美国酷热天气可能抬高全球粮价

An intense heatwave is threatening havoc with this year's US grain harvest, burning up hopes of blockbuster yields and sending prices soaring.

一场热浪正威胁今年美国的谷物收成。它浇灭了丰收的希望，谷物价格随之暴涨。

Even a modest reduction in crops could send ripples through global food commodities markets, as the US is the world's top exporter of corn, soyabeans and wheat and stocks of the first two are relatively low.

由于美国是世界最大的玉米、大豆、小麦出口国，而玉米和大豆的储量都相对较低，因此即使是收成的小幅降低，也会在全球粮食大宗商品市场引起连锁反应。

Soyabean prices have surged to the highest level since the 2007-08 food crisis and the price of this year's corn crop has risen 30 per cent since mid-June. Worries about the size of the US crop come only months after drought hit the Latin American soyabean belt of Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay.

大豆价格已上涨至2007年和2008年粮食危机以来的最高水平，而今年玉米作物的价格自6月中旬以来已经上涨30%。在干旱袭击拉美地区巴西、阿根廷、乌拉圭和巴拉圭的大豆种植带数月之后，人们就开始担忧美国的收成情况。

Top US farming states such as Illinois and Indiana had suffered temperatures above 38ºC (100ºF) for several days already, with no let-up this week. "The forecast is going to remain pretty much the same over the next week. We're not looking at much of a break in the heat," said Matt Barnes, meteorologist at the National Weather Service's central Illinois office.

伊利诺伊和印第安纳等美国主要的农业州已经连续几天遭遇38摄氏度（华氏100度）以上的高温天气，并且本周也没有减弱的迹象。美国国家气象局伊利诺伊中心办事处的气象专家马特•巴恩斯(Matt Barnes)说："未来一周的天气预报基本维持不变，预计酷热天气不会中断。"

Soyabean futures on Monday rose 1.5 per cent in early trading to $15.42 a bushel, the highest since July 2008. The oilseed price has surged 15 per cent since the beginning of June as the high temperatures blanketed farm fields.

周一早盘交易中，大豆期货上升至每蒲式耳15.42美元，上涨1.5%，处于2008年7月以来的最高位。由于高温袭击美国农田，自6月初以来油籽价格上涨了15%。

Corn came within pennies of $7 a bushel for the first time since September as the heat places stress on stalks during their fragile pollination phase.

玉米价格自去年9月以来首次逼近每蒲式耳7美元，原因是高温给正处于脆弱的授粉期的茎秆造成了影响。

"We aren't seeing widespread failure yet, but it sure is developing rapidly," said Brian Fuchs, climatologist at the National Drought Mitigation Centre.

美国干旱缓解中心(National Drought Mitigation Centre)气候学家布莱恩•福克斯(Brian Fuchs)说："目前还没有出现大面积歉收，但这种趋势正在快速发展。"

he shift in grain market sentiment caught traders and farmers off-guard. Lulled by an an early and successful planting season, money managers such as hedge funds one month ago had the smallest number of bullish bets on corn in two years.

谷物市场情绪的变化让交易商和农民措手不及。由于今年播种季节较早而且相当成功，对冲基金等资金管理机构在一个月前持有的玉米多头为两年来最低水平。