从深港通看投资者微妙情绪

Judging investors’ mood towards China can be a tricky exercise. If you assess the reaction to the landmark announcement of a direct trading link between exchanges in Shenzhen and Hong Kong that will for the first time allow international investors to bet on Chinese technology groups, it looks bearish.

判断投资者对中国的情绪可能很难。如果你要评估投资者对里程碑式的“深港通”宣布开通的反应，他们似乎是看空的。深港通是深圳与香港两地交易所之间的直接互联互通，将使国际投资者首次可以直接投资中国科技企业。

A week on from the news, Shenzhen and Shanghai markets are lower, while analysts’ views on Hong Kong Exchanges — which would be the biggest direct beneficiary of a planned link — are their gloomiest in more than three years.

自消息公布一周以来，沪深股市持续走低，分析师对香港交易所的悲观情绪达到三年多以来最高水平，而港交所将是深港通计划最大的直接受益者。

Yet follow the money trail and the mood is more nuanced. Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong have gained more than 10 per cent in the past two months, putting them among the top 10 performers in the world.

但追踪资金轨迹就会发现，市场情绪要更加微妙。过去两个月，香港上市的中概股涨幅已超10%，跻身全球前十。

It has also been one of their best showings since the rally and subsequent rout in Chinese mainland last year. Hong Kong indices mostly reflect international money, and some of it seems ready to warm to China again.

这也是去年中国内地股市暴涨又暴跌后，这些中概股的最佳表现之一。香港股指主要反映国际资金，其中部分资金似乎已准备好再次让中国升温。

There is some explanation for the contrasting pictures. The opportunity presented by the trading link with Shenzhen isn’t quite the same as betting on China via the state-backed companies that dominate the stocks available in Hong Kong.

这种对比画面有一些解释。投资在港上市股票中占主导地位的国有企业，从而获得的投资中国的机会，与深港通提供的机会是不太一样的。

And, frankly, there should have been more excitement about the creation of the world’s second-largest pool of equity capital by linking China’s three trading hubs for the first time.

而且坦白讲，对于将中国三大股票交易中心首次联通到一起创造全球第二大股权资本池，投资者应该感到更多兴奋。

Some of the lacklustre response to the Shenzhen news can be put down to scepticism that anything in China billed as a milestone will actually be one — or provide moneymaking opportunities.

对深港通消息的部分低迷反应可以归结为一种怀疑情绪——怀疑在中国任何被标榜为里程碑的事物是否名副其实、或者是否能提供赚钱机会。

There has also been an effort among commentators to avoid a repeat of the enthusiasm that greeted the Shanghai version of the trading link that launched in November 2017.

另外，有些评论者一直在努力避免重复对2017年11月沪港通开通给予的热情。

Then, bankers predicted investors would reach the scheme’s overall trading limits in days as brokerages’ research teams scrambled to hire the best analysts of A-shares — or those traded in Chinese mainland — reportedly doubling their price in the process.

当时，银行家们预计投资者会在几天内达到沪港通整体交易限额，各大券商的研究团队争着聘请最优秀的A股分析师，据报道在此过程中他们开出的价码翻了一倍。

In fact, mainlanders have used only about four-fifths of their overall quota and international investors heading into stocks in Shanghai just two-fifths.

实际上，内地投资者仅使用了他们总额度的约五分之四，投资上海股市的国际投资者仅用了五分之二的额度。

In spite of all this, there are reasons to be excited about Shenzhen. Generating interest in Hong Kong and Shanghai shares can be tough. Both are dominated by Chinese financials, state-owned enterprises and in Hong Kong, too, tycoon-controlled empires.

尽管如此，仍有理由对深圳感到兴奋。让投资者对在香港和上海上市的股票产生兴趣可能很难。主导两地股市的都是中资金融机构、国有企业，在香港还有巨头控制的企业集团。这些都不是投资者梦寐以求的。

None of these are the stuff of investor dreams. More than one analyst admits Tencent, a rival to New York-listed Alibaba, is about the only Hong Kong large-cap company investors consistently ask about.

不止一位分析师承认，腾讯(Tencent)——纽约上市的阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的竞争对手——大概是投资者不断咨询的唯一香港大盘股。

Hong Kong’s recent rally is a sign that a sliver of optimism about China is returning. Since Chinese shares tend to trade outside the mainland at lower valuations, there is an element of arbitrage in the gains.

香港股市最近的反弹表明，对中国的乐观看法正在回归。由于中概股在内地之外的交易估值往往较低，所以存在套利获益的因素。

But even that suggests fewer investors worrying the mainland Chinese economy is about to implode as feared during January’s turmoil.

但这也显示出，投资者不再像今年1月股市动荡期间那样担忧中国内地经济即将崩溃。

Shenzhen stocks far more closely represent “new China” — the online, 4G-enabled companies tapping into consumer growth that investors are interested in.

深圳股市更能够代表“新的中国”——投资者感兴趣的、依靠互联网和4G技术挖掘消费增长的公司。

Three behemoths outside Shenzhen — Alibaba, Tencent and China Mobile — account for more than half of so-called New China’s representation in the MSCI China index, according to Francois Perrin, a portfolio manager at East Capital.

East Capital投资组合经理弗朗索瓦•佩兰(Francois Perrin)表示，深市之外的三家巨头——阿里巴巴、腾讯和中国移动(China Mobile)——占MSCI中国指数(MSCI China Index)中“新的中国”权重的一半以上。

Until mainland shares are included in MSCI indices that dominance will not change. However, opening Shenzhen to direct trading for foreign investors will make it easier for those who don’t track the index so closely to go off-piste and find other ways to bet on China.

在内地股市被纳入MSCI指数之前，这种主导局面不会发生变化。然而，深市交易直接对外国投资者开放，将使得那些并不密切追踪MSCI指数的投资者更容易另辟蹊径，找到押注中国的其他方式。

They will have to rootle about: the average market cap in the southern city is half that of Shanghai, meaning there are far more mid- and small-caps to consider.

他们将不得不仔细寻宝：深市公司的平均市值只有沪市的一半，这意味着有更多的中小盘股可以考虑。

Both markets are dominated by retail investors, whose preference for fast-moving smaller stocks has helped push valuations higher in Shenzhen.

沪深两市都以散户投资者为主，他们对快速涨跌的小盘股的偏爱推高了深市股票的估值。

Taking a wait-and-see approach to a pricey rollercoaster market is understandable. And any view less than outright bearish on China still requires guts in the current environment.

对一个高价且波动剧烈的市场采取观望态度是可以理解的。在当前的环境下，任何不是完全看空中国的观点都仍然需要勇气。

But it isn’t every day a market this large opens up. The link is scheduled to be running by the end of the year. Now’s the time to look closely at what’s on offer.

但是，不是每天都有这么大的市场开放。深港通计划在今年年底之前开通。现在是时候密切关注它能带来什么了。