世行对中国金融改革发出预警

China’s services sector will account for more than half the country’s economic growth by 2017, according to the World Bank, which expects the country’s transition from an industrial powerhouse to a consumption-based economy to be “orderly”.

按照世界银行(WB)的说法，到2017年以前，中国经济半数以上的增长将来自服务业。该行预计，中国将通过“有序的”转型过程，从工业发动机为转型为消费型经济。不过，该行警告说，中国金融体系市场化不够，以及金融资产的巨大波动性，会为这一转型过程带来挑战。

In a report released on Wednesday, the bank said gross domestic product growth would continue to slow during the transition. Last year GDP grew 7.4 per cent, the slowest rate of expansion since 1990. The World Bank forecasts growth of 7.1 per cent this year and said growth was likely to slip to 6.9 per cent by 2017.

该行在周三发布的一份报告中表示，在这一转型过程中，中国的国内生产总值(GDP)增长速度会继续放缓。去年，中国GDP同比增幅只有7.4%，是1990年以来的最慢增长速度。世行预计今年中国经济增速将为7.1%，并表示到2017年以前这一增长速度将滑落至6.9%。

It described this cooling as desirable and orderly, as Beijing looks to find a more sustainable footing after years of credit and shadow banking-fuelled growth.

该行称，由于在经历了多年由信贷和影子银行推动的增长之后，中国政府试图找到可持续性更强的发展立足点，上述降速过程不仅符合预期，也是有序开展的。

“Lower growth is consistent with a gradual shift in China’s growth model, from manufacturing to services, from investment to consumption, and from exports to domestic spending,” the report said.

该报告表示：“较低的增长速度，与中国逐步转变增长模式的过程相符。通过这一转型，中国会从制造业转向服务业，从投资增长型转向消费增长型，从出口增长型转向国内开支增长型。”

Over the past decade the services sector has expanded from a 41 per cent share of the economy to 48.3 per cent last year. The sector is growing thanks to lighter business regulations, while industrial activity is playing a smaller role owing to an excess build-up in capacity and a deceleration in exports.

过去十年里，中国服务业占经济的比重已从41%扩大到去年的48.3%。由于相关商业监管放宽，中国的服务业正在增长之中。与此同时，由于此前积累的过剩产能及出口减速，工业活动占经济的比重正在降低。

While growth decelerates, so will the rise in urban wages. But unemployment should remain low and steady, the bank said.

世行表示，在增长减速的同时，城镇居民的薪酬增长也会减速，不过失业率将处于低位并保持稳定。

The report said more than 13m new urban jobs were created last year, exceeding a target of 10m. However, average disposable income growth in urban households slowed to a rate of 6.9 per cent last year, against rates of more than 8 per cent between 2010 and 2017.

该报告表示，去年中国新增城镇就业岗位逾1300万个，超过了1000万的目标。不过，去年城镇居民平均可支配收入增长速度放缓至6.9%。相比之下，在2010年到2017年期间，这一增长速度在8%以上。

This suggests the economic rebalancing is translating into adjustments in wages rather than in jobs, reflecting a dynamic labour market.

上述数字意味着，中国的经济再平衡过程正在转化为薪资调整问题，而不是创造就业岗位的问题，这反映了劳动力市场的动态性。

“This transformation poses a crucial, long-term challenge to the Chinese urban labour market: how to create high-productivity urban jobs, mostly in services, and how to integrate a growing migrant population,” the report said.

该报告表示：“这种转变为中国城镇就业市场带来了重要的长期性挑战：如何创造以服务业为主的高生产率城镇就业岗位，以及如何吸收日益增长的外来务工人口。”

On the monetary front, the bank points out that efforts to stimulate demand by lowering interest rates have been constrained. The People’s Bank of China has cut interest rates four times since November and taken other action to free up cash reserves at banks, yet real rates “remain historically high”.

在货币政策面，世行指出中国试图借降息刺激需求的努力效果十分有限。自去年11月以来，中国央行(PBoC)曾四次降息，还曾采取其他措施释放银行的存款准备金。然而，中国的实际利率“依然处于历史性高位”。

“The average nominal loan rate for borrowers stood at 6.78 per cent in the first quarter, down just 0.15 percentage points from the previous quarter, according to a PBoC survey.

报告表示：“根据中国央行开展的一项调查，今年第一季度平均名义贷款利率为6.78%，比此前一季度只低了0.15个百分点。”

Nor is the government having much success directing credit to priority areas.

此外，在将信贷资金导向优先发展的领域方面，中国政府也未能取得很大成功。

“Although the government is urging banks to adjust their lending practices and to give more support to households, small and medium-sized enterprises, labour-intensive industries and first-time mortgage applicants, progress is gradual,” the report said.

该报告表示：“尽管中国政府正在敦促银行调整放贷行为，为家庭企业、中小型企业、劳动力密集型企业和首次申请房贷的购房者提供更多支持，这方面的进展却十分缓慢。”

China must take urgent steps to reform a “distorted” financial system in its transition to a more balanced economic model, the World Bank has warned in its latest review of the country’s economy.

此外，世行还在报告中警告说，中国必须采取紧急措施，改革其“扭曲的”金融体系，以完成经济转型。

“Financial reform will only prove effective if it removes the distorted incentives and poor governance structures that have affected how financial resources are mobilised and allocated,” the bank said in a report released on Wednesday. “A fundamentally reconfigured role of the state in the financial system is essential.”

该行表示：“只有在消除扭曲的激励机制和糟糕的治理架构（这种架构会影响到金融资源的流动和分配过程）之后，金融改革才会被证明是有效的。为此，要从根本上改变政府在金融体系中所扮演的角色，这一点十分必要。”

The Chinese government retains effective control over almost 95 per cent of bank assets, compared with 74 per cent state control in India and about 40 per cent in Russia and Brazil, according to World Bank calculations.

根据世行的计算，中国政府有效控制着将近95%的银行资产。相比之下，印度这一比例只有74%，而俄罗斯和巴西这一比例约为40%。

As a result, state-owned enterprises have been able to secure a disproportionate share of available credit at the expense of small and medium-sized enterprises, especially in the private sector.

受其影响，国有企业能够得到的信贷与其规模很不相称，这一不相称的比例是以中小型企业尤其是民营企业为代价获得的。

Karlis Smits, a senior economist at the World Bank and lead author of the report, noted that a failure to move to a more market-based financial system would exacerbate such distortions.

世行资深经济学家、该报告首席作者司克礼(Karlis Smits)指出，如果中国不能转型为更市场化的金融体系，这种扭曲状况或将恶化。

He also warned of the potential dangers from a sharp correction in China’s rollercoaster stock markets.

此外，他还就中国股市过山车大幅调整的潜在危险提出警告。

“Asset price corrections are one of the risks to the growth outlook,” Mr Smits said. “That would undermine consumption if there’s significant volatility or a correction.”

司克礼表示：“资产价格调整是经济增长前景的风险之一。如果出现大幅波动或调整，这可能会伤及消费。”

Ayhan Kose, who oversees the World Bank’s macroeconomic forecasts, said: “Equity ownership is rather small in China relative to most other countries. [But] the volume of margin trading is rather sizeable. In a disorderly correction, the volume of margin trading can create balance sheet challenges.”

负责世行宏观经济预测的艾汉•科泽 (Ayhan Kose)表示：“相对多数其他国家来说，中国的股权持有量很低。（然而，）中国保证金交易的规模却相当大。在无序化调整过程中，保证金交易的规模会为资产负债表带来巨大挑战。”