分析：贝卢斯科尼让意大利蒙羞

Even long-time friends and allies used to the twists and turns of their leader’s policies and chequered private life were left shocked; embarrassed.

就连那些习惯了其领导人政策变化无常、私生活光怪陆离的老朋友和老盟友，这一次也感到无比震惊……太尴尬了。

Silvio Berlusconi’s televised rant against Italy’s judiciary, the constitution, “hegemonistic Germany and, worst of all, his scarcely veiled threat to bring down Mario Monti’s technocrat government left his supporters struggling to calm the waters before financial markets were to open today.

意大利总理西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼(Silvio Berlusconi)在电视上大骂意大利的司法系统和宪法、以及德国的“霸权主义，最糟糕的是，贝卢斯科尼几乎毫不掩饰地威胁要把马里奥·蒙蒂(Mario Monti)的技术官僚政府赶下台，他的支持者不得不为其收拾烂摊子，努力赶在昨日金融市场开盘前平息局势。

“It was an emotional moment, explained Franco Frattini, a former foreign minister and friend of the three-time prime minister. “Look at his body language, typical of a man who is really furious .?.?. But even I was surprised at his outburst against the Monti government.

意大利前外长佛朗科·佛拉蒂尼(Franco Frattini)是三度担任意大利总理的贝卢斯科尼的好友。他解释说：“那是一时冲动。看他说话时那些肢体语言，都是人怒不可遏时的典型动作。不过，他对蒙蒂政府发怒时的样子，连我都被吓到了。

The immediate reason behind Mr Berlusconi’s decision to convene a press conference on Saturday was his conviction for tax fraud by a Milan court a day earlier and its imposition of a four-year jail sentence, which was then reduced to one.

贝卢斯科尼决定在上周六召开资讯发布会的直接原因是，前一天他被米兰一家法庭认定犯有税务欺诈罪，被判处4年监禁，随后刑期减少到了1年。

The “inside explanation for his fury, according to Mr Frattini and others in their centre-right People of Liberty (PDL) party, was not so much the verdict, which can be overturned on appeal and is likely never to be enforced because of the statute of limitations. It was the judges’ view that Mr Berlusconi had a “criminal tendency.

佛拉蒂尼以及中右翼的自由人民党(PDL)内部其他人士表示，贝卢斯科尼发怒的“内因与判决结果关系不大，这项判决可能在上诉中被推翻，而且由于诉讼时效的关系，很可能永远不会执行。真正让贝卢斯科尼恼火的是，法官认为他有“犯罪倾向。

Nevertheless, the damage has been done. For the outside world, it is further proof that Italy is condemned to political instability. After all, only last week, Mr Berlusconi had praised Mr Monti at a private dinner, asking him to run as the centre right’s candidate.

不过，贝卢斯科尼发的一通火已经造成了破坏性影响。对外界而言，此事进一步证明，意大利注定将陷入政治动荡之中。毕竟，就在上周，贝卢斯科尼还在一场私人宴会上称赞蒙蒂，要求他以中右派候选人的身份参加竞眩

Mr Berlusconi’s brinkmanship should also be interpreted in the light of his separate trial on charges – which he denies – of paying for sex with a juvenile prostitute and abusing his office to get her out of police detention. That trial, with titillating accounts of erotic “bunga-bunga parties, is coming to a faster conclusion than Mr Berlusconi’s defence had hoped.

贝卢斯科尼的悬崖游戏也可以归因于针对他的另一项审判，其指控是与一名雏妓进行性交易、滥用职权让警察局释放她。贝卢斯科尼否认这些指控。这场庭审的进展速度比贝卢斯科尼的辩护律师所希望的要快。审判中对贝卢斯科尼的淫乱聚会进行了露骨的描述。

The “end of an era sensation is fuelled by Mr Berlusconi’s last gasp at what L’Unità, a leftwing daily newspaper, called “impotent populism.

贝卢斯科尼借助左翼《团结报》(L’Unità)所称的“疲软的民粹主义的最后一搏，加剧了“一个时代结束的感觉。

Mr Monti, who is reported to have watched the press conference on television to his astonishment, is not commenting. Government officials have been quick to smooth matters over. “We are serene. We’ll move on, said one. “This was the last outburst of a wounded animal.

据悉，蒙蒂在电视上看到这场资讯发布会时大为震惊，但并未置评。政府官员迅速采取行动，缓和事态。一名官员表示：“我们很平静。我们将忘掉这件事。这是一只受伤的动物最后的咆哮。

The prevailing view is that Mr Berlusconi simply does not have sufficient numbers in the party to pull its support for Mr Monti. But his tirade can certainly make its life in parliament difficult with a crucial vote coming up this month on the 2013 budget.

人们普遍认为，贝卢斯科尼在党内不可能争取到足够多的人来撤消对蒙蒂的支持。但他的谩骂肯定会使议会的日子更加难过，下个月议会将就2013年预算案举行一场关键的投票。

Mr Berlusconi’s opposition to tax increases and his criticism of Italy’s subjection to Germany’s “hegemonistic economic policies will set the terms of battle for when the PDL holds December primaries to choose its candidate to run as prime minister for elections expected next March or April.

贝卢斯科尼反对征税，他批评意大利屈服于德国的“霸权主义经济政策，这将为PDL的候选人初选确定基调。今年12月，PDL将挑选竞选下任总理的候选人。选举预计将于明年3月或4月举行。

Mr Frattini sees that as a clear contest pitting Angelino Alfano, former justice minister whom he backs, as the “moderate pro-Europe candidate against someone who will emerge as representative of eurosceptic populist policies.

佛拉蒂尼认为，这是一场明确的角逐，将使他支持的前司法部长安杰利诺·阿尔法诺(Angelino Alfano)以“温和的亲欧洲候选人的身份，与将代表民粹主义政策的欧洲怀疑论者展开竞争。

For all Mr Berlusconi’s aberrational behaviour in recent days, some constants remain. The 76-year-old billionaire did reaffirm that he would not run again as prime minister, even though he would remain in politics to promote reforms of the judiciary, “so no Italian has to go through what happened to me.

尽管贝卢斯科尼近期表现出种种反常行为，但依然存在一些恒定因素。这位76岁的亿万富翁确实重申，他不会再次竞选意大利总理，不过他仍会留在政坛，以推动司法改革，“保证意大利人不再经历我所承受的苦难。

Riven by infighting and weakened by corruption scandals, the PDL will struggle to recover from where it languishes in opinion polls, with about 15 per cent support.

PDL被明争暗斗所分裂，被腐败丑闻所削弱，在民调中的支持率约为15%，它将很难收复失去的支持率。

That leaves Italians on the centre left praying that the Democratic party will emerge in one piece after its own bruising primaries, due shortly, between leftists and moderates.

这让中左派的意大利人祈祷，民主党将在不久后举行的候选人初选之后保持团结，预计左翼人士和温和人士将在初选期间激烈交锋。

The combination of an imploding centre right and a backward-looking centre left that hardly grips the popular imagination could mean an inconclusive election result next year and more rule by appointed technocrats – maybe good for markets, but hardly for democratic accountability.

内讧的中右派和观念落后、难以抓住民众想象力的中左派对垒，可能意味着明年的选举结果难以得出明确结果，受委任的技术官僚将延长统治，这或许对市场是利好消息，但对民主责任制度而言未必如此。