中国股市跌至熊市,金融体系面临挑战

SHANGHAI — Months of struggling with economic problems at home and bickering with President Trump over trade are starting to take their toll on China’s financial health.

上海——在国内经济问题上持续数月的斗争，以及同特朗普总统在贸易方面的争吵，对中国的金融健康已经开始造成损害。

China’s stock market has now fallen close to levels not seen since a crash shocked global investors three years ago. An elite Chinese think tank affiliated with the government warned this week that the chances of a financial panic had risen significantly, shaking markets even more.

中国股市现在的跌落水平是自三年前震惊全球投资者的暴跌后所未见的。中国政府下属的一个精英智库于本周警告，出现金融恐慌的可能性显著上升，这进一步震撼了市场。

Chinese officials are trying to help factories deal with American tariffs by weakening the value of the country’s currency. That makes Chinese goods more competitive abroad, but it also gives investors inside and outside China a reason to take their money out of the country. And it offers Mr. Trump an opportunity to criticize Beijing — in the past, he has railed against the country for weakening its currency.

中国官员正试图通过令人民币贬值来帮助工厂应对美国关税。这会令中国产品在海外具有更强的竞争力，但同时也会让中国内外的投资者有理由将资金带出中国。它还为特朗普提供了一个批评北京的机会——过去，他曾指责中国故意令人民币贬值。

The chances of a financial collapse that could shake the world are slim. The Chinese government has vast sums of money it can tap in the event of a crisis. And there are steep financial barriers to keep money from fleeing the country. While investors have ways around the barriers, they limit the possibility that such a flight could bring one of the world’s most important growth engines to a halt.

目前尚不太可能发生震撼整个世界的金融崩溃。中国政府拥有大量资金在应对危机时动用。中国还有极高的金融壁垒，以防止资金逃离该国。虽然投资者有办法绕过障碍，但它们限制了资金逃离导致这个全球最重要的经济增长引擎停滞的可能性。

Nevertheless, China faces some increasingly serious economic challenges. It is trying to tackle its considerable debt problems without starving its economy of the money that keeps growth chugging along. The president’s tariffs so far have been quite small in the grand scheme of things, but they add to China’s troubles. The next wave of tariffs, set at 25 percent, threatens to cover at least a tenth of China’s exports to the United States, and more could follow.

不管怎样，中国面临着日益严峻的经济挑战。它正在努力解决严重的债务问题，同时努力让经济拥有足够维持增长的资金。迄今为止，特朗普总统的关税在这个宏伟计划中只占很小一部分，但它们增加了中国的麻烦。下一波关税定为25％，威胁至少占中国对美国出口的十分之一，其后可能还会覆盖更多。

China’s stock markets reflect the uncertainty. The Chinese stock market as of this week is down more than 20 percent from its January peak, making it a bear market. The country’s main stock index lost nearly 1 percent on Thursday.

中国股市反映了这种不确定性。截至本周，中国股市从1月的高点下跌了逾20%，成为熊市。该国主要股指周四下跌近1%。

“You don’t know what Trump is going to do next,” said Hong Hao, the chief market strategist in the international unit of the Bank of Communications, one of China’s biggest banks. “Normally at this level, there should be a technical rebound.”

“你不知道特朗普接下来要做什么，”中国最大的银行之一交通银行国际部门首席市场策略师洪灏说。“通常在这个水平上，应该会有技术性的反弹。”

China’s moves with its currency reflect its difficult balancing act. The Chinese central bank has guided the currency steadily lower against the dollar, particularly in the past two weeks, as the likelihood of further American tariffs on Chinese goods has increased. The currency is down more than 5 percent from its peak in February.

中国的货币措施反映了其艰难的平衡举措。由于美国对中国商品进一步征收关税的可能性有所增加，中国央行开始引导人民币对美元稳步下跌，尤其是在过去两周内。自2月到达峰值以来，人民币跌幅超过5%。

One indication of investor sentiment about China is the small amount of China’s currency that is traded outside its borders. China keeps the value of its currency in an iron grip, but investors in places like Hong Kong can trade it more freely.

在中国境外交易的少量中国货币是一个迹象，从中可以看出投资者对中国的感觉。中国严格控制人民币价值，但香港等地的投资者可以更自由地交易。

The value of the renminbi has fallen somewhat faster lately in the less-regulated Hong Kong market than in Shanghai trading. A widening gap between the two markets has long been a sign that investors are worried about the currency.

最近，在监管较少的香港市场，人民币贬值的速度比在上海交易所要快。两个市场之间日益扩大的差距长期以来一直是投资者对人民币感到担心的信号。

China faces still more obstacles. The United States Federal Reserve has begun raising short-term interest rates. That increases the cost of borrowing money for Americans and, given the vast influence of the American economy, for the rest of the world. Such rate increases have caused unpleasant economic surprises worldwide in the past, which could hurt China if growth slows in the markets where it sells its goods.

中国还面临更多障碍。美联储(The United States Federal Reserve)已开始提高短期利率。这增加了美国人借贷的成本，鉴于美国经济的巨大影响力，也增加了世界其他地区的借贷成本。此类利率上涨在过去曾经造成全球范围内的恶性经济意外，如果中国销售市场的增长放缓，可能也会令其受到伤害。

As if investors did not already have enough to worry about in China, a deeply pessimistic internal government analysis has widely circulated on social media this week. The analysis was written by Li Yang, the chairman of the National Institution of Finance and Development, a Beijing-based research group, and by three other economists.

好像生怕投资者对中国的担忧还不够多，本周，一个非常悲观的政府内部分析在社交媒体上广为传播。该分析报告由位于北京的研究机构国家金融与发展实验室理事长李扬和其他三位经济学家撰写。

A person who picked up the phone at the think tank said that the document was genuine and that its release had not been intended.

一位代表该智库接听电话的人士表示，这份报告是真的，而且它的公开是个意外。

The document said that with “the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and the long-term and highly uncertain trade conflicts between China and the United States, we believe that in China there is currently a high probability of financial panic.”

该文件称，“加之美联储加息以及中美贸易冲突呈现高度不确定性，我们认为目前中国就有可能出现金融恐慌。”

Other economists cautioned that the analysis should not necessarily be treated as representing a consensus view within the Chinese government.

其他经济学家告诫说，该分析不应该被视为代表中国政府的共识。

Mr. Li has a reputation as being more bearish during financial crises than other Chinese government economists. He has also used periods of financial stress in China to oppose economic reformers who seek the opening up of the country’s financial system to greater competition and more international flows of money, Mr. Hong said.

与中国政府其他的经济学家相比，李扬以在金融危机期间对市场持更为悲观的态度而著称。洪灏说，他还曾利用中国的金融紧张时期，反对那些谋求开放国家金融体系、加大竞争、加大资金国际流动的经济改革者。

The document leaked this week said that the way to prevent a financial panic was to create a separate stabilization fund to prop up the currency, rather than selling dollars and shrinking the money supply. Such a move could help insulate China’s economy, because reducing the money supply makes it harder for families and businesses to borrow for purchases and investments, from buying an apartment to building a factory.

本周泄露的这份报告称，防止金融恐慌的方式是创建一个独立的稳定基金来支撑人民币，而不是出售美元和减少货币供应。此举可能有助于中国经济免受冲击，因为减少货币供应量会使得家庭和企业难以贷款购买和投资，从买房到建厂莫不如此。

By contrast, many economic reformers say that China would benefit from more openness. The closed Chinese financial system tends to steer money to state-owned enterprises instead of smaller and more entrepreneurial private sector businesses.

相反，许多经济改革者表示中国会从更多开放中受益。封闭的中国金融体系倾向于将资金引向国有企业，而不是规模更小、更具创业精神的私营企业。

Predictions by the report’s authors aren’t gospel, said Qian Qimin, the director of wealth management research at Shenwan Securities, a Shanghai brokerage.

上海的证券交易所申银万国证券市场研究部主管钱启敏表示，报告作者的预测并非金科玉律。

“They consider problems from a theoretical perspective and they look forward and alert government to the worst consequences, which is understandable,” he said.

“他们主要是从理论角度考虑，有一些前瞻性，看得严重一些做出了预警，是可以理解的，”他说。