美国通胀升至近一年最高水平

The Federal Reserve’s favoured inflation measure picked up to its strongest level in almost a year in February, supporting expectations that a solid economy and tight labour market are pushing price growth towards the central bank’s target.

美联储(Federal Reserve)的首选通胀指标2月升至近一年来最高水平，支持有关方面的预期：稳健的经济和偏紧的劳动力市场正将价格涨速推向美国央行的目标水平。

The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy rose 1.6 per cent on the year, the largest increase since April 2017, according to a report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

根据美国经济分析局(Bureau of Economic Analysis)的报告，剔除食品和能源之后的个人消费支出价格指数同比上涨1.6%，达到2017年4月以来的最大涨幅。

While that is well shy of the Fed’s 2 per cent target, the three-month annualised rate of gain is 2.8 per cent, said Michael Feroli of JPMorgan Chase. He predicted that year-on-year figures will continue to push higher in the coming months, taking inflation close to the Fed’s goal.

摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)的迈克尔?费罗利(Michael Feroli)表示，尽管这仍远低于美联储2%的通胀目标，但最近三个月的年化价格涨速达到2.8%。他预测未来几个月的同比数据将继续上行，使通胀接近美联储的目标。

Core inflation has not exceeded 2 per cent since April 2017, complicating the picture for a central bank that has been gradually reducing its stimulus programmes. This year the Fed has been putting less weight on sluggish inflation numbers as the buoyant labour market bolsters confidence that it is on track to hit its target.

自2017年4月以来，核心通胀率一直未超过2%，这使近年逐渐缩减其刺激计划的美国央行面对的局面复杂化。今年以来，美联储对疲软通胀数据不再看得很重，因为强劲的劳动力市场增强了官员们对于通胀将会触及目标的信心。

The central bank’s median forecast this month suggested core price growth will modestly overshoot the 2 per cent target next year, supporting arguments for further increases in short-term interest rates. Among the factors lifting price growth in February was higher healthcare prices — a notable development given the role healthcare has played in recent years holding overall inflation back.

美国央行本月发布的中值预测似乎显示，核心价格涨幅明年将轻微超出2%的目标水平，支持进一步上调短期利率的主张。推动2月份通胀上扬的因素包括医疗价格上涨——考虑到近年来医疗费用是拖累整体通胀的因素，这一发展值得注意。

“The overshoot [relative to what would be forecast based on consumer price index data] largely reflects a second straight jump in the hospital services component, which accounts for 10.4 per cent of the index,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said. “After years of margin compression, hospitals appear to be trying to exert pricing power”.

“通胀较高（相对于根据消费者价格指数数据预测的水平）主要反映了医院服务板块连续第二个月出现跃升，该板块占指数的10.4%，”潘西恩宏观经济咨询公司(Pantheon Macroeconomics)首席经济学家伊恩?谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示。“经历了多年的利润率压缩之后，医院似乎在试图动用定价能力”。

Personal income and personal spending were up on the month by 0.4 per cent and 0.2 per cent respectively. Economists are expecting a slight easing of economic growth in the first quarter compared with the revised 2.9 per cent annual rate reported for the fourth quarter of 2017. According to the Atlanta Fed, first-quarter growth is on track to be around 2.4 per cent.

个人收入和个人支出分别环比上涨0.4%和0.2%。经济学家们预计，相比2017年第四季度修正后的2.9%年化增长率，今年第一季度经济增长将轻微放缓。亚特兰大联储(Atlanta Fed)表示，第一季度增长将达到2.4%左右。

That would still represent above-trend growth, however, and tax cuts and public spending increases are expected to add fuel to the recovery in the coming months. The Fed raised rates last week and is predicting another two increases this year. Some economists expect policymakers to lift the outlook to three further rises.

然而，这仍将代表着高于趋势线的增长，而减税和加大公共支出预计会在未来几个月给经济复苏添加燃料。美联储上周决定加息，并预计今年还将两次上调利率。一些经济学家预计政策制定者将调高预测至今年还将加息三次。

A gauge of consumer sentiment rose to its highest level since 2004 in March, according to the University of Michigan, highlighting the bright outlook among US households.

根据密歇根大学(University of Michigan)的数据，美国消费者信心指数3月升至2004年以来最高水平，突显美国家庭看好自己的前景。