美国第三季经济增幅上调

There was a sharp upward revision to estimates of US growth in the third quarter but a murky and ambiguous report cast doubt on the underlying strength of the world’s largest economy, write Anjli Raval in New York and Robin Harding in Washington.

美国第三季度经济增长估测大幅上调，但一份令人困惑且含糊的报告使各方对全球最大经济体的底气产生怀疑。

Data from the commerce department showed the economy grew at a 2.7 per cent annual rate in the July to September quarter, compared with the 2 per cent estimated last month.

来自美国商业部的数据显示，今年7月至9月这个季度，美国经济按年率计算增长2.7%，而上月的估测为2%。

But the cause of the revision was faster growth in business inventories – which cannot be sustained for long – more than offsetting lower estimates of consumption and business spending on equipment.

但修正的原因是企业库存增速加快（这不可能长时间持续下去），其影响超出对消费和企业设备支出估测的下调。

That suggests there is less momentum in the economy and it may be more vulnerable to a shock from the “fiscal cliff of tax rises and spending cuts due at the end of the year.

这似乎表明，美国经济的势头减小了，在财政悬崖的冲击面前可能更加脆弱，财政悬崖是指明年初自动生效的增税和支出削减措施。

“The real story here is the business inventory build, said Tim Hopper, chief economist for TIAA-CREF, the insurer and asset manager. Mr Hopper argued the overall picture was positive, with business increasing production,

保险公司、资产管理公司——美国教师退休基金会(TIAA-CREF)首席经济学家蒂姆·豪普(Tim Hopper)表示：“这里的真正故事是企业库存构建。豪普辩称，整体情况是积极的，企业在增加产量，建筑业贡献扩大。但除非库存进一步上升，否则今年第四季度的情况可能疲弱。

and a stronger contribution from construction. But unless inventories rise further the fourth quarter may be weak. “Some unusual boosts to the third quarter will not repeat in the fourth, said Steven Wieting, US economist at Citi Investment Research. “Government outlays rose 3.5 per cent on a 12.9 per cent surge in defence spending, which seems likely to reverse [in the] near term.

“提振第三季度增长的一些不寻常因素不会在第四季度重现，花旗投资研究(Citi Investment Research)美国经济学家史蒂文·维廷(Steven Wieting)表示，“在国防支出飙升12.9%的推动下，政府支出增加3.5%，近期内这种情况似乎可能逆转。