投行涉足改变铝业生态

The arrival of investment banks in the aluminium market has triggered a shake-up in the $100bn industry that is forcing producers from Alcoato Rusaland consumers such as BMWand Coca-Colato change the way they do business.

投资银行更多涉足铝市场，导致这个价值1000亿美元的行业发生巨大调整，正在迫使从美国铝业(Alcoa)到俄罗斯铝业(Rusal)的一系列铝生产商以及宝马(BMW)和可口可乐(Coca-Cola)等用铝企业改变经营方式。

The increasingly dominant role of banks including Goldman Sachs, JPMorganand Deutsche Bank– as well as traders such as Glencore– has prompted a surge to record levels in the premium consumers pay for metal over the benchmark price set at the London Metal Exchange.

高盛(Goldman Sachs)、摩根大通(JPMorgan)和德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)等投行以及嘉能可(Glencore)等交易商在铝市场日益占据主导地位，导致用铝企业为这种金属支付的溢价飙升至创纪录水平。这里的溢价是相对伦敦金属交易所(LME)的基准价格而言。

Aluminium is the second most widely-used metal after steel, found in everything from aircraft to fizzy drinks cans. For years, the market has been a low-profile business handled by specialist merchants and producers, but in recent years investment banks have become more involved.

铝仅次于钢，是使用范围第二广的金属，应用于从飞机到碳酸饮料罐等各种产品。多年来，铝市场一直十分“低调，由专营商和生产商掌控，但近几年来，投行已越来越多地参与进来。

The banks can lock in a guaranteed return by storing the metal in giant warehouses, allowing them to bid up prices for the metal and remove supplies from the market.

投行可以把铝囤积在大型仓库中，进而抬高铝价并减少市场上的供应，最终锁定有保证的回报。

The process has pushed premiums for physical aluminium to record highs in excess of $250 a tonne, up by more than half since the start of the year. As a percentage of the aluminium LME price, global premiums are at a record 13 per cent, after averaging 5 per cent between 2007 and 2011.

这种做法将现货铝的溢价推升至每吨250美元以上、达到创纪录高点，相对于今年年初的水平，升幅逾50%。以LME铝价为基准，全球铝溢价率达到创纪录的13%，而2007年到2011年的平均溢价率是5%。

The wild moves in aluminium prices will be the main topic of discussion at the industry’s largest annual gathering which begins today in Moscow.

铝行业今日会在莫斯科召开其规模最大的年度会议，价格的疯狂走势势必成为会议的主要议题。

Executives and traders said that because of the dramatic moves in premiums, producers and consumers of aluminium were likely to move away from their traditional annual contracts set at fixed premiums to LME prices.

业内高管和交易员表示，由于溢价大幅上升，铝生产商和用铝企业很可能会改变它们传统的制定年度合约的方式（即以LME价格加固定溢价来制定年度价格）。

“Producers are looking to sell on shorter term or floating premium, said a trader at one large aluminium producer. Traders and analysts said that consumers would also probably seek shorter-term deals.

一家大型铝生产商的交易员说：“生产商正考虑基于较短期合约或浮动溢价来出售铝。交易员和分析师表示，用铝企业也可能会寻求较短期的交易。

The situation has been exacerbated by long queues to withdraw metal from warehouses registered with the LME, which sets the rate at which companies must deliver it out.

从LME注册仓库提出金属要经历漫长的等待，这加剧了上述趋势。LME设定了仓库交付金属的速度标准。

Goldman, JPMorgan and Barclayshave all bought LME warehousing groups, as have traders Glencore and Trafigura.

高盛、摩根大通和巴克莱(Barclays)全都购买了LME仓储集团，嘉能可和托克(Trafigura)也是如此。

Traders estimate that the large majority of global inventories, which stand at more than 10m tonnes, enough to build 150,000 Boeing 747s, are tied up by banks or traders.

交易员估计，全球绝大部分的铝库存由投行或交易商把持。全球铝库存超过1000万吨，足够建造15万架波音747飞机(Boeing 747)。

Oleg Deripaska, chief executive of Moscow-based Rusal, writes in the FT today that about 65 per cent of LME’s aluminium stocks were tied-up in financial deals.

总部位于莫斯科的俄罗斯铝业的首席执行官奥列格·德里帕斯卡(Oleg Deripaska)今日在英国《金融时报》撰文称，约65%的LME铝库存锁定在金融合约中。