你不知道iPhone5对美国经济的重要性

Forget QE3. Maybe the way to stimulate the economy is to force Apple to release more new iPhone models.

别管什么第三轮量化宽松(QE3)了。或许刺激经济的办法就是强迫苹果公司(Apple)发布更多新款iPhone。

O.K., that's not exactly right. But Michael Feroli, the chief United States economist at JPMorgan Chase, did a back-of-the-envelope calculation and estimated that the upcoming release of what is expected to be the iPhone 5 could add one-quarter to one-half of a percentage point to the annualized growth rate of America's gross domestic product next quarter.

好吧，这也不完全正确。但摩根大通公司(JPMorgan Chase)的首席美国经济学家迈克尔·费罗利(Michael Feroli)做了一个粗略计算，他估计即将上市的iPhone 5会在下一季度为美国国内生产总值(GDP)的年化增长率带来0.25到0.5个百分点的提振。

From the note he sent to clients today:

他今天发送给客户的报告中这样写道：

Our equity analysts believe around 8 million iPhone 5's will be sold in the US in Q4, even while sales of previous generation iPhones are maintained at a solid pace. While we have no idea how much these will retail for, if it is similar to previous launches it would be around $600. Likewise, if the imported cost component is similar to previous leading generation phones it would imply around a $200 per phone addition to imports (which is a subtraction from GDP). The difference between these two figures, $400, would represent the trade margins, which figure into GDP. Thus, calculated using the so-called retail control method, sales of iPhone 5 could boost Q4 GDP by $3.2 billion, or $12.8 billion at an annual rate. This would boost annualized GDP growth in Q4 by 0.33%-point. If hedonically adjusted constant quality prices of phones declined due to newer or better features -- a reasonable conjecture -- then the lift would be even greater, though past iPhone releases don't bear a visible impact on the relevant CPI components. The third of a percentage point lift would limit the downside risk to our Q4 GDP growth projection, which remains 2.0%.

我们的股票分析师认为，即使前几代iPhone的销售量维持在稳定水平，iPhone5在美国的第四季度销量会达到800万部左右。尽管我们不知道iPhone5的零售价格是多少，但如果和前几代的价格相近，iPhone5的售价会在600美元左右。同样地，如果进口部件成本和前几代的领先型号相似，这就意味着为每个手机支付大约200美元的进口费用（这部分要从GDP中扣除）。这两个数字之间的差值400美元就代表着贸易利润，可以被算入GDP。因此，用所谓的零售控制法进行计算，iPhone5的销售可以为第四季度的GDP增长贡献32亿美元，按照年率计算则为128亿美元。这将会使第四季度的年化GDP增长率提高0.33个百分点。由于新型号将拥有更新更好的功能，按质量不变计算的价格将低于目前价格，如果乐观地把这一因素计算在内——这是合理的设想——那么对GDP的提振作用将会更大，尽管前几代iPhone的发布对相关消费价格指数(CPI)的构成没有明显影响。0.33个百分点的提振会限制第四季度GDP增长预期的下行风险。我们仍然预计第四季度GDP增长率为2.0%。

This estimate seems fairly large, and for that reason should be treated skeptically. However, we think the recent evidence is consistent with this projection. The last iPhone launch was at a similar time last year. In October of last year, when the iPhone 4S first became widely available, overall retail sales that month significantly outperformed expectations. Essentially all iPhone sales occur either on-line or in retail stores. Over half of the 0.8% increase in core retail sales last October occurred in wo categories: on-line sales and computer and software sales, which combined had their largest monthly increase on record. The incremental growth of Q4 sales at those stores over Q3, if due to the iPhone, would have added between 0.1% to 0.2%-point to Q4 growth, after subtracting the import drag. Given the iPhone 5 launch is expected to be much larger, we think the estimate mentioned in the first paragraph is reasonable.

这样的估算看起来相当可观，因此应该被报以怀疑的眼光。但是，我们认为最近的实情和本预期保持一致。上一代iPhone的发布差不多是在去年同一时间。去年10月，iPhone 4S开始大规模上市，当月的零售总额大大超过了预期。基本上所有的iPhone不是通过网上商店出手就是在零售店出售。去年10月的美国核心零售额增长了0.8%，其中一半以上发生在两个领域：网上销售、电脑及软件销售。两者相加实现了有史以来最大的月增长。如果这些商店里的第四季度环比销售额增长是iPhone 4S带来的，则给第四季度的增长率带来了0.1到 0.2个百分点的提振（扣除进口费用之后）。考虑到今年iPhone5的发布规模有望大大提升，我们认为本报告第一段中提及的估算是合理的。