紧缩政策和财政刺激措施的结合，它们可能会一起推高美国国债的名义和实际收益率。”

During the 2013 taper tantrum, EM assets were clobbered by a surge in US Treasury bond yields brought about by the Federal Reserve signalling a desire to reduce the amount of money being pumped into the financial system.

2013年缩减恐慌时期，美联储(Fed)表示想要减少对金融体系注入的资金量，导致美国国债收益率上涨，令新兴市场资产遭到打击。

The concern now, according to Mr Hauner and other analysts, is that the proposed US tax reforms — if adopted — could trigger a resurgence in corporate capital flooding back to the America, thereby driving up the value of the US dollar. When the dollar appreciates against EM currencies, funds tend to flow out of EM assets and gravitate towards their dollar-denominated counterparts.

豪纳和其他分析师认为，现在人们担心的是，美国的税改计划——如果被采纳的话——可能会引发企业资本大量回流到美国，从而抬高美元的价值。当美元对新兴市场货币升值时，资金往往会从新兴市场资产中流出，流向以美元标价的资产。

However, opinion is divided on how the proposed US tax reform may play out. Arvind Rajan, head of global and macro at PGIM Fixed Income, a fund with $695bn in assets under management, says he does not expect the reforms to prompt a drastic change in US monetary policy as the Fed’s preferred price gauge remains well below 2 per cent.

然而，关于美国计划中的税改会产生什么影响产生了意见分歧。管理资产达6950亿美元的基金PGIM Fixed Income的全球和宏观经济主管阿尔温德?拉詹(Arvind Rajan)表示，他预计税改不会造成美国货币政策出现大幅变化，因为美联储关注的通胀率保持在远低于2%的水平。

“The passage of the tax bill would marginally increase the number of hikes that we should expect but I don’t expect the Fed to strike out in an entirely different direction,” he says.

他说：“税收法案的通过会略微增加加息次数，这我们应该预见到，但我不认为美联储会朝着完全不同的方向行动。”

The other main cloud hanging over the generally encouraging outlook for EMs is China’s incipient economic slowdown. Consensus Economics, a private group that polls economists projections, forecasts China’s GDP growth next year to moderate to 6.4 per cent, down from the official 6.9 per cent posted in the second quarter of this year.

笼罩在新兴市场总体乐观前景上方的另一团乌云是中国渐渐出现的经济放缓。据调查经济学家预测的私人机构“共识经济学公司”(Consensus Economics)预计，明年中国的国内生产总值(GDP)增长将放缓到6.4%，低于今年第二季度公布的6.9%的官方数字。

“Growth momentum [in China] has started to ease since the third quarter and we believe the slowdown is likely to be a sustained trend in 2018,” says Shen Jianguang, chief economist at Mizuho Securities in Asia. “This is mainly the result of policy tightening, including financial deleveraging, anti-pollution controls and new curbs on the overheated housing market.’’

瑞穗证券(Mizuho Securities)亚洲首席经济学家沈建光表示：“（中国）增长势头自第三季度开始减缓，我们认为放缓趋势在2018年可能会延续。这主要是政策紧缩的结果，包括金融去杠杆、治理污染相关控制以及对过热的房地产市场的新限制。”

China’s slowdown is likely to be expressed mainly in a cooling of its real estate market, with October numbers already showing a significant ebbing of growth momentum in property investment, new home starts and sales. Nevertheless, consumer spending is likely to remain strong next year as incomes continue to rise strongly and the willingness to consume among the younger generation stays buoyant.

中国经济放缓的主要表现可能是房地产市场的降温，10月份的数据已经显示房地产投资、新房开工和销售的增长势头出现显著放缓。不过，明年消费者支出可能保持强劲，因为收入增长依然强劲，而且年轻一代的消费意愿仍然旺盛。

So if both of the big risks for EMs — the Fed and a Chinese slowdown — remain contained, investors may feel liberated enough to concentrate on other more positive narratives, say analysts.

因此，分析师表示，如果新兴市场面临的这两大风险——美联储和中国经济放缓——继续受到抑制，投资者可能会感到足够的自由度去专注于其他更积极的观点。

“Basically, market turbulence in the first half of the year should be seen as a buying opportunity for emerging markets,” Mr Hauner says.

豪纳说：“基本上，今年上半年的市场动荡应该被视作新兴市场的一个买入机会。”

Chief among these during 2017 has been a strong corporate earnings picture. Earnings per share growth of the companies included in the MSCI EM index — the leading benchmark for EMs equities — are on course to rise 22.4 per cent this year, according to BofA figures, with some countries such as South Korea, Turkey and Mexico showing a strong outperformance with 53.3 per cent, 40.5 per cent and 26.1 per cent, respectively.

2017年最突出的现象就是企业盈利的强劲表现。据美国银行(Bank of America)数据，新兴市场股票的主要基准MSCI新兴市场指数(MSCI emerging markets index)所涵盖企业的每股收益增长率今年将达到22.4%，韩国、土耳其和墨西哥等部分国家的表现则更加优秀，将分别达到53.3%、40.5%和26.1%。

BofA is predicting EPS growth to moderate to 12.7 per cent next year, still a robust performance in spite of the obvious slowdown from this year. India, South Africa, China, Indonesia and Chile are among the predicted outperformers next year, the investment bank says. In terms of industry sector, earnings are expected to be strongest in consumer discretionary, healthcare and information technology.

美国银行预测明年每股收益增长率将放缓至12.7%，尽管与今年相比明显放缓，但表现依然强劲。这家投资银行表示，预计印度、南非、中国、印度尼西亚和智利明年会有出众表现。就行业而言，预计盈利最强劲的将是非必需消费品、医疗及信息科技领域。