柠檬短缺影响甚重 从大数据看柠檬危机

Americans may have had to enjoy Cinco de Mayo margaritas sans lime this year, but the widespread shortage of the citrus fruit may be a bit more fleeting than originally thought.

今年的五月五日节，美国人民喜爱的玛格丽特酒里可能将见不到柠檬片的身影了。但是大范围的柠檬短缺持续的时间可能不会像很多人一开始想的那么久。

As previously reported, the potent combination of severe weather in Mexico, the spread of the citrus-greening disease huanglongbing (HLB), and the extortion of lime farmers by drug cartels has made it pretty difficult to export the round, green fruit to the United States. The ripple was felt across Mexico's neighbor to the north as a vast majority (97%) of limes are imported from Mexico.

正如最近媒体所报道的，在墨西哥的极端天气、柠檬黄龙病泛滥以及果农受贩毒集团暴力洗劫等多重因素作用下，墨西哥的柠檬已然很难出口到美国。这对墨西哥的北方邻居产生了重大影响，因为美国有97%的柠檬都是从墨西哥进口的。

Prices have soared 400% over the last year, resulting in limes selling for upwards of $100 per 40-pound box, compared to the $15 to $20 cases just a year ago. The shortage is partly caused by heavy rain last season in central Mexico while another lime hub, Colima, experienced the spread of HLB. Florida has also reported cases of citrus greening while California is gripped by severe droughts, making it difficult to compensate on lime crops.

去年美国柠檬的价格飙升了400%，一箱40磅重的柠檬的价格已经上涨到了100美元，相比之下前年美国的柠檬价格每箱只有15到20美元。柠檬短缺的原因有一部分是因为上年墨西哥中部地区的暴雨使收成损失惨重，而作为另一个柠檬主要产区的科利马州则遇到了黄龙病的肆虐。（黄龙病是影响全球柑桔类水果产量的主要病害）美国的佛罗里达州也发现了青果病的案例，而加利佛尼亚州又遭遇了严重的干旱，难以弥补进口柠檬的不足。

Now, The Knights Templar, a drug cartel formerly part of the now-dismantled La Familia Michoacána, is reportedly threatening farmers in the lime-producing state of Michoacán. Turmoil and violence have swept the region as business owners, including lime farmers, rally together to fend off the drug cartel. Mexican government officials have deployed military to quell the fighting and are urging the vigilante groups to ceasefire by May 10.

与此同时，在墨西哥的柠檬产区米却肯州境内，有一个叫做“圣殿骑士团”的贩毒集团对果农们形成了很大威胁。“圣殿骑士团”原来是已被捣毁的贩毒集团“米却肯家族”的一支。在骚乱和暴力的逼迫下，当地的企业主包括果农纷纷走上街头对贩毒集团进行抗议示威。墨西哥政府已经部署军队镇压骚乱，并敦促民间武装在5月10日前停火。

But a drug war aside, the lime crisis may not be as dire as we think. According to analysis by the data analytics group of the business software company SAP, the numbers tell a different story -- one that suggests that people are forgetting the seasonality of pricing. By crunching data from U.S. Food and Drug Administration (USDA) Market News, SAP found that prices are historically higher in the spring due to low production in the winter, which means a price drop is on the horizon -- and already beginning -- as production picks up this summer.

虽然毒贩和枪战听起来很吓人，但眼下这场柠檬危机却可能并不像我们想象的那样无解。根据企业软件公司SAP的数据分析集团的分析显示，人们可能忽略了价格的季节性波动。通过对美国食品和药品监督管理局（USDA）发布的市场信息的分析，SAP公司发现，由于冬季产量较低，柠檬的价格历来在春季较高，这也就意味着随着产量在夏季回升，柠檬的价格不久便会下降，而且现在这种势头已经开始了。

But Chicago restaurant and bar owner Mark Domitrovich says he's still paying more than $100 per case at the moment.

不过芝加哥的餐饮酒吧老板马克o多米特罗维奇表示，目前他要买一箱柠檬仍需花100美元以上的价格。

"The customer is a bit oblivious to the price hike so we haven't changed our procedures too much," the owner of Frontier, Lottie's Pub, and The Pony says. "We've made modifications to the size of the limes but we tend to just absorb the cost rather than trying to explain it to the customers."

多米特罗维奇表示：“顾客不太注意柠檬价格的走高，所以我们并没有怎么改变我们的备餐流程。我们对柠檬片的大小做了一些变化，不过我们只想自己把成本化解掉，而不是费力气向顾客去解释。”

Chicago restaurant veteran Ben Schiller says he's seen poorer quality in some of the limes at his restaurant The Berkshire Room, including limes that are smaller in size and lower juice content. But pricing continues to fluctuate, and he sees it more as a temporary blip than a long-term crisis.

在芝加哥餐饮业从业多年的本o席勒表示，他发现他的“伯克郡小屋”（Berkshire Room）餐厅买到的一些柠檬的质量大不如前了，不光尺寸小了，而且果汁含量也变低了。但是柠檬的价格仍在波动。不过他认为这只是一时的困难，而不是一场长期危机。

Schiller is one of many buyers taking the crisis in stride, holding out and only ordering as much as needed, according to a USDA Market News specialist who was granted anonymity because she was not authorized to speak publicly on behalf of her organization.

USDA《市场资讯》的一位匿名专家（因其未经该局官方授权代表该局表态）指出，目前许多像席勒这样的餐饮业主对这场“柠檬危机”反应冷静，只订购必要数量的柠檬。

As much as we find limes irreplaceable -- sorry, lemons -- for items such as guacamole and the margarita, the food and beverage industry is getting creative with substitutes like pineapple and grapefruit until price hysteria subsides. Those actions have led to a significant decrease in demand, despite the headlines.

虽然柠檬是制作鳄梨色拉酱和玛格丽塔酒时不可缺少的原料之一，但食品和饮料行业还是创造性地使用菠萝和葡萄柚等水果当作柠檬的替代品，同时耐心等待这场柠檬危机过去。这种做法使得市场对柠檬的需求出现了显著的下降——尽管许多媒体还在不厌其烦地炒作“柠檬危机”。

In other words, the story has completely changed from two weeks ago, the USDA market specialist tells Fortune. More shipments are crossing the border, and prices continue to drop each day, she says.

这位USDA的专家还表示，换句话说，目前市场的情况和两周以前已经出现了根本的改观。越来越多的柠檬正从边境输入美国，而且价格每天都在下降。

Typically lime prices in the summertime, the heaviest season, tend to be around $6 to $7 per crate. As of Wednesday, market experts say they've seen some of the lowest prices on limes since the price disruption began. Though Cinco de Mayo calls for an uptick in orders, demand is likely to waver after the holiday. But coupled with buyers tired of paying high prices means we may get to say farewell to lime austerity sooner than we thought.

一般来说，柠檬在夏天旺季的价格一般都在每箱6到7美元之间。有市场专家表示，自上周三起，他们发现有些地方的柠檬价格已经出现了“柠檬危机”以来的最低价。虽然五月五日节的到来可能将推高柠檬的订单，但节后需求又将震荡下降。加上买家们已经厌倦了付高价，这可能意味着我们要比预想的提前跟柠檬危机说拜拜了。

But will prices return to last year's $15 to $20 per crate? Experts remain uncertain what normal will be following the hit the lime market has taken. But limes are not the only crop American consumers should worry about.

但是，柠檬价格会回落到去年的每箱15到20美元的价格吗？专家们还不确定在这次危机后，柠檬市场将呈现什么样的态势。但是柠檬并不是美国消费者唯一应该担心的农作物。

Prices for all fruits and vegetables are expected to rise between 3.5 and 4.5 %, according to a recent USDA Market News report. In February, USA Today reported the highest average retail cost for beef on record since 1987, while pork was up 6.8% and poultry shot up 4.7% over the last year.

据USDA《市场资讯》报道，美国所有水果和蔬菜的价格预计将上涨3.5到4.5%。今年2月，《今日美国》（USA Today ）称牛肉的零售价已升至1987年以来的最高点，同时猪肉价格上涨了6.8%，家禽价格也比去年同期上涨了4.7%。

Meanwhile, droughts in Brazil have resulted in higher prices and lower production of Arabica coffee, the popular bean used in gourmet blends. Coffee prices have more than doubled since January as global demand grows, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

与此同时，巴西的持续干旱已经导致阿拉伯咖啡的产量降低、价格升高，这种咖啡豆经常用在各种美食饮料里。另据《华尔街日报》（Wall Street Journal ）报道，随着全球需求上涨，咖啡价格自今年一月起已经翻了一番。

As the agriculture business continues to reel from severe weather, "normal" prices have yet to be determined. Nonetheless, you can expect to see the citrus staple reappear -- at (somewhat) normal prices -- this summer, just in time for an ice-cold Michelada.

由于农业持续遭受极端天气的打击，现在还不能确定“正常”价格会是什么样。但不论如何，今年夏天，柠檬将或多或少回归正常价格，正好来得及让你调一杯冰凉解暑的米切拉达酒。