标准普尔：美国跌落“财政悬崖”的概率为15%

S&P: 15 Percent Chance US Goes Off 'Fiscal Cliff'

标准普尔：美国跌落“财政悬崖”的概率为15%

Standard & Poor's on Thursday said it sees an increasing chance that the U.S. economy will go over the “fiscal cliff” next year, though policymakers will probably compromise in time to avoid that outcome.

周四，标准普尔（标普）公布的报告指出，美国经济在明年跌落“财政悬崖”的可能性却越来越大，不过美国的决策者们可能会及时做出让步，来避免这样的结果。

Analysts at the credit ratings agency now see about a 15 percent chance that political brinkmanship will push the U.S. economy — the world's largest — over the fiscal cliff.

该信用评级机构的分析人士日前指出，作为世界最大的经济体，美国因政治边缘政策而跌落“财政悬崖”的可能性约为15%。

“The most likely scenario, in our view, is that policymakers reach sufficient political compromise in time to avoid most, if not all, potential economic effects of the cliff,” S&P analysts wrote.

标普的分析师们这样写道，“我们认为，最可能发生的是，决策者们或可达成充分的政治让步，这样即便不能完全化解，也至少可以避免大部分因财政危机而引发的潜在的不良经济效应。”

The automatic spending cuts coupled with significant tax increases in January could take an estimated $600 billion out of the U.S. economy and push it into recession, according to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office's assessment of the fiscal cliff.

根据无党派国会预算办公室对财政危机的评估，明年一月自动生效的开支削减和税赋大幅增加的措施，将会使美国在经济方面预计损失6000亿美元。同时也意味着美国将会被拖入经济衰退的泥沼之中。