4G风暴来袭 它能给中国带来什么?

Forget the breathless coverage of China Mobile offering the iPhone for a moment. Yes, it's huge news for China's biggest wireless carrier and Apple (AAPL) -- and we've heard plenty to the point. But the real game changer for China is another mobile milestone that's nearly as imminent: the rollout of the faster wireless network standard 4G.

中国移动（China Mobile）即将发布iPhone的消息铺天盖地，让人喘不过气来。诚然，对于世界最大的运营商中国移动和苹果公司（Apple）而言，这绝对算得上是大资讯，可惜大家早就听腻了。近来对于中国移动通信界真正的里程碑事件是——4G网络牌照即将发布。

People elsewhere in the world take 4G for granted. I should know -- I once did. After 4G came to New York, my smartphone became faster than my PC. I watched Netflix (NFLX) on my iPhone. Google Maps (GOOG) search was instantaneous. Newspapers downloaded in seconds.

其它国家的手机用户对4G网络已经习以为常。我以前就是这其中的一员。纽约覆盖上4G网络之后，我发现智能手机的上网速度竟然比PC机要快了。我可以在iPhone上观看Netflix视频；谷歌地图（Google Maps）的搜索速度堪称实时；而下载一份报纸只需要几秒钟。

Not so in China. Here, 3G still rules. I moved to Beijing this year, and the downgrade from 4G to 3G was brutal. The same apps weren't the same. Google Maps? Acceptable, but not great. Apple Newsstand: painfully slow. Yahoo Fantasy Football (YHOO) ... well, just don't wait to set your rosters.

但在中国，大行其道的仍是3G。我今年去北京时亲身体会了一把从4G降级至3G后的速度。同样的应用程序仿佛变了个样。谷歌地图？反应勉强能接受。苹果报刊杂志应用？速度相当悲剧。至于雅虎（Yahoo）梦幻足球游戏，就这速度还想排兵布阵？

The 4G rollout in China has progressed in fits and stops. China Mobile (CHL) announced in 2017 that it would upgrade its systems to TD-LTE, a 4G standard, only to be rebuffed by government officials who worried the technology was not mature enough for the market. Delays ensued. 4G was wait-listed until now.

4G在中国可谓一波三折。中国移动早在2017年就宣布将升级至TD-LTE 4G网络。但由于监管部门认为当时的4G技术不够成熟，无法推向市场，中国移动只好作罢。这一拖就拖到了现在。

Last week, China took the official step of granting 4G licenses to the three big state-owned carriers, China Mobile, a giant among giants with 60% of China's mobile market, China Unicom (CHU), second-largest with little over 20% share, and No. 3 China Telecom (CHA). The 4G switch is flipped on Dec. 18, when big cities will fire up the new network. (In a nod to the potential 4G offers, the Party has turned supportive. There's little talk from carriers about the cost of licenses from the government, compared to the Western world where carriers spend tens of billions on new spectrum.)

上周，中国工信部正式向三大国有运营商——中国移动（中国移动通信市场上的老大，约占据60%的市场份额）、中国联通（China Unicom，约占20%的市场份额）和中国电信（China Telecom）发放4G牌照。4G网络正式运营时间定在12月18日，届时一些有条件的大城市可开始切换网络。（出于对潜在4G网络的认同，中国政府开始大力支持4G的发展。各大运营商提都没提政府收取4G牌照费用的事，这与西方运营商动辄花费数百亿美元购买频谱资源简直是天渊之别。）

Insiders say by mid-2017, the country should be far along in adopting 4G. I met one of those insiders last night at a press event for Huawei, the Chinese maker of telecom equipment that is now competing in smartphones and tablets. (Hence, the press mixer. The company previously had little need for reporters because of its business-to-business focus.)

业内人士表示，到2017年年中，中国4G网络的普及将取得很大进展。我上周四晚上在华为（Huawei）召开的资讯发布会上就见过一位这样的知情人士。华为是中国最大的通信设备制造商，如今还运营智能手机和平板业务。（这家公司这次召开资讯发布会也是一个拼盘。华为此前没什么必要同媒体打交道，因为它面向的主要是企业客户。）

Qiu Heng is TDD Network Vice President at Huawei, part of the company's 4G team. I asked Heng what's been the most difficult part of China's 4G rollout, seeing as it's coming three years after 4G was adopted in the U.S. and Japan. He thinks about it for a moment. "There has been no difficulty," he says. This sounds improbable, and it is.

华为TDD产品线副总裁邱恒是华为4G团队的一员。鉴于中国采用4G网络比美国和日本晚了三年，我问邱恒在中国部署4G网络的过程中，最大的难点是什么。他想了想，说：“没有遇到什么困难。”这话着实令人难以置信。

But it's true that Huawei has worked out the 4G kinks in its equipment in Japan. The 4G release in China, now that it's been officially sanctioned, should be smooth, despite the massive numbers involved. China Mobile, for instance, needs to upgrade more than 200,000 base stations. (Heng points out the U.S. and Japan combined have 150,000 stations.) Software upgrades and minor hardware modifications to existing stations are enough to support 4G using Huawei's technology. Reports put China Mobile's cost of station upgrades at $3 billion.

不过，华为在日本确实成功推出了4G设备。既然4G网络在中国已经正式获批，那么尽管涉及的基站数目庞大，4G网络的推出仍然应当十分顺利。举例来说，中国移动需要升级20多万个基站。（邱恒指出，美国和日本总共才有15万座基站。）借助华为的技术，只需对现有基站进行软件升级和小的硬件改造，就能支持4G网络。报道称，中国移动的基站升级成本约为30亿美元。

This is a game changer, Heng says. For the first time Chinese consumers will be able to consistently watch video on their phones. Mobile shopping, already popular, should grow faster with faster speeds. Media, entertainment, and other commerce should all experience a new era in China.

邱恒称4G网络的普及将带来颠覆性的影响。中国消费者将能够在手机上持续的观看视频。已经流行的手机购物将加速发展。媒体、娱乐以及中国的其他行业都将进入一个新的时代。

Bigger than the iPhone release, I ask Heng? He nods his head yes.

我问邱恒，4G网络是不是比中国移动开卖苹果iPhone的意义还要重大？他点头表示赞同。