短线观点：股市下跌迎接奥巴马连任

What a welcome for a US president! Still, while the 2.2 per cent drop in the S and P 500 by early-afternoon yesterday may have damped Democrat euphoria at Barack Obama’s victory a little, he is at least used to it. The day after he was elected in 2010, shares fell more than 5 per cent (the worst post-election market since the second world war).

这对美国总统是一种什么样的欢迎？！可话说回来，尽管标普500指数(S and P 500)截止昨日午后下降2.2%的消息或许给沉浸在奥巴马获胜欣喜之中的民主党泼了一盆冷水，但奥巴马至少已经习以为常了。2010年他当选的第二天，股市跌幅竟然超过5%（二战以来大选次日最糟糕的市场）。

This time, as last time, he should not be disheartened. The market is single minded in its pursuit of the next big thing; it has now switched from a focus on the election to a focus on the fiscal cliff. Jens Nordvig at Nomura points out that Congress is even more polarised after the election, as more moderates were driven out, and puts a 50-50 chance of US politicians failing to stop January’s automatic spending cuts and tax rises.

与上次一样，这一次奥巴马也不应该感到沮丧。市场看到的总是下一件大事，现在股市关注的焦点已经从大选转移到了“财政悬崖。野村证券(Nomura)的延斯·诺德维克(Jens Nordvig)指出，大选之后国会分化更为严重，更多的温和派被排挤出去，他认为，美国政客避免1月份自动削减支出和增税的可能性只有50%。

Yesterday’s drop pushed the S and P 500 below 1,400 for the first time in two months, as it broke below the range it has been in since early August. But bond yields and European shares remain rangebound, suggesting either further drops in both or that US equities overreacted early on.

昨天，标普500指数已经跌至1400以下，这是两个月以来第一次出现这样的低点，跌出8月初以来的波动区间。但债券收益率和欧洲股市还维持在原有区间，似乎表明要么二者会进一步下跌，要么是美国股市反应过度了。

There are good reasons to worry but they were obvious months ago. The structure of Washington’s gridlock is different under Mr Obama than it would have been under Mitt Romney, but it remains gridlock with a risk of US recession next year if the country drives off the cliff.

人们有很好的理由感到担忧，但这些理由在几个月前就很明显。奥巴马执政下的华盛顿僵局的结构，应该不同于如果罗姆尼执政，然而，僵局就是僵局，如果落入“财政悬崖，美国明年就有可能陷入衰退。

Now the markets are focused on it, though, they are likely to swing wildly on headlines as investors try to anticipate the outcome – as well as issues around Greece, Spain and the new Chinese leadership.

现在市场的焦点已经转移到这个问题，随着投资者试图预测“财政悬崖（以及希腊、西班牙问题、以及中国新一届领导班子）等方面的结果时，市场很可能会出现剧烈动荡。

The only certainty is that the artificially low volatility of the past couple of months cannot last. Investors with no view on the political outcomes in the US, Europe and China are going to have a hard time taking a view on the direction of markets between now and the end of the year – and probably longer, if American politicians stay true to form and push out the deadline.

唯一可以确定的是，过去两个月期间人为的低市场波动性不会维持下去。对美国、欧洲、中国政治动向一头雾水的投资者，将难以对从现在到年底的市场走向做出判断。如果美国政客保持“本色，延后截止期限的话，这个局面可能持续更久。