民调显示奥巴马继续保持微弱领先优势

President Barack Obama has managed to retain a narrow lead in his race for re-election despite a spate of bad economic news and surging GOP optimism about Mitt Romney's prospects, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.

《华尔街日报》和美国全国广播公司(NBC News)最新民调显示，尽管近期经济方面不利消息频传，尽管美国共和党人对罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)的选战前景越来越乐观，但美国总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)仍在谋求连任的竞选中保持了微弱的领先优势。

The president outpolls Mr. Romney, his presumed Republican rival, 47% to 44%, a lead within the survey's margin of error and similar to the advantage he enjoyed a month ago. Mr. Obama's lead is wider in swing states, where the campaigns have battled most intensely.

民调显示，奥巴马的支持率为47%，超过将成为其对手的共和党候选人罗姆尼44%的支持率。奥巴马的这个领先优势在民调的误差范围内，与他一个月前享有的优势差不多。奥巴马的领先优势在"摇摆州"较大，那些州也是选战最激烈的地方。

The poll highlights challenges facing both candidates. While Mr. Obama retains a durable base of support, his standing among white, working-class voters, which was low to start with, continues to erode. Interest in the campaign isn't nearly as intense as it was four years ago among young people and Latinos, who were important to Mr. Obama's victory in 2008.

这次民调凸显出了两位候选人各自面临的挑战。虽然奥巴马仍拥有牢固的支持基础，但他在白人工薪阶层选民中的声望持续下降，而且他在这些选民中的声望一开始就不高。年轻人和拉美裔选民对奥巴马竞选的兴趣远不及四年前那么浓厚，而这些人的支持对奥巴马2008年成功当选美国总统十分重要。

At the same time, more people viewed Mr. Romney unfavorably than favorably by a 6-point margin, with nearly one-quarter of those polled viewing him "very negatively," twice the level found in December. Mr. Romney's business background, which he has made a central element of his candidacy, is a draw for many, the poll found. But it is viewed negatively by even more people.

与此同时，不喜欢罗姆尼的人比喜欢他的人多了六个百分点，近四分之一的被调查者对他持非常负面的看法，这一比例是去年12月的两倍。罗姆尼将自己的商业背景作为选战的重要卖点，民调显示，这一点吸引了很多人，但同时有更多人将其视为负面因素。

Overall, the survey presents the presidential race as both tight and stable. "It looks like a dead heat on a merry-go-round," said Peter Hart, the Democratic pollster who conducts the Journal survey with Republican Bill McInturff. "There is the appearance of motion, but the horses' positions haven't changed."

民调显示，这次总统竞选整体而言格局稳定且势均力敌。美国民主党民调专家哈特(Peter Hart)说，两个人难分胜负，这就好像是坐旋转木马一样，外表看是在动，但木马的位置并没有改变。这次民调由哈特与共和党人麦金塔夫(Bill McInturff)共同完成。

Mr. Obama's advantage is more pronounced in 12 battleground states which, taken as a group, favor him 50% to 42%. His larger lead in those states, which include Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Virginia, could reflect the impact of negative ads aired by his campaign that have criticized Mr. Romney's record as a businessman and portrayed him as out of touch with middle-class voters.

奥巴马在12个"摇摆州"的优势更为明显。若把这些州当作一个整体，它们与美国其它州对奥巴马的支持率分别是50%和42%。奥巴马在这些州（包括内华达、科罗拉多、宾夕法尼亚和弗吉尼亚等）的较大领先幅度或许可反映出他打出的负面竞选广告所产生的影响。这些广告批评罗姆尼作为生意人的过往经历，将罗姆尼描绘成一个与中产阶级选民脱节的人。

"There are two campaigns─the one being fought out in the press, and one in swing states," said Mr. McInturff. "We're seeing some indications that the advertising could be having an impact."

麦金塔夫说，现在出现了两个竞选，一个是在媒体上进行的，一个是在"摇摆州"进行的，我们发现有一些迹象显示，竞选广告可能有不小影响。

The poll of 1,000 adults was conducted June 20-24, after a month that seemed to offer much to buoy Mr. Romney. His fundraising was strong, the May jobs report was weak, and Mr. Obama was widely criticized for saying the private sector was "doing fine." Republican confidence grew after an effort by labor unions and their Democratic allies to recall Wisconsin's Republican governor failed.

这次民调在6月20日至24日期间采访了1,000名成年人，而此前一个月似乎传出了很多可提振罗姆尼选情的消息。例如，他在竞选筹款方面的表现十分强劲，以及5月份美国就业报告疲弱，奥巴马因说私营部门"表现还行"而遭到普遍批评。在工会及其民主党盟友罢免威斯康星州共和党籍州长的努力失败后，共和党的信心得到增强。