全球失业率创新高 失业人数达2亿

The global jobless queue will stretch to more than 200 million people this year, the International Labour Organization said in its annual report on Tuesday, repeating a warning it has made at the start of each of the last six years.

The UN jobs watchdog estimates unemployment will rise by 5.1 million this year to more than 202 million, and by another 3 million in 2017, following a rise of 4.2 million in 2017.

If those predictions are right, global unemployment will hit a record. But the ILO has revised its jobless figures down each year as the number of those giving up the job hunt altogether swells, meaning they are no longer classed as unemployed.

A Reuters analysis of previous ILO reports shows that estimates of unemployment made in each of the last six years have subsequently been cut. The original 2007 joblessness figure of 189.9 million is now put at 169.0 million - 11 percent lower.

Figures for 2008-2010 have also fallen by 10-15 million from the original estimates.

Most of the drop is due to people giving up looking for work, said Jose Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, head of director of labour market analysis at the Geneva-based ILO.

"These are people who, because of the seriousness of the crisis, because of long-term unemployment, have given up hope, have decided to not search for work any more, and therefore they are not counted as unemployed but more as discouraged," he said.

The ILO's revised figures mean global unemployment has risen by 28 million since 2007, before the start of the financial crisis, said ILO Director-General Guy Ryder.

With a further 39 million "discouraged" people withdrawing from the labour market over the same period, the crisis could be seen to have created a global jobs gap of 67 million, he said.

However, despite the greater number people believed to have given up on looking for work, the ILO's latest report did not revise figures given a year ago for the total number of people in the labour market.

The so-called "labour force participation rate", which measures the proportion of the working-age population who are working or looking for work, is thought to have remained steady at 64.1 percent for the past three years, showing no sign of the labour force shrinking.

The figure had been above 65 percent until 2007 but fell in each of the subsequent three years.

根据国际劳工组织本周二公布的年度报告，今年全球失业队伍将扩充至2亿多人，再次发出警报。该组织已经连续六年在年初发布失业警报。

联合国就业情况监督机构估计，今年失业人数将增加510万，总计超过2.02亿，2017年将再增加300万，2017年这一增幅为420万。

如果这些预测应验，全球失业率将又创新高。不过，国际劳工组织将每年的失业率都做了下调，因为那些放弃找工作的人数量一直在增加，也就是说他们不再被列为失业人口。

路透社对国际劳工组织历年发布的报告所做的分析表明，过去六年每年估计的失业数据后来都有所下调。2007年，最初估计的失业人数为1亿8990万，现在统计的失业人数为1亿6900万，减少11%。

2008至2010年的失业人数也比最初的估算量减少了1000至1500万。

总部位于日内瓦的国际劳工组织的劳动力市场分析部门负责人若泽•曼努埃尔•萨拉萨尔-西里纳齐斯认为，失业率低于预估值的主要原因是放弃找工作的人增加了。

他说：“由于经济危机很严重，加之长期失业，这些人已经对就业不抱希望，决定不再找工作，所以他们不被算在失业人口之列，而是算作放弃就业者。”

国际劳工组织总干事盖伊•莱德称，劳工组织修订的数据显示，全球失业人口自2007年以来已经增加了2800万，2007年金融危机尚未爆发。

他说，在这期间还有3900万“放弃就业”人员退出劳动力市场，可见这场危机导致全球岗位缺口达到了6700万。

然而，尽管人们认为放弃找工作的人数量会进一步增加，但鉴于劳动力市场的整体规模庞大，劳工组织最新公布的报告没有对上一年的失业数据进行修订。

据认为“劳动力参与率”在过去三年一直维持在64.1%的水平没变，表明劳动力队伍没有缩水迹象。“劳动力参与率”是衡量劳动年龄人口中就业或待业人口比例的指标。

这一数字在2007年以前一直保持在65%以上，但在随后三年每年都有下降。