房价下跌：恐慌还是期望？

Property prices across China, often seen as a barometer of the overall health of the economy, are once again on the front pages. But this time, a real sense of panic appears to be the main message.

Across more and more second- and third-tier cities, prices have been as much as halved in some cases amid reports of overcapacity and a collapse in demand.

But is this really the beginning of the bursting of a far bigger property bubble across China, or is it simply a reflection of a slightly hasty and badly thought out construction craze outside of China's first-tier cities?

First-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have enjoyed an unparalleled economic boom in comparison with China's numerous provincial capitals and smaller cities. It must be highlighted here that this is not just a property boom but major development of all aspects of urban infrastructure such as transportation, health and education.Before attempting to examine this question, it is essential to present briefly the nature of China's miraculous economic emergence over the past 20 to 30 years. Of course, massive gains in prosperity have been achieved, but such has been the breakneck speed of this advancement in riches that, at this moment in time, an extremely unbalanced level of development is the result.

It is still the case that far more than 60 percent of all inbound foreign direct investment is attracted to the top-tier cities and nearby areas.

Career opportunities, especially the more lucrative international business opportunities, remain solely a first-tier city attraction. Average salaries outside first-tier cities rarely reach 50 percent of those inside.

As a result, it is hopelessly misguided and even fatuous to "lump" together one apparently cohesive Chinese property market. As most markets emerge and progress, so does the need for accurate segmentation.

It is, therefore, critical to introduce several economic and infrastructure-related segmentation variables in order to dissect China's property market effectively and assess any extent to which a "bubble" is apparent。

Property prices across China's first-tier cities have cooled in recent times, a reflection of the cooling in the Chinese economy overall. There will not be any price crash in first-tier cities, merely a cooling, followed by far more modest gains from now on.

But recent price panics in more and more of China's second- and third-tier cities don't signal the start of any bubble-bursting process generally.

Rather, they're a welcome reminder of the chasm in development levels between first-tier cities and beyond. Far too many new homes have been built outside first-tier cities, and foolish attempts have been made to piggyback on first-tier city prices when the economic opportunities and infrastructure both fall woefully short.

As a result, there may be more quite massive reductions in the prices of new homes in many second- and third-tier cities, especially those that do not benefit from relatively close geographical proximity to China's first-tier cities. There will also almost certainly be a quite substantial cut in investment into and construction of more new homes in many second- and third-tier cities.

But ... there will not be a major nationwide property crash similar to those witnessed recently in the United States and not that long ago in the United Kingdom.

First-tier city property prices will remain robust and in the more select areas of these cities, prices may even rise significantly and relentlessly, not too dissimilar to the seemingly unstoppable rise in London property prices while the rest of the UK market remains fairly flat.

All future analysis of China's property "market" should first pay sufficient attention to the presence of very different segments: currently key variables being city income and infrastructure.

Expect greater fragmentation of China's property market with smaller and smaller market segments defined by smaller and smaller geographical areas.

No need for any nationwide property price panic. But there is a need for studious segmentation, strategic thinking and more modest economic expectations.

在中国，房地产价格通常被视为经济总体健康状况的“晴雨表”。如今，房价再次成为焦点。但这一次，它带来的是真正意义上的恐慌。

有报告指出，由于产能过剩和需求崩溃，越来越多的二、三线城市房价下滑，某些房价已下跌近50%。

但这真的是预示着中国更巨大的房产泡沫开始破裂？或仅仅只是人们对于中国非一线城市建设热潮有些仓促的多虑呢？

与中国众多的省会城市和小城市相比，诸如北京、上海这样的一线城市取得了空前的经济繁荣。必须强调的是，这些一线城市所取得的不仅是房地产方面的繁荣，还伴随着基础设施，如交通、医疗和教育等方面的重大发展。因此，在我们审视这个问题之前，有必要对中国过去二、三十年所创造的经济奇迹做一个简短的回顾。诚然，我们已经取得巨大的发展成就，但是这些飞速发展主要体现在一线城市，结果最终导致了中国目前极其不平衡的发展水平。

事实上，一线城市和附近地区吸引了超过60%的入境外商直接投资。

一线城市同样也造就了大量的就业机会，尤其是收入颇丰的国际商业机会。非一线城市的平均工资几乎只有一线城市平均工资的一半。

因此，将表面上紧密结合的中国房地产市场混为一谈是无可救药的误导，甚至是愚蠢的。随着多数市场的出现和发展，也出现了对准确分割的需要。

因此，需要引入一些经济和基础设施的关键细分变量来对中国房地产市场进行有效剖析，并对“房地产泡沫”的明显程度进行评估。

近年来，中国一线城市房价上涨势头已经回落，这也是中国整体经济增长势头有所冷却的缩影。但这仅仅只是冷却，一线城市的房价不可能发生崩溃，并且紧随其后的更多的是从现在开始的小幅上涨。

但最近越来越多中国二、三线城市房价下跌所引发的恐慌并不代表房地产泡沫开始破灭。

相反，这是一个积极的信号，预示着非一线城市与一线城市之间的差距在缩小。当经济发展机会和基础设施都严重短缺时，二、三线城市建房过量，诸多开发商都怀着借助一线城市房价的愚蠢意图。

结果是在许多二三线城市，尤其是那些远离一线城市没有地理优势的地方，可能迎来更大规模的房价下跌。因此几乎可以肯定，对于二、三线城市的投资以及新住房建设都将会锐减。

但是，全国性的房地产重大崩盘并不会上演。类似的例子可参照最近的美国以及很久以前的英国。

一线城市房价将继续保持坚挺，并且其部分区域房价甚至还会大幅显著地上升，这跟伦敦房价大幅上涨，而英国其余区域房价仍相当平稳的情况极为相似。

关于中国未来房地产“市场”的所有分析中，首先应充分关注市场中截然不同的部分：目前的关键变量是城市收入和基础设施。

通过较小的地理区域划分的较小的市场分割来看待中国房地产市场这个较大的局面。

我们无需对全国性房价下跌感到恐慌。我们需要的是对房地产市场进行专业细致的分割、战略思考，并对此持更温和的经济预期。