中概股回归表明中国不差钱?

When a group of investors including Sequoia Capital’s China unit and company management took US-listed Qihoo 360 Technology, a Chinese internet company, private in December, they were surprised how easy it was to do so at the desired valuation of $9.3bn.

去年12月，在美国上市的中国互联网公司奇虎360科技有限公司(Qihoo 360 Technology)被一组投资者私有化，这些投资者包括红杉资本中国(Sequoia China)和奇虎360的管理层，他们意外发现，以令他们满意的93亿美元估值完成私有化是多么的容易。

Since then, there have been at least half a dozen more such transactions, the latest being Jumei, an online cosmetics company. Even as the bears warn darkly that China is running out of money, Chinese outbound acquisitions set ever bigger records and capital outflows amount to a possible $800bn a year. There is still plenty of liquidity in China, as such take-private deals suggest. Moreover, these transactions come at a time when the Chinese financial markets are seemingly locked in a tug-of-war between regulators determined to support the prices of listed companies (however artificial) and the naysayers, who believe there is far worse to come.

自那以来至少又发生了6起此类交易，最新的是在线化妆品零售企业聚美优品(Jumei)。即便在悲观人士阴沉地警告中国资金即将枯竭之际，中国对外收购仍不断打破纪录，每年的资本流出可能达到8000亿美元。正如此类私有化交易表明的那样，中国仍有大量的流动性。此外，这些交易发生之际，中国金融市场似乎陷入一场角力，一方面是监管机构决心支撑上市公司股价（无论此举多么人为），另一方面是唱衰者认为还会出现更糟糕的情况。

Given the fact that the main attraction of such take-private transactions is to eventually relist in China at a much higher valuation, such deals suggest many local investors still have faith in their home market despite the volatility. While the valuation gap has come down, it is still attractive. And for hedge fund managers sitting in Hong Kong who have a much more nuanced view of China than their counterparts in the US, playing such proposed buyouts and outbound investment can be exceptionally lucrative. Generally, the risk that a deal falls through has been slight. There have been dozens of such offers since 2010 and only about 10 per cent have not gone through.

鉴于此类私有化交易对投资者的主要吸引力在于最终在中国以高得多的估值重新上市，这些交易表明，尽管中国市场动荡，但许多国内投资者仍对国内市场抱有信心。虽然估值差距缩小，但此类交易仍具吸引力。与美国对冲基金相比，香港对冲基金对中国的观察更为细微，对它们而言，参与此类拟议收购和对外投资可以获得异常丰厚的利润。通常而言，交易失败的风险很低。自2010年以来发生了数十起此类交易，但大约只有10%没有成功。

Senrigan Capital, a Hong Kong hedge fund with backing from Blackstone, for example, was up more than 18 per cent after fees in 2017, a performance most of its peers might well envy, in part by taking views on the privatisation trend.

例如，获得黑石(Blackstone)支持的香港对冲基金Senrigan Capital在2017年不包括手续费在内的回报率超过18%，这一业绩很可能让大多数同行羡慕不已，而它部分得益于该基金观察到私有化趋势。

For example, when HomeInns, China’s second-largest US listed hotel group, announced a proposal from a group of existing large shareholders including Sequoia’s Neil Shen (a founder), Ctrip.com and best of all state-owned Beijing Tourism Group (thus ensuring government support), Senrigan examined its merits closely and decided the proposed take-private deal was attractive for many reasons, according to its year-end letter to investors.

例如，当在美上市的中国第二大酒店集团如家(Homeinns)宣布收到一组现有大股东的私有化要约的时候，Senrigan在年末致投资者的信中表示，Senrigan仔细研究了这一交易的优点，认定该私有化交易从许多方面来说具有吸引力。上述如家大股东包括红杉资本中国创始人之一沈南鹏(Neil Shen)和携程(Ctrip.com)，最妙的是还有国有企业北京首旅集团(Beijing Tourism Group)（从而确保政府支持）。

For one thing, the valuation was reasonable, which meant of course that the probability of an increase in the offer price was greater. Moreover, because Beijing Tourism already had an A share listed company which pledged to buy the hotel group, the uncertainty of a future mainland listing was greatly reduced. Senrigan’s calculations were confirmed when the offer price was increased almost 10 per cent in December.

该交易的一大优点是，估值合理，这显然意味着报价有可能提高。此外，由于北京首旅已经有一家A股上市公司承诺收购这家酒店集团，未来内地上市的不确定性大幅下降。去年12月，该交易报价提高近10%，Senrigan的预测得到了证实。

Such deals have been funded by both the debt and equity money that continues to slosh around China. Chinese banks have been eager to finance take-private transactions, a sign that it is government policy to welcome its strays home, as well as companies’ plans to venture offshore. Now, asset managers are also offering wealth management products that give wealthy individual investors the opportunity to invest in take-private transactions. Indeed, in the case of Qihoo, much of the equity was syndicated out to dozens of investors through firms such as New York-listed Noah Wealth Management.

此类交易的资金来源是不断在中国四处寻觅机会的债务和权益资金。中资银行一直渴望为私有化交易提供融资，这表明政府政策欢迎中概股回归，同时也表明企业在筹划投资海外。现在，资产管理公司也提供让富裕的个人投资者有机会投资于私有化交易的理财产品。实际上，就奇虎而言，大量股权是通过在纽约上市的诺亚财富(Noah Wealth Management)等公司打包出售给数十位投资者的。

While outbound investments may, or may not, be equally illustrative of faith in a future with Chinese characteristics, such offers also represent opportunity for foreign investors. Not long ago, the probability of a Chinese offer for a listed company in the US successfully closing was considered slight, in part because of their relative lack of sophistication, in part because of US regulations and concerns over local financing. Today, they are making progress, which means merger arbitrage funds are beginning to be optimistic about the ability of mainland bidders to successfully close in on their targets.

尽管对外投资既可能说明、也可能无法说明投资者对中国特色未来的信心，但中国的对外收购也代表着外国投资者的机遇。不久前，人们还认为中资公司收购美国上市公司取得成功的可能性很低，部分原因是它们相对稚嫩，还有部分原因在于美国的监管以及本地融资方面的担忧。如今，中资公司取得了进步，这意味着并购套利基金开始看好中国内地收购方成功收购目标企业的能力。

China’s buying binge, whether in bringing companies back home or buying foreign companies, may seem questionable. After all, in the former case, higher valuations in China were partly a reflection of the scarcity of alternative investment opportunities and capital controls which prevented diversification offshore. And in the latter, can the Chinese actually manage their new foreign acquisitions — or even oversee them?

中国的收购盛宴（无论是让中概股回归还是收购外国公司）或许看起来值得怀疑。毕竟，就中概股回归而言，中国的较高估值部分反映出其他投资机遇的缺乏以及资本管制对海外多元化的阻碍。而就收购外国公司而言，中国人真的能够管理他们新收购的外国企业、或者哪怕只是从旁监督它们的管理吗？

Yet for both buyers and investors surely it is better to invest in these sorts of transaction than in government securities around the world which pay almost nothing or less than nothing.

然而，对收购者和投资者来说，投资于这类交易当然比投资于全世界的政府证券要好，后者几乎没有什么回报，甚至还可能亏损。