美国应叫停生物燃料生产

The worst drought for 50 years is inflicting huge damage on the US maize crop, with serious consequences for the overall international food supply.

美国玉米作物正受到50年来最严重旱情的巨大破坏，使国际粮食总体供应情况受到了重大影响。

The situation reminds us that even the most advanced agricultural systems are subject to the vagaries of the weather, leading to volatility in supplies and prices not just on domestic markets but also internationally. Climate change and extreme weather events will further complicate the picture.

当前形势提醒我们，即使是最发达的农业体系也无法摆脱天气无常的影响，这不仅会导致国内市场供给和价格波动，还会波及国际市场。气候变化和极端天气现象更使情况雪上加霜。

US maize production had been expected to increase to record levels this year. That view will prove optimistic. Much of the reduced crop will be claimed by biofuel production in line with US federal mandates, leaving even less for food and feed markets. The August US Department of Agriculture estimates, announced today, will give a more precise idea for just how much the maize crop is reduced. Few people are expecting good news.

人们原本预料，今年美国玉米产量将打破历史最高纪录。事实证明这种观点过于乐观了。根据联邦法令，歉收的玉米中，相当大一部分将被用于生产生物燃料，因而进入粮食和饲料市场的玉米就更少了。

Maize prices have already gone higher than their 2008 and 2011 peaks, increasing by 23 per cent during July alone. Wheat prices have followed maize prices upwards. Repercussions are already being felt in the US livestock sector.

近期玉米价格已经超过了2008年和2011年的峰值，单是7月份就上涨了23%。而小麦价格则追随玉米价格上涨。美国畜牧业已经感受到了价格上涨的冲击。

Unsurprisingly, the media has started talking about the possibility of a food crisis. Whether that happens depends not only on how long the drought lasts and how much damage it does to crops but on how far its impact spreads to other markets, whether there are further supply shocks and how countries react to the price movements.

媒体已经开始谈论出现粮食危机的可能性，这一点都不令人惊讶。是否会发生粮食危机不仅取决于旱情持续时间有多长、对农作物的伤害有多大，也取决于其影响向其他市场扩散的程度，以及是否会有后续供给冲击、各国如何应对价格波动。

In 2007-08 governments tended to react in a disorganised and erratic manner, which often accentuated global price rises, as was the case with the imposition of export restraints. Often the measures were not even effective in meeting the objective of stabilising domestic prices, as they often led to panic buying and hoarding.

2007-08年，各国政府的反应无序混乱，这往往加剧了国际价格上涨，其效果如同实施出口限制措施一样。但这些措施通常会引发抢购和囤积行为，达不到有效稳定国内价格的目标。

Given all this, governments should be cautious, especially considering that high prices are not necessarily negative. Attractive producer prices will be needed in the coming months to entice producers to embark on a much needed increase of crop cultivation, especially in the southern hemisphere.

考虑到上述种种，政府应该谨慎行事，尤其是高价并不一定产生负面效果。未来几个月，只有生产者价格足够诱人，才能吸引人们扩大种植——这是目前亟需的——尤其是在南半球。

Some governments will be called to take a number of steps to alleviate the impact of the situation on the poorest consumers, for example through the targeted distribution of food at subsidised prices, increased reliance on non-commodities crops such as roots, tubers, and beans, and assisting small producers to get better seeds and other basic inputs. Over the longer term, strategies to increase local production and self-sufficiency should be implemented.

我们将呼吁一些国家的政府采取多项措施，缓解当前局势对最穷消费者的冲击，例如以补贴价格定向分配粮食，增加对根茎、块茎和豆类等非大宗商品类作物的依赖，以及帮助小规模种植者取得更优质的种子和其他基本的投入品。从长远来看，应当采取增加当地产量、提高自给自足水平的策略。

Fortunately rice supplies in 2017 are plentiful and rice prices stable, but they could also be driven higher by increasing prices of other cereals. Rice market stocks were also not problematic in 2007-08 but prices nevertheless increased dramatically. A lack of transparency and unco-ordinated unilateral actions by importing and exporting countries and media coverage all contributed to creating panic.

幸运的是，2017年大米供应充足，价格稳定，但米价也可能因为其他谷类价格的上涨而走高。2007-08年，大米市场并不短缺，但价格却出现大幅上涨。透明度不高、进口国与出口国未经协调的单边行动，以及媒体的报道，都产生了催生恐慌的效果。

With world prices of cereals rising, the competition between the food, feed and fuel sectors for crops such as maize, sugar and oilseeds is likely to intensify. One way to alleviate some of the tension would be to lower or temporarily suspend the mandates on biofuels. At the moment, the renewable energy production in the US is reported to have reached 15.2bn gallons in 2017, for which it used the equivalent of some 121.9m tonnes or about 40 per cent of US maize production. An immediate, temporary suspension of that mandate would give some respite to the market and allow more of the crop to be channelled towards food and feed uses.

随着全球谷物价格攀升，粮食、饲料和燃料行业对玉米、糖和油籽等作物的争夺可能升级。暂时停止关于生物燃料的法令或者降低其执行力度，是缓解部分紧张的一个办法。目前，2017年美国这一可再生能源的产量据报道已达到152亿加仑，消耗的玉米约为1.219亿吨，占到美国玉米总产量的40%。立即暂停执行上述联邦法令，将为市场提供一定的喘息空间，让更多的玉米流向粮食和饲料用途。

The US drought leaves global markets highly vulnerable to any further supply side shocks. While the current situation is precarious and could deteriorate further if unfavourable weather conditions persist, it is not a crisis yet. Countries and the UN are better equipped than in 2007-08 to face high food prices, with the introduction of its Agricultural Market Information System, which and promote co-ordination of policy responses.

在经受了美国旱情的影响之后，全球市场已无力再承受供应方面任何的进一步冲击。尽管当前形势不确定，而且如果恶劣的天气状况持续的话，形势可能还会恶化，但目前尚未出现危机。与2007-08年相比，目前各国与联合国(UN)更有把握应对高粮价，这是因为联合国启动了能够促进各国政策反应协调水平的农产品市场信息系统(Agricultural Market Information System)。

However, risks are high and the wrong responses to the current situation could create it. It is vitally important that any unilateral policy reactions from countries, whether importers or exporters, do not further destabilise the situation.

然而，风险仍然很高，在应对当前局势过程中，如果方法不当也可能酿成危机。至关重要的是，无论是出口国还是进口国，任何单方面的政策反应都应避免加剧局势的不稳定。

The writer is the director-general of the Food and Agricultural Organization of the UN

本文作者为联合国粮农组织(Food and Agricultural Organization of the UN)总干事