中国新一代购车大军来势汹汹

China's economy may be slowing, but you wouldn't know it from the average car buyer.

中国的经济增长速度可能在放缓，但是从汹涌的购车大军中丝毫察觉不到这一点。

Passenger car sales in China look set to expand 15% this year -- twice the pace of 2017, estimate consultants at LMC Automotive.

咨询公司LMC Automotive估计，今年中国乘用车销量将增长15%，增幅是2017年的两倍。

There are bumps in the road ahead, but they shouldn't harm the spending spree. To combat pollution, several big cities are restricting car purchases by driving up license-plate prices. In the long term, these diktats probably are limited to a few places with pollution concerns, where the market is saturated anyway.

未来汽车市场依然存在一些障碍，但不会影响到这种购车热潮。虽然中国几个大城市为控制污染而采取了提高车牌价格等措施来限制汽车购买，不过长期而言，这些限购措施可能只限于一些污染严重的城市，这些城市的市场已经饱和。

The last sales slump, which ended in 2017, resulted mostly from the end of nationwide car subsidies in 2009 and 2010 that had pulled forward demand. There haven't been major subsidies in place this year so demand should remain fresh.

中国上次出现销量滑坡局面，主要因为政府在2009年和2010年推出了全国范围的补贴政策，透支了需求，因而在政策退出后市场低迷，这种状况已在2017年结束。今年在没有大型补贴活动的情况下市场需求保持旺盛。

Meanwhile, next year could add another driver: replacements.

与此同时，明年汽车市场将增添另一个驱动力：换车需求。

It has been about five years since China's car sales exploded in 2009. Consumers who ventured into the market then are looking to change their old cars, reckons Macquarie's Janet Lewis. Plus, more drivers are using car loans. The share of buyers using loans tripled to 15% in 2013 from 2009, according to J.D. Power.

中国距2009年出现汽车销量爆发式增长已经过去五年时间。麦格理(Macquarie)分析师Janet Lewis认为，当年的购车者将会考虑换车。此外，更多购车者使用汽车贷款。J.D. Power的数据显示，2013年贷款购车比例上升至15%，是2009年的三倍。

This sophisticated second-time buyer with access to financing likely will purchase a luxury or utility vehicle, Ms. Lewis says. That is one reason both these segments look promising. LMC forecasts luxury car sales rising by 23% in 2017.

Lewis表示，这些精明的二次购车者在贷款的帮助下将购买豪华车或运动型多用途车(SUV)。这是两个市场领域前景看好的一个理由。LMC预计，2017年豪华车销量将增长23%。

The question for investors is how to capitalize on all this. Auto stocks rallied 36% this year, so there may be little more to be gained. Leading SUV-maker Great Wall Motor's shares climbed 80%, but now its margins are moderating. On the other hand, BMW's local partner Brilliance China Automotive should enhance its profits from 2017 as it boosts scale.

投资者的问题是如何捕捉其中的投资机会。今年汽车股高涨了36%，再涨空间可能有限。一流SUV企业长城汽车(Great Wall Motor Co.)飙升了80%，但目前公司的利润率势头已经减弱。另一方面，宝马汽车(BMW)的中国合作伙伴华晨中国(Brilliance China Automotive)从2017年起利润有望提高，因为规模扩大。

Car dealers are another way in. Hong Kong-listed China Zhengtong Auto Services markets premium brands, including in fast-growing inland provinces, and trades at seven times forward earnings. That is cheaper than the nine times at which Baoxin Auto Group, another luxury dealer, trades.

投资汽车经销商股是另一种方式。香港上市公司正通汽车(China Zhengtong Auto Services)目前的市盈率只有7倍；该公司销售豪华汽车品牌，覆盖地区包括高增长的内陆市场。正通汽车的市盈率低于宝信汽车(Baoxin Auto Group)的9倍，后者是另一家豪华车经销商。

China's secular automotive story remains intact. And having conquered richer coastal provinces, businesses are moving inland. Residents in lower-tier cities will purchase nearly 60% of China's new cars until 2020, says McKinsey.

中国汽车市场的长期增长趋势不变。继攻克富裕的沿海省份之后，汽车市场的主战场正转向内陆省份。McKinsey称，到2020年，三四线城市的新车购买比例将接近60%。

Even as China's place in the global economic firmament dims, its car buyers should remain stars.

即使中国在全球经济天空中的光芒黯淡，中国购车者仍将是闪亮的明星。