伯南克的话应该怎么听？

How should investors react to Ben Bernanke’s much-anticipated speech last Friday at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium of central bankers? Here are key takeaways and, more importantly, what the remarks by the Federal Reserve’s chairman imply for markets.

听了本·伯南克(Ben Bernanke)上周五在杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)央行行长年度研讨会上的讲话，投资者应如何行动？以下总结了这场广受期待的演讲的要点，而更重要的是，美联储主席的话对市场意味着什么？

Perhaps with an eye on protecting his legacy (and responding to political attacks), Mr Bernanke went out of his way to provide a robust defence of the Fed’s unconventional monetary policy. He did so using historical analyses, some preliminary model results and whatever academic work he could find for what is still “unfamiliar territory.

或许是为了保护自己在历史上的名声（也是为了回击政界的攻击），伯南克花了很大功夫为美联储的非常规货币政策进行了有力的辩护。他使用了历史分析法，引用了一些初步的模型结果，以及他在这个仍然“比较陌生的领域能够找到的任何学术成果。

Mr Bernanke left no doubt that he is willing to continue to press the policy envelope further out – even while acknowledging that “both the benefits and costs of non-traditional monetary policy are uncertain.

伯南克明白无误地表明了自己的立场：他愿意继续突破政策极限，即便他承认“非传统货币政策的利弊都不确定。

His willingness to use imperfect tools to pursue what have been largely elusive macroeconomic objectives is more than just a function of the “daunting economic challenges facing the US. He believes that the domestic headwinds reflect more cyclical structural factors. He rightly worries that, the longer they persist, the greater the threat that cyclical problems could become structural in nature.

伯南克之所以愿意使用不完美的工具，以追求很大程度上难以捉摸的宏观经济目标，不仅是因为美国面临“严峻的经济挑战。他认为，美国国内的一些不利形势，反映出更多周期性的结构因素。伯南克正确地担心，这些因素持续的时间越长，周期性问题转变为结构性问题的危险就越大。

Echoing the minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Mr Bernanke stressed that he is not looking for just any pickup in jobs. He is correctly targeting a “sustained improvement in labour conditions. This suggests that he would keep his foot on the policy accelerator even if employment indicators start to ameliorate.

伯南克的讲话呼应了联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)最近一次会议的会议纪要。他强调，他的目标不仅是就业情况好转。他正确地将目标定为“就业情况的持续改善。这似乎表明，即便就业指标开始出现起色，伯南克也会随时准备踩下政策油门。

Mr Bernanke also sees a need to “take out insurance against the realisation of downside risks. I suspect that this reflects concerns about the US fiscal cliff, Europe’s debt crisis, and geopolitical instability in the Middle East.

伯南克还认为，有必要“付诸保险手段，防止经济下行风险变成现实。我怀疑，这反应了人们对以下问题的担心：美国财政跌落悬崖，欧洲债务危机，以及中东地区地缘政治的不稳定。

While signalling that both baseline analysis and risk scenarios justify greater policy activism, he stopped short of providing details on the individual measures he favours.

尽管伯南克暗示基线分析和风险情景都提供了加大政策力度的理由，但他没有说明自己青睐哪些具体举措。

Instead, he retained optionality on an open-ended list, also managing to frighten short sellers who doubt his ability to deliver.

相反，伯南克保留了自由选择采取各种举措的权利，同时吓阻那些怀疑其执行力的卖空者。

Investors with long market positions cheered the speech. Indeed, every major market segment traded higher in price – from equities to government bonds and from corporate credit to commodities. It is tempting to attribute this broad price rally to the belief that all financial assets will benefit uniformly from repeated injection of Fed liquidity. But this is where investors should be more nuanced.

伯南克的讲话令持有多头头寸的投资者欢欣鼓舞。事实上，从股市到国债市场，从公司债券市场到大宗商品市场，所有主要市场的行情都有所走高。我们容易将普遍的涨势归结为这样一个信念：美联储反复向市场注入流动性，所有金融资产都将均等获益。但正是在这一点上，投资者应该进行更加细腻的把握。

Depending on the market segment, there can be significant and variable gaps between what Mr Bernanke is willing to do (a lot, and bolstered by the fact that the Fed is undershooting both components of its dual mandate); what he is able to do (more limited since he is forced to resort to imperfect tools and without the support of other policy making entities); and ultimate effectiveness (even more limited given sluggish policy transmission mechanisms and insufficient global policy co-ordination).

视市场部门不同，以下三者之间可能存在显著且程度不同的差距：伯南克愿意做的（他愿意做的有很多，考虑到美联储的两大任务——促就业和稳物价——都没有触及目标，情况就更是如此），伯南克能够做到的（更加有限，因为伯南克只能利用一些不完美的工具，也没有其他政策制定实体的支持），以及最终的有效性（与前面两点相比这更加有限，因为政策的传导机制不灵敏，全球政策的协调性也不高）。

Investors should not fight the Fed when it comes to what this institution, with its printing press, can deliver with a high degree of confidence – namely anchoring the front end of the US Treasury curve (up to the seven-year point as an illustration) and repressing related volatility. With renewed purchases of securities and its willingness to extend the guidance language into 2015, the Fed can keep these rates artificially low for quite a while. Long maturity US Treasuries are a trickier proposition for the Fed.

如果美联储信心十足地采取什么行动，投资者们不应反其道而行之。毕竟，美联储掌握着发钞权，它可以固定美国国债收益率曲线的前端（比方说7年），并抑制相关的波动性。美联储可推出新一轮证券购买计划，并表示愿意将对利率的指导性意见延续到2015年，这意味着美联储可以在相当长的时期人为压低利率。美国长期国债对美联储是个更加棘手的问题。

This favours a number of assets including high-quality short and intermediate maturity corporate bonds, agency mortgages, related sales of volatility and even some high-quality non-agency mortgages and structured products. It also supports hard assets, such as gold, where people go in an attempt to protect against the potential risk of higher inflation.

这对以下一些资产是个利好：优质中短期公司债券，机构抵押贷款(agency mortgage)，波动性相关交易，甚至一些非机构抵押贷款，以及结构性产品。这对一些硬资产也是个利好，比如黄金。人们出于防范通胀升高的潜在风险考虑而购入此类资产。

The temptation to extrapolate this argument to other risk markets is tempting. But investors should recognise that the Fed has much less control on prices in the equity and high-yield segments. Similarly, a differentiated analysis is warranted for currency positioning.

将这个分析过程推广到其他风险市场是个诱人的想法。但投资者应看清一点：就股市和高收益率市场而言，美联储对行情的控制力要低得多。类似的，外汇市场也肯定需要不同的分析。

Here, fundamentals – whether domestic or international – can overwhelm the impact of Fed action. This is especially true in today’s global economy; one that is in a synchronised slowdown, gripped by an unusual level of political polarisation in Europe and the US, and lacking any sustained cross-border policy co-ordination.

在这里，基本面因素（无论是美国国内还是国际的因素）可能压倒美联储行动的影响。就如今的全球经济情况而言尤其如此。如今全球各国经济同步减速，制约因素包括：欧洲和美国在政治上出现不寻常的两极分化，以及缺乏任何持续的跨国政策协调。

Technicals are also an issue. There are consequential differences among asset classes when it comes to the balance between traders and long-term investors.

技术面因素也是一个问题。就交易商与长期投资者之间的平衡而言，不同资产类别之间的差异很大。

Mr Bernanke’s speech should answer most questions on whether he is willing to lead his Fed colleagues deeper into experimental monetary policy. He is. Yet in extrapolating the market impact, investors would be well advised to differentiate. Particularly in today’s extremely fluid global economy, there can be sudden lapses in some markets when it comes to comparing Mr Bernanke’s willingness with his effectiveness.

伯南克的讲话，应该可以解决关于以下问题的大部分疑问，即：他是否愿意带领美联储进行更深入的货币政策试验。答案是：他愿意。至于这对市场的影响，投资者绝对应该视不同市场的情况而做不同的分析。特别是如今全球经济极度不稳，在比较伯南克的意愿与有效性时，某些市场可能突然转向。

Mohamed El-Erian is chief executive and co-chief investment officer of Pimco

本文作者穆罕默德·埃尔-埃利安是太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)首席执行官和联合首席投资官