问投资者:巴宝莉做错了什么?

When investors are feeling bullish about life, they consider Burberry a luxury goods company. That is one reason it has offered a total return of 125 per cent over the past five years, more than twice as much as rivals such as Tod's or LVMH. When they are feeling bad – as they were on Wednesday – they consider it a retail chain. Shares of the fashion group fell 7 per cent despite what appeared to be another impressive three months (April to June) of sales growth. Considering that Britain's miserable summer looks tailor-made for Burberry's raincoats, that seems odd. In fact, it fits a recent trend.

当投资者对人生感到乐观时，他们会把巴宝莉(Burberry)视为一家奢侈品公司。这是为何过去5年期间其股票的总回报率高达125%、超过竞争对手如Tod's或LVMH两倍多的原因之一。而当他们感觉不好时（正如本周三那样），就会把它当成一家连锁零售商。这家时尚集团的股价下降了7%，尽管4月至6月三个月的总体销售增长再度令人印象深刻。鉴于英国阴雨绵绵的夏天仿佛是为巴宝莉德雨衣量身定做的一般，这显得蹊跷。事实上，它与近期趋势是吻合的。

There is nothing fundamentally wrong at the group. It has 500 stores (a mix of wholly owned, concessions, outlets and franchises) in all the right places: four stores in Brazil, for example. It is planning for 100 in China in the medium term, with three flagship stores in Shanghai. In the April to June period, Burberry reported strong growth in the UK, Germany, France and China. Group underlying sales growth was 11 per cent, bringing total revenue in the three months to £410m; growth on the retail side, which accounts for two-thirds of Burberry's revenue, was even stronger at 14 per cent.

该集团没有任何根本上的问题。它有500家门店分布在所有合适的地方（包括全资拥有、特许经营、批发和专营）：例如在巴西有4间门店。它正计划中期在中国设立100家，包括三家位于上海的旗舰店。在4月至6月期间，巴宝莉报告在英国、德国、法国和中国都实现强劲增长。集团基本销售增长11%，推动三个月总营收达4.1亿英镑；而零售增长（占巴宝莉总营收的三分之二）更为强劲，达14%。

The company's continued focus on growth still looks justifiable, whatever the jitters about the global economy. Annual sales growth at its wholly owned Chinese stores is about 20 per cent, though the picture is more mixed in the US, where Burberry has been moving up market since 2006.

该公司对增长的持续关注，看来仍是合理的，无论人们对全球经济如何感到恐慌。在其全资拥有的中国门店，年销售额增长约为20%，尽管美国的情况更复杂些，自2006年起，巴宝莉在美国向高端市场转移。

Burberry's problem is not growth but valuation. Past success has bred high expectations of management; anything that smacks of less than relentless forward momentum in underlying earnings gets punished. Burberry's growth rate has been slowing for a couple of quarters now. Some of that is priced in: its share price has fallen 25 per cent since mid-April. The tumble on Wednesday looks like more of the same. Its shares now trade at a forward price/earnings multiple of about 17 times. That is in line with the luxury sector, which is where for the moment it belongs.

巴宝莉的问题不是增长，而是估值。过去的成功培养了人们对管理层更高的期望；基本盈利迅猛增长的势头只要有一点松懈，就会受到惩罚。现在巴宝莉的增长速度已连续两个季度放缓。其中一部分已在股价中得到反映：4月中旬以来已下跌25%。周三的暴跌看起来也是同样性质。其股价意味着预期市盈率约为17倍。这与奢侈品行业一致，它暂时仍属于这一板块。