罗斯柴尔德的王朝传承

In recent years, critics of capitalism complained that Goldman Sachs alumni ran too many governments and central banks. Now they can return to an older target. Emmanuel Macron’s rise to become president of France is a reminder that Rothschild is still going strong after 200 years.

近几年，批评资本主义的人士抱怨“高盛(Goldman Sachs)帮”把持了太多政府和央行。现在，他们可以把注意力重新投向一个更古老的靶子。埃马纽埃尔?马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)当选法国总统，提醒人们已有200年历史的罗斯柴尔德（Rothschild，又译为“洛希尔”）依然强盛。

The dynasty no longer wields the power it did in the 19th century. But among boutique investment banks, its shares have performed almost as well as US rivals Moelis and Evercore since 2017, the year Rothschild brought together its French and British holding companies under one roof. Maintaining that momentum will be the job of Alexandre de Rothschild. He takes over from his father David as chairman of Rothschild & Co later this year, in banking’s most telegraphed succession.

罗斯柴尔德“王朝”不再手握19世纪时的那种权力。但自2017年（那一年罗斯柴尔德将其法国和英国控股公司并入同一家集团）以来，在精品投行中，罗斯柴尔德股票的表现几乎与美国对手Moelis和Evercore一样出色。维持这种势头将是亚历山大?罗斯柴尔德(Alexandre de Rothschild)的大任。今年晚些时候，他将从父亲戴维（David，文首图左二）手中接过罗斯柴尔德集团(Rothschild & Co)董事长一职，这将是银行业中消息传得最广的一次接班。

Three-fifths of profit comes from the global advisory franchise, where Mr Macron once plied his trade. It is already the sixth-biggest adviser by number of deals, but is conspicuously underweight in the US. Expanding there means competing with bulge-bracket rivals and boutiques on their own turf — challenging for a group that tends to hire individuals rather than expensively poaching whole teams.

罗斯柴尔德五分之三的利润来自全球咨询业务，马克龙就曾在罗斯柴尔德从事这项业务。就罗斯柴尔德提供咨询服务的交易数量来看，它已经是第六大咨询商，但它的美国业务明显薄弱。要在美国扩张，意味着罗斯柴尔德要与大型投行和精品投行在它们的主场上竞争——这对倾向于雇佣个人，而不是重金挖走整个团队的罗斯柴尔德而言是一个挑战。

Rothschild also wants to reduce its dependence on profitable but cyclical advisory work. It has two other divisions. Merchant banking is growing but small, with revenues just over a tenth of the advisory business. Wealth and asset management is potentially lucrative; the group is targeting a 20 per cent operating margin by 2020, compared with under 7 per cent now. But it is on the small side too, with assets of just 67bn. Franco-German Oddo BHF and the mid-sized Swiss private banks have over 100bn each.

罗斯柴尔德还希望减少对获利丰厚但具有周期性的咨询业务的依赖。该集团有其它两项业务。商业银行业务正在增长，但规模还很小，收入仅为其咨询业务收入的十分之一多一点。财富和资产管理业务可能有利可图；该集团的目标是到2020年，把该业务的营运利润率从目前的不到7%提高到20%。但在这个领域，罗斯柴尔德的体量也很小，其所管理的资产仅为670亿欧元。法德联合经营的Oddo BHF和那些中等规模的瑞士私人银行每家管理的资产都超过1000亿欧元。

So too does Edmond de Rothschild, the Swiss-listed company chaired by Mr de Rothschild’s cousin. The two groups own small stakes in each other. But past disputes suggest the obvious course of action — combining the two — could take ages. Family control can foster inertia as well as longevity. No wonder the impatient Mr Macron went into politics.

爱德蒙德罗斯柴尔德(Edmond de Rothschild)也是如此，这家在瑞士上市的公司的董事长是戴维?罗斯柴尔德的远亲。这两家集团互相持有对方的少量股份。但过去的争端表明，显而易见的方案——将二家合二为一——可能需要花很长时间。家族控股可能让企业长盛不衰，也可能助长惰性。难怪不耐烦的马克龙进入了政界。