中国将在明年取代美国 成为全球最大时尚市场

In 2019, China is poised to reach a milestone that signals how the rebalancing of economic power in the world is reshaping industries with it.

2019年，中国将达到一个里程碑，这会证明全球经济力量再平衡如何改变产业。

“The year ahead is one that will go down in history,” write consultancy McKinsey & Company and media outlet The Business of Fashion in their joint report on the state of fashion in 2019. “Greater China will for the first time in centuries overtake the US as the world’s largest fashion market.”

美国麦肯锡咨询公司和英国时装商业评论公司在共同发布的2019年时尚业态报告中写道：“未来一年将被载入史册。大中华区数百年来将首次超过美国，成为全球最大的时尚市场。”

The wealth of China’s nearly 1.4 billion people is rapidly multiplying, creating legions of new consumers with disposable income to spend on things such as sports, entertainment, and of course, clothes and shoes. It’s shaping the way the fashion industry operates. Italian label Ermenegildo Zegna, for example, now looks to China, not the US, as the place where it tests new products before deciding whether to roll them out around the world.

中国近14亿人口的财富正在迅速增长，从而产生了一个有能力在体育、娱乐当然还有服装和鞋类上消费的人数众多的新消费者群体。这正在塑造时尚产业的运作方式。例如，意大利品牌杰尼亚现在把中国而不是美国作为测试新产品的地点，然后再决定是否在全球推广这些产品。

Many luxury labels already depend heavily on Chinese customers, who have for some time been the world’s biggest buyers of luxury goods, counting the purchases they make both inside their home country and while traveling. Thanks to the ascendance of young shoppers, as well as government policies meant to encourage shopping inside the country, much of that spending is moving back inside Greater China’s borders.

很多奢侈品品牌已严重依赖中国消费者，一段时间以来，中国人一直是全世界最大的奢侈品购买群体，这包括他们在国内和出国旅行时的消费。由于年轻消费者占据主流，以及政府出台鼓励境内购物的政策，奢侈品消费支出中的很大一部分正在回流大中华区。

Luxury is only part of the consumption picture in China, of course, particularly since most of the population still can’t afford luxury prices. Sports brands such as Nike and Adidas are investing heavily in their Chinese businesses, as the growing middle class has more leisure time and money to devote to exercise and fitness. And then there’s the giant, booming market for inexpensive clothes. Much of that demand is satisfied not by Western brands, but by local ones such as Heilan Home, Peacebird, and La Chapelle.

当然，奢侈品只是中国消费版图的一部分，其价格对多数中国人来说还是过于高昂。由于不断壮大的中产阶级有更多的闲暇时间和金钱来锻炼健身，耐克和阿迪达斯等运动品牌正在大力投资中国的业务。此外，平价服装的市场非常巨大，正在蓬勃发展。中国平价服装市场的大部分需求不是靠西方品牌满足的，而是海澜之家、太平鸟和拉夏贝尔等本土品牌。

Though China has long had a taste for international labels, more Chinese are now embracing homegrown brands. Achim Berg, who leads McKinsey’s global apparel, fashion, and luxury practice, said during a press briefing about the report, that international brands established in the market look to be cooling off some. “We also see that there are local brands now coming up and becoming relevant,” he said. “I think this desire to only buy international brands in the mid-markets is also waning a bit.”

虽然中国人一直青睐国际品牌，但现在越来越多的中国人开始接受本土品牌。麦肯锡全球服装、时尚和奢侈品业务负责人阿奇姆·伯格在出席一次资讯发布会时谈到了这份报告。他说，已经在市场站稳脚跟的国际大品牌似乎正遭到冷落。他说：“我们还看到，一些本土品牌开始崭露头角，变得举足轻重。我认为，在中端市场，只想买国际品牌的意愿也在减弱。”

Simon Lock, CEO of Ordre.com, commented during the briefing that he’s seen many of the Chinese students who go abroad to study fashion more often returning home to start their lines, rather than staying in New York or London as they typically had in the past. “They are now all rushing back to Shanghai and Beijing and establishing really good beachhead businesses in China before they start their international expansion,” he said.

Order.com网站的首席执行官西蒙·洛克在资讯发布会上表示，现在，很多在国外学习时装的中国学生选择回国发展，而不是像过去一样待在美国纽约或英国伦敦。“如今，他们都回到了上海和北京，在开始国际扩张之前，先在中国建立良好的滩头业务。”

As all this continues, so does China’s growth. Kevin Sneader, McKinsey’s global managing partner, pointed out that, under a moderate scenario of growth, China will add a number of consumers and spending power roughly equivalent to Germany’s current economy by 2025.

这种趋势在上升，中国的增长也是如此。麦肯锡全球管理合伙人凯文·斯尼德尔指出，在稳健的增长态势下，中国的消费者数量将大大增加，到2025年，其购买力将大致相当于德国目前的经济水平。