李开复：15年内，全球半数工作将被人工智能取代

人工智能取代人类工作的预言早已不新鲜，而且正在变成现实。近日，中国人工智能专家李开复警告说，未来15年内世界上一半的工作将因为人工智能而消失。李开复还建议父母们鼓励孩子放手去做自己最想做的事情，让孩子们学会沟通，这样才能在人工智能时代更好地生存下去。

Half of current jobs will be taken over by AI within 15 years, China's leading AI expert has warned.

中国顶级人工智能专家李开复警告说，15年内人工智能将夺走人类现在一半的工作。

Kai-Fu Lee, the author of bestselling book AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order, told Dailymail.com the world of employments was facing a crisis 'akin to that faced by farmers during the industrial revolution.'

畅销书《人工智能超级大国：中国、硅谷和新世界秩序》的作者李开复告诉每日邮报网站说，全世界的职业都面临着一场危机，严重程度“堪比工业革命时期农民所遭受的威胁”。

akin[ə'kɪn]: adj. 类似的

'People aren't really fully aware of the effect AI will have on their jobs,' he said.

他说：“人们还没有充分意识到人工智能会对自己的工作产生什么影响。”

Lee, who is a VC in China and once headed up Google in the region, has over 30 years of experience in AI.

李开复是中国的一位风险投资人，曾经是谷歌在中国的主管，在人工智能方面有超过30年的经验。

VC['vi 'si]: 风险投资（venture capital）

He believe it is imperative to 'warn people there is displacement coming, and to tell them how they can start retraining.'

他认为非常有必要“警告人们将会有替代自己的机器人出现，并告诉人们如何开始重新接受培训。”

人工智能最先取代的十个职业：

1. Sales and Marketing Research 销售和市场调研人员

2. Insurance adjuster 保险公司算理员

3. Security guards 保安

4. Truck drivers 卡车司机

5. Consumer loan underwriter 消费者贷款担保人

6. Financial and sports journalists 金融和体育记者

7. Bookkeepers & Financial Analysts 簿记员和财务分析师

8. Fruit pickers 水果采摘工人

9. Investment professionals 职业投资人

10. Radiologist 放射科医师

Luckily, he said all is not lost for humanity.

李开复指出，幸运的是，人类并不会无事可做。

'AI is powerful and adaptable, but it can't do everything that humans do.'

“人工智能既强大又善于应变，但不能胜任人类的一切工作。”

Lee believe AI cannot create, conceptualize, or do complex strategic planning, or undertake complex work that requires precise hand-eye coordination.

李开复认为，人工智能不能创造、概念化，也不能做复杂的战略规划，或承担需要精细的手眼协调的复杂工作。

He also says it is poor at dealing with unknown and unstructured spaces.

他还表示，人工智能不善于应对未知和缺乏结构的空间。

Crucially, he says AI cannot interact with humans 'exactly like humans', with empathy, human-human connection, and compassion.

他说，最关键的是，人工智能无法“完全像人类那样”与人互动，缺乏同理心、同情心，无法进行人与人之间的心灵沟通。

Psychiatrists, social workers and marriage counselors are unlikely to lose their jobs, along with nurses, AI researchers and scientists, he believes.

李开复认为，精神病医生、社会工作者、婚姻顾问，以及护士、人工智能研究人员和科学家都不容易失业。

人工智能无法取代的十个职业：

1. Psychiatrists 精神病医生

2. Therapists 治疗师

3. Medical caregivers 医护人员

4. AI researchers and engineers 人工智能研究员和工程师

5. Fiction writers 小说作家

6. Teachers 教师

7. Criminal defense attorney 刑事辩护律师

8. Computer Scientists & Engineers 计算机科学家和工程师

9. Scientists 科学家

10. Managers (actually leaders) 经理（领导）

Photo by Owen Beard on Unsplash

However, some jobs will disappear- and quickly.

但是，有些职业却会消失，而且很快就会消失。

Most at risk are telemarketers and telesales people, Lee said, pointing to Google's controversial AI bot system that can fool humans as an example of the future.

李开复说，失业风险最大的是电话推销员，他指出，谷歌备受争议的以假乱真的人工智能机器人系统就是未来的一个例证。

'You've probably already received robo-calls, but future calls will be more natural,' he says.

他说：“你很可能已经接到过机器人的电话，但未来的机器人通话声音将会更加自然。”

'AI can use customer profiles, past purchases, and emotional recognition to find ways to appeal to them - even using a soothing female voice or a persuasive male voice.'

“人工智能可以通过客户资料、历史购买记录和情感识别来寻求吸引客户的方式，它们甚至可以根据情况采用舒缓的女性声音或有说服力的男性声音。”

Lee also said customer support, warehouse workers and telephone operators are at risk.

李开复还提到，客服人员、仓管人员和接线员也是高风险职业。

人工智能时代的十个“高危职业”：

1. Telemarketer / telesales' 电话推销员

2. Customer support 客服人员

3. Warehouse workers 仓管人员

4. Clerks and operational staff 办事员和操作人员

5. Telephone operators 接线员

6. Teller/cashier 出纳员/收银员

7. Fast food workers 快餐店员

8. Dish washers 洗碗工

9. Assembly line inspector 生产线质检员

10. Couriers 快递员

Photo by Andy Kelly on Unsplash

The key to jobs in the future will be empathy, he said.

他说，未来职业的关键将是同理心。

'Human to human interaction is safe, providing comfort and satisfaction is safe.

“涉及人与人的互动，提供舒适和满足感的职业是安全的。”

He also warned education will also have to change dramatically to encourage a new way of thinking, making people 'more individualistic, and more empathetic'.

李开复还警告说，教育还必须经历巨大的变革，以鼓励新的思维方式，让人们变得“更有个性，更具同理心。”

'We also need to focus on what children want to do and show particular passion and talent for something, we need to encourage them to go for it.

“我们还需要关注孩子们想做的、特别感兴趣和有天分的事情，并鼓励他们放手去做。”

'Super talent in children will be found earlier.

“孩子身上的过人才华将会更早被发现。”

'Parents need to know whatever they thought was right, is probably wrong.

“父母需要知道，但凡自己所认为正确的事情，很可能是错误的。”

'You need to let your kids go after what they love, and encourage them.

“你需要让你的孩子去追求自己所热爱的事情，并鼓励孩子。”

'Make sure they spend a lot of time understanding why it is important to help people, and why communication skills are important - don't play on the phone all the time.'

“一定要让他们花时间去理解为什么帮助别人很重要，为什么沟通技能很重要，而不要成天玩手机。”

He also warned many millennials will need to re-balance their life to focus on social skills - but is confident they will be able to adapt.

他还警告许多千禧一代的人要调整自己的生活，更多地注重社交技巧，但他相信人们会适应的。

从今天起，思考怎样做一个不会被机器人取代的人吧！