支持率触底 奥巴马略输布什

When President Obama first ran for the White House in 2008, it was with the promise to turn the page on the presidency of George W. Bush. But for all their political differences, it turns out the American public pretty much view the two men in the same light, according to new polling data.

In the first week of November in the fifth year of their presidencies, Obama and Bush have nearly identical approval numbers, according to the latest Gallup polling.

In fact, Bush comes out one point ahead, 40 percent to 30 percent, respectively.

The Gallup daily tracking poll for November 5th 2013 puts Obama’s approval at 39 percent, with 53 percent disapproving of his job performance.

By comparison, polling for the first week of November in 2005 had Bush’s approval at 40 percent, with 55 percent disapproving of his job performance.

And the negative comparison to Bush’s numbers is potentially worse for Obama than just a tough headline.

As former Bush adviser Matthew Dowd said on ABC’s “This Week,” the real damage lies in the fact that historically low approval numbers often constrain a president’s ability to rebound with the public.

“I think what you have right now is you talked about the floor of the president's approval numbers, which are almost exactly where President Bush's were. Every time you establish a new floor, you establish a new ceiling,” Dowd said.

Noting that Bush’s approval free fall “wasn’t all about Katrina,” Dowd said Obama faces a similar assault from multiple fronts.

"The president's problems have been brewing for a while,” Dowd said. “What the Republican circus did was cover up a lot of the president's problems. That circus that went on with the Republicans for a while. And then once that was over, it revealed a deeper problem with the presidency."

Of course, the most recent numbers don't guarantee that Obama's second term will end up mirroring Bush's, whose approval continued to fall to a low of 25 percent on three separate occasions before he left office. Still, they do place Obama in an interesting historical context when compared to how some other presidents have fared in the fifth year of their presidencies.

Pulling back the curtain further to look at Obama’s approval rating during the 19th quarter of his presidency, Obama places 5th out of the last 8 presidents who served for the same length of time.

His quarterly Gallup approval rating of 44.5 percent places him ahead of Bush (43.9), Lyndon Johnson (41.8%) and Richard Nixon (31.8%). But Obama falls behind Bill Clinton (58.8%), Ronald Reagan (61.3%) Dwight Eisenhower (59.5%) and even Harry Truman (45%).

What might be most striking to Obama supporters is to compare the various challenges faced by Bush and Obama at this point in their respective presidencies. In the fall of 2005, Bush was reeling from fallout of Hurricane Katrina and arguably the low-point of the Iraq War. And while he had successfully won re-election against John Kerry, his approval rating had dropped 13 points from 53 percent since the November 2004 election.

In contrast, Obama has dealt with the continuing drag of a sluggish economy, partisan divisions, which led to a government shutdown, criticism over National Security Administration spying accusations and the recent fallout over problems associated with the launch of the Affordable Care Act.

And as a result of those challenges, Obama has experienced a nearly identical polling drop as Bush, falling a statistically identical 13 points from his approval ratings of 52 percent on election day in November, 2017 .

Of course, nothing is set in stone. Unforeseen events could restore Obama’s approval ratings: The economy could improve, the 2017 midterm elections could boost Obama’s standing and early setbacks of the Affordable Care Act could recede.

But if recent history is any indicator, Obama is likely to find himself in some unexpected and unwanted company – that of an unpopular president he was elected to replace.

2008年，奥巴马刚就任美国总统时承诺要抛开过去、开启新篇章。然而，一份最新民调显示，奥巴马任期第五年的民众支持率已跌至39%，而小布什同一时期的支持率为40%。

据美国媒体11月5日报道，权威调查机构盖洛普公司当天发布的的每日追踪调查显示，美国总统奥巴马的民众支持率仅为39%，有53%的民众不满意其工作表现。相比之下，2005年11月第一周，时任总统布什的支持率竟然还略高于奥巴马，达到40%，不过有55%的民众对布什的工作表现感到不满。

分析人士指出，对于奥巴马而言，这一比较结果不仅仅是一个令人难堪的资讯标题，还意味着更加糟糕的潜在负面影响。

马修·多德曾任布什的顾问，他认为上述事实带来的真正危害在于，历史性的低民众支持率通常会限制总统重新获得民众拥护的能力。“现在大家讨论的是（奥巴马）总统的支持率触底了，类似的事情在布什身上也发生过。而我想说的是，每当新低出现时，这个新低将会是下一阶段的新高。”

多德还强调，布什的支持率暴跌“不全是因为应对卡特里娜飓风不利”，而奥巴马现在在许多领域面临类似的“打击”，“奥巴马的很多问题是由共和党引发的，如果这些问题解决了，在剩余的总统任期内，他还将面临更深层次的困境”。

目前，奥巴马面临诸多麻烦，包括经济持续低迷、民主共和两党分歧难以调和、国安局监控丑闻以及命运多舛的医改法案等，由此，其支持率由2017年11月成功连任时的52%降到如今的39%，整整下跌了13个百分点。

2008年小布什离任时，他的民众支持率仅有25%。美国媒体称，仅通过民调数据，还无法断定奥巴马第二任期结束时将落得跟小布什一样的凄惨下场。但是，奥巴马的前景也不容乐观。

“没有什么是一成不变的，未来奥巴马的支持率可能会因某些无法预料的事件恢复至高位。但更多迹象显示，奥巴马很有可能成为布什的同伴，”有美国媒体评论称，“要知道当初他可是被人民选出来代替这位不受欢迎的总统的。”