2013年冲击奥斯卡十佳电影

The American Film Institute has named its top films of 2013, offering up one of the most accurate pictures so far of the likely nominees for next year's Oscar for best film.

The AFI list is, in alphabetical order:

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Fruitvale Station

Gravity

Her

Inside Llewyn Davis

Nebraska

Saving Mr Banks

Twelve Years a Slave

The Wolf of Wall Street

Last year eight out of the 10 films chosen by the institute were also named by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences for the best picture category. Oscars experts are predicting that this year's list of Academy award nominees could be shorter, so the AFI rundown is bad news indeed for missing awards-season hopefuls such as Lee Daniels's The Butler, Woody Allen's Blue Jasmine, and the Aids drama Dallas Buyers Club. Other high-profile films which have failed to make the list include the starry stage adaptation August: Osage County, Robert Redford's solo yachtsman tale All Is Lost, and escaped convict drama Labor Day, which stars Kate Winslet and Josh Brolin.

Of those in this year's list, Twelve Years a Slave, American Hustle, Gravity and Her have already picked up prizes from critics bodies, so would be predicted to grab a best-picture nomination. Martin Scorsese's The Wolf of Wall Street, starring Leonardo Di Caprio, is almost certain of a nod following a hugely positive reaction to a recent screening for Oscars voters, while Paul Greengrass's London film festival hit Captain Phillips is also considered a leading contender. Fruitvale Station, Inside Llewyn Davis and Nebraska might be considered outside bets, though all three films have picked up garlands at film festivals such as Cannes and Sundance.

The chosen movies are intended to be those which "best advance the art of the moving image, enhance the rich cultural heritage of America's art form, inspire audiences and artists alike and/or make a mark on American society".

They are joined by a separate television list which features The Americans, Breaking Bad, Game of Thrones, The Good Wife, House of Cards, Mad Men, Masters of Sex, Orange Is the New Black, Scandaland Veep. The selections are determined by a jury of institute members and trustees, scholars, artists and critics.

A less auspicious, but potentially just as accurate, picture of next year's Oscars hopefuls emerged yesterday when the New York Post revealed that Las Vegas bookmakers are heralding the chances of Steve McQueen's slavery drama Twelve Years a Slave. Online betting site Bovada has the harrowing 19th-century tale down as a 2/3 favourite to beat Gravity, American Hustle, Saving Mr Banks and Captain Phillips to the best picture prize.

The 2017 Oscars, meanwhile, will be staged on 2 March, 2017, at the Dolby Theatre in the Hollywood.

美国电影学院已提名了2013年十佳电影，此名单中的电影是目前最有可能获得明年奥斯卡最佳影片提名的电影。

美国电影学院列出的名单如下（按字母顺序排列）：

《美国骗局》（American Hustle）

《菲利普斯船长》（Captain Phillips）

《水果谷》（Fruitvale Station）

《地心引力》（Gravity）

《她》（Her）

《醉乡民谣》（Inside Llewyn Davis）

《内布拉斯加》（Nebraska）

《大梦想家》（Saving Mr Banks）

《为奴十二年》（Twelve Years a Slave）

《华尔街之狼》（The Wolf of Wall Street）

2017年，学院提名的10部电影中有8部也同样被电影艺术与科学学院提名为最佳影片。奥斯卡预测专家称，今年的提名电影可能要少些，所以电影学院名单的缩减对一些本有望获奖的影片来说无疑是个坏消息，如李·丹尼尔斯的《白宫管家》（The Butler）、伍迪·艾伦的《蓝色茉莉》（Blue Jasmine）、和讲述艾滋患者抗争之路的《达拉斯买家俱乐部》（Dallas Buyers Club）。其他榜上无名的知名电影包括：改编自话剧的《八月：奥色治郡》（August: Osage County）、罗伯特·雷德福的航海员独角戏《一切尽失》（All Is Lost）、还有捧红了凯特·温斯莱特和乔什·布洛林的逃犯戏《劳动节》（Labor Day）。

在2013年的名单中，《为奴十二年》《美国骗局》《地心引力》和《她》已经获得批评家的称赞，所以获最佳影片提名可能性很大。马丁·斯科塞斯导演的《华尔街之狼》捧红了莱昂纳多·迪卡普里奥，最近得到奥斯卡投票者的好评，几乎也可以获最佳影片奖提名。在伦敦电影节上，保罗·格林格拉斯导演的《菲利普斯船长》也被认为是个极可能获奖的作品。《水果谷》《醉乡民谣》和《内布拉斯加州》可能不会入围，虽然这三部电影曾在戛纳和圣丹斯等电影节上获奖。

电影学院认为入选的电影“最好地推动了动态影像的艺术，增强了美国艺术形式丰富的文化底蕴，激励了观众和艺术家，以及/或者给美国社会烙下了印记”。

除此之外，还有一个电视剧名单，包括《美国谍梦》（The Americans）、《绝命毒师》（Breaking Bad）、《权力的游戏》（Game of Thrones）、《傲骨贤妻》（The Good Wife）、《纸牌屋》（House of Cards）、《广告狂人》（Mad Men）、《性爱大师》（Masters of Sex）、《女子监狱》（Orange Is the New Black）和《副总统》（Scandaland Veep）。这些剧目是由学院成员和受托人、学者、艺术家、批评家组成的评委会评选出来的。

12月9日周一，《纽约邮报》（New York Post）确凿消息称，拉斯维加斯的出版者们预测史蒂夫·麦奎因（Steve McQueen）导演的讲述黑奴故事的《为奴十二年》有机会冲击2017年奥斯卡奖，但是胜算不如上述电影大。博彩网站Bovada开出3赔2的夺冠赔率，力挺《地心引力》《美国骗局》《大梦想家》和《菲利普斯船长》夺得最佳影片奖。

2017年度奥斯卡颁奖典礼将于2017年3月2日在好莱坞杜比剧院举行。