电动汽车是否将迎来iPhone时刻?

Is the electric car market about to have its iPhone moment

电动汽车市场是否即将迎来iPhone时刻？

Elon Muskclearly thinks so. The chief executive of Tesla Motors has never been shy when it comes to bragging about the wonders of his company’s vehicles. But based on his extravagantly ambitious new production plans, he has decided that a definitive moment is at hand that could turn the global car industry on its head.

埃隆•马斯克(Elon Musk)显然认为答案是肯定的。这位特斯拉汽车(Tesla Motors)的首席执行官在夸耀其公司汽车的美妙时从来不会保守。但基于雄心勃勃的新的生产计划，他认为一个决定性的时刻即将到来，有望颠覆全球汽车产业。

The Apple-like lines outside Tesla sales outlets at the end of March were a clue. That prospective customers would queue for hours to put down a $1,000 deposit on a car they had not even seen — and which most of them would not be able to actually buy for more than two years — is testament to Mr Musk’s ability to whip up excitement in a way that no one has done since the late Steve Jobs.

3月底，特斯拉销售门店外排起的队伍犹如苹果(Apple)门店那么长，那就是一个线索。这些潜在客户愿意排好几个小时的队，为一款他们甚至还未见到的汽车支付1000美元定金（其中多数人要等上两年多才能真正买到手），这证明了马斯克有本事煽动人们的兴奋心情，自史蒂夫•乔布斯(Steve Jobs)去世以来，还没有别的人做得到这一点。

If all those pre-orders turn into sales (a big “if”, since the deposits are refundable) Tesla will bank $14bn in revenues. As the company has already taken to boasting, that will make the debut of its new Model 3 the biggest consumer product launch of all time. Even the iPhone did not get to that kind of scale until its third full year of sales.

如果所有这些预购转化成销售额的话（这里存在一个大大的问号，因为定金是可以返还的），特斯拉将斩获140亿美元的营收。（鉴于该公司喜欢夸耀，）那将令新款Model 3的亮相成为史上最大的消费者产品发布。即便是iPhone也是在问世第三年才达到这种规模的。

Based on this, Mr Musk has decided to go for broke. Tesla’s goal of hitting a production target of 500,000 by 2020 — nearly 10 times its 2017 deliveries — always looked a stretch. Now he plans to hit that output by 2018. And his new 2020 target? A cool 1m. At $35,000, but with the sizzle of the Tesla brand and incorporating many of the features of the far more expensive Model S, Mr Musk has decided the 3 represents a breakthrough moment.

基于这点，马斯克决定放手一搏。特斯拉原来的目标是到2020年实现50万辆的产量目标（那是该公司2017年发货量的近10倍），这个目标本来就看起来勉强。现在他计划到2018年就实现这一产量目标。他为2020年设定的新目标？100万辆。Model 3售价3.5万美元，借助特斯拉品牌的热度，再加上纳入了昂贵得多的Model S的很多功能，马斯克认为，Model 3代表着一个突破时刻。

So what is the risk that other disrupters from the tech industry, who have also been circling the automobile world, will crash this electric car party?

那么，科技行业的其他颠覆者（它们也在对汽车行业虎视眈眈）是否有可能闯入这场电动汽车派对？

Mr Musk had a succinct answer, when asked about that on his company’s quarterly earnings call earlier this week: Apple and Google do not make things. They have been circling the automobile world for a while, but have yet to find a way in — though a deal with Fiat this week to make 100 self-driving minivans at least represents a toe in the door for Alphabet, Google’s parent, as it tries to put its self-driving technology on the road.

在最近特斯拉的季度财报电话会议上被问及这个问题时，马斯克的回答简明扼要：苹果和谷歌(Google)不从事生产。它们觊觎汽车行业已有一段时间了，但尚未找到突破口，不过最近谷歌与菲亚特(Fiat)的协议（生产100辆无人驾驶小型货车）至少代表着谷歌母公司Alphabet已经有一只脚踏了进来，试图将其无人驾驶技术投入实用。

“Making things” turns out to be a key point here. Contract manufacturers exist in the car business, but there is no global supply chain to dial up instantly, as Apple has been able to do so masterfully with its gadgets. There is not enough battery capacity in the world to support a mass electric car market. Only Mr Musk will have that — provided he can meet his own goals for Tesla’s “gigafactory”, being constructed in Nevada to support his car plans.

“生产产品”是这里的关键。代工制造商在汽车行业是存在的，但没有一个现成的全球供应链，就像苹果一直能够赖以制造其产品的供应链那样。全球没有足够的电池产能来支撑庞大的电动汽车市场。只有马斯克会拥有这样的产能——如果他能够实现特斯拉的“超级工厂”这个目标，该厂正在内华达修建，将为他的汽车计划提供支持。

Of course, Tesla itself has also yet to prove that it can handle the challenging task of scaling up production to meet the kind of demand Mr Musk dreams of. It has not even been able to hit much lower levels of production for its existing vehicles.

当然，特斯拉自己还尚未证明，它能够应对扩大产量的挑战，以满足马斯克梦想的那种需求。它甚至尚未达到现有车型的低得多的产量水平。

Mr Musk has blamed production glitches with the X on hubris — a quality his company has never been short of. Compared to the overambitious SUV crossover vehicle, the 3 has been designed with ease of production in mind, he promises.

马斯克将Model X的生产问题归咎于狂妄——他的公司的确从来不缺这种特质。他承诺，与过于雄心勃勃的SUV跨界汽车相比，Model 3在设计时就考虑到了生产方便。

Even with all this, there is the not inconsequential question of demand. The electric car market has seen many false dawns, though it may finally be turning a corner. Last year sales rose above 500,000, an increase of 70 per cent.

即便如此，还有一个绝非无关紧要的需求问题。尽管最终可能会打开局面，但电动汽车市场出现过多次虚假黎明。去年，电动汽车销量突破50万辆，增长70%。

To imagine that Tesla can match this entire global market single-handedly by 2018 takes a giant leap of faith.

想象特斯拉一家公司到2018年就能达到整个全球市场的规模，那是需要极大信心的。

Mr Musk, though, has concluded that his is the only company that has a shot, and the Model 3 is the car with which to do it.

然而，马斯克得出的结论是，他的公司是唯一有机会脱颖而出的电动汽车制造商，而Model 3就是取得这种突破的那款汽车。

If he is right, comparisons with the iPhone will not be out of place. Like electric cars, smartphones went through many false dawns before Apple broke the market open. To produce a winning formula took a convergence of technology trends — the falling costs of processing power, increasing mobile bandwidth — along with innovations like multi-touch screens and the right packaging. The electric car industry has been waiting for a similar moment.

如果他说对了，把这款汽车与iPhone相提并论并非离谱。与电动汽车一样，在苹果打开市场之前，智能手机也经历过很多虚假黎明。要拿出制胜配方，需要各种科技趋势融合：处理能力成本下滑、移动带宽扩大，以及多点触控屏等创新和正确的包装。电动汽车行业等待着类似时刻的到来。

Mr Musk’s electric car dream always looked like one of the most audacious of technology bets. This week, the stakes got much higher.

马斯克的电动汽车梦本来就看上去像是最冒险的科技赌注之一。最近他进一步加大了赌注。