长沙市推出1300亿美元刺激计划

Changsha, a gritty industrial city in central China, has set out a $130bn investment plan that could pave the way for other local governments to launch stimulus programmes as the country’s economic growth slows.

长沙，中国中部一座彪悍的工业城市，推出了一项规模达1300亿美元的投资计划。在中国经济增长放缓之际，该计划可能为中国其他地方政府推出刺激计划铺平道路。

The central government has vowed to avoid a repeat of its mammoth 2010-10 stimulus, which led to soaring debts and inflation. But it has also started to call for more investment to support the economy, opening the door for growth-hungry local governments to unveil ambitious spending targets.

中国中央政府已表示绝不会再次推出像2010至2010年那种规模庞大的经济刺激。那次的经济刺激造成了债务和通胀飙升的后果。但中央政府也已开始呼吁增加投资、以支持经济，这为渴望增长的地方政府推出雄心勃勃的支出计划打开了大门。

Changsha, capital of Hunan province, is the first to announce a comprehensive plan. Analysts said the move made clear that China’s top priority now was to prop up the flagging economy, which expanded 7.6 per cent, a three-year low, in the second quarter.

湖南省省会长沙是第一个宣布推出全面支出计划的城市。分析人士表示，此举清楚地表明，中国目前的当务之急是为日趋疲软的经济提供支撑。中国经济第二季度增幅为7.6%，是三年来最低水平。

“This is the beginning of a new wave of fiscal stimulus led by China’s local governments, in response to the recent green light given by Wen Jiabao, China’s premier, to promote investment and expand employment, said Shen Jianguang, an economist with Mizuho Securities.

瑞穗证券(Mizuho Securities)经济学家沈建光说：“中国总理温家宝最近提出要促进投资、增加就业以后，由长沙开头，中国各地方政府可能都会推出新的财政刺激计划。

But there were questions about whether Changsha could finance its plan and worries that another spending binge would lead to wasteful investment, harming China’s long-term economic outlook.

但有人质疑长沙市政府能否筹集足够资金完成此计划。也有人担心，再来一轮大举支出，可能导致投资出现浪费，对中国长期经济前景造成伤害。

“There are disagreements about how much the government should stimulate, and there are constraints both on the monetary and the fiscal side, otherwise we would have seen more of these [investment plans] by now, said Jian Chang, an economist with Barclays.

巴克莱(Barclays)经济学家常健表示：“人们还未就政府刺激的适当规模达成一致。货币和财政方面都有一些限制，否则现在我们应该已经看到更多这种（投资计划）出台。

When the global financial crisis erupted in 2010, China unleashed a debt-fuelled stimulus that propelled the country to a strong recovery, but saddled its banks with problem loans and fuelled a property bubble.

2010年全球经济危机爆发时，中国推出了一轮债务驱动的刺激计划。该计划促使中国经济实现强劲复苏，但也让银行业背上了不良贷款的包袱，并吹高了房地产泡沫。

That has led central government to be far more cautious this year in the face of the economic slowdown. But local governments, which have seen their revenues crumble as land sales have cooled, have been raring to ramp up investment and appear to have the political backing to push ahead with such plans.

中央政府从中得到了教训，今年在面对经济增长放缓变得谨慎得多。但受土地出让转冷影响而收入骤减的地方政府，一心想增加投资，并且在推动此类计划时似乎获得了政治支持。

Changsha, a city of 7m, aims to spend Rmb829bn ($130bn) on 195 projects, ranging from an airport expansion to road construction, waste treatment plants and improving the look of the city.

长沙，这个拥有700万人口的城市，计划在195个项目上投入8290亿元人民币（合1300亿美元），项目范围涵盖机场扩建、道路工程、垃圾处理厂建设和市容建设等各个方面。

“Although Changsha’s economic situation remains very good, we cannot ignore the pressures and we must encourage stable, healthy growth, Chen Run’er, the city’s Communist party chief, was cited as saying by China News Agency.

新华社援引长沙市委书记陈润儿的话说：“尽管长沙经济基本面依然非常好，但我们不能忽视种种压力，而必须鼓励稳定、健康的增长。

The announcement came as the State Council, or cabinet, said it had approved a plan to promote the development of central provinces. It urged local governments to focus on equipment manufacturing and high-tech industries as well as investing in infrastructure such as airports.

就在长沙市宣布其计划之际，中国国务院通过了一份促进中部地区崛起的意见。国务院敦促各地方政府重点发展装备制造业和高技术产业，并重点投资机场等基础设施项目。

Essential numbers were missing from Changsha’s announcement, which made it hard to gauge its potential effect. For example, it did not say over what length of time the money would be spent, nor did it say how many of the projects were new.

长沙市政府的通告缺乏一些必要数据，因此我们难以对其潜在影响做出评估。比如，长沙市政府未说明此轮投资将在多长时间内完成，也没有说明有多少项目是新项目。

It was also unclear how the city would bankroll the spending, with the headline target equivalent to 147 per cent of Changsha’s gross domestic product last year. It is also more than one-fifth the size of the Rmb4tn stimulus that China launched in 2010, despite the fact that this earlier money was spent nationwide while Changsha is a single municipality.

长沙市政府将如何为支出计划进行融资，这也是个未知数。长沙市政府此计划的总支出目标是该市去年地区生产总值(GDP)的1.47倍，超过2010年中国4万亿刺激计划的五分之一。不过，当时那4万亿是在中国全国各地支出的总和，而长沙只是一个城市。

Mr Shen said local governments often overstated their investment plans and that the final amount spent might only be a third of the initial target.

沈建光表示，地方政府常常夸大其投资计划，最终支出规模可能只有最初计划的三分之一。

Changsha said it would invite “global financial institutions to participate in the investment, alongside the government and local banks.

长沙市政府表示将邀请“国际金融机构与自己和地方银行一同投资。

“Financing is a problem, said Zhang Zhiwei, an economist with Nomura. “To what extent this plan can be realistically implemented largely depends on access to bank loans.

野村证券(Nomura)经济学家张智威表示：“融资是个问题。这份计划能在多大程度上实际执行，很大程度上取决于银行贷款情况。

Banks in effect cut off local governments from lending over the past two years after concerns about the debts they had accumulated during the previous stimulus. Yet regulators have started to loosen the reins in recent weeks, telling banks they can lend to projects that are likely to deliver good returns.

因对上一轮经济刺激中累积的债务感到担心，银行在过去两年中事实上切断了对地方政府的贷款。但监管机构最近几周开始放松控制，允许银行向可能带来良好回报的项目发放贷款。

Local governments have responded to the loosening of policy by presenting large investment plans.

政策一放松，各地方政府纷纷推出大规模投资计划。

Xi’an, capital of northern Shaanxi province, said this week it would build nine underground train lines, adding to the six it was planning to build. Meanwhile, Guizhou province in the south said it wanted to spend about Rmb3tn on the development of its tourism industry.

西安（中国北方省份陕西省省会）市政府本周表示，可能在已纳入规划的6条地铁线之外，再建设9条地铁线。同时，中国南方的贵州省政府表示，想投资3万亿元人民币左右，用于发展该省的旅游业。