难以解读的节后中国经济

China's manufacturing sector had a strong January, at least according to an official survey that required extensive statistical adjustments due to last week's New Year holiday. Independent economists who conducted their own data adjustments found signs of surprising weakness.

中国制造业在1月份表现强劲——至少这是官方调查所展现的景象。由于上周的春节黄金周，该项调查需要进行大量的统计调整。同时，自主进行数据调整的一些独立经济学家表示，他们发现了出乎意料的疲软迹象。

Amid the confusion, all could agree on one point: trying to get a clear read on the Chinese economy at the start of the year, when much of the country shuts down for a couple of weeks, is fiendishly difficult.

在一团迷茫中，各方应该会同意一点：要在年初清晰地判读中国经济是极其困难的，因为全国相当大部分产业要停工两周过年。

This has always been the case but is particularly vexing this year. The economy may be at a turning point, requiring much more policy support to keep growth on track. Yet it could be weeks, even months, before the full extent of any slowdown becomes clear.

这个问题一直存在，但今年尤其令人头疼。中国经济也许正处于一个转折点，需要多得多的政策支持才能保持增长。可是，经济放缓的全貌可能需要数周乃至数月时间才能清晰展现。

"It is not an ideal situation,' said Wang Tao, an economist with UBS. "It affects the government as well. They ask for advice from their think-tanks and they are looking at the same set of data and may not be considering so much some of these technical, seasonal issues."

“这种局面不理想，”瑞银(UBS)经济学家汪涛表示。“这也影响到政府。他们向他们的智库征求建议，大家在研究同一组数据，也许不会过多考虑某些技术性、季节性的因素。”

China's official purchasing managers' index, an important gauge of factory activity, rose to 50.5 in January, up from 50.3 a month earlier. In remaining above 50, the PMI pointed to an expansion in industrial output that confounded forecasts for a decline.

衡量工业活动的重要指标——中国的官方采购经理指数(PMI)在1月份升至50.5，高于前一个月的50.3。这个PMI数据仍高于50，说明工业产出仍在扩张，有关下降的预测不准确。

The subindexes that comprise the PMI showed a sharp drop in export orders but a general increase in new orders — an indication that domestic strength was more than cushioning the impact of Europe's debt travails.

构成PMI指数的几个分类指数显示，出口订单大幅下降，但新订单总体上升，说明国内经济的强劲程度足以抵消欧债危机的冲击。

However, Ms Wang said that her team's adjustment of the data produced the opposite result: exports were unexpectedly robust, while domestic demand was the weak link.

但汪涛表示，她的团队在对相关数据进行调整后，得出相反的结果：出口意外强劲，而国内需求才是薄弱环节。

A separate PMI, which is sponsored by HSBC, told a similar story. The headline index was sluggish at 48.8, signalling a mild deterioration in manufacturing conditions, but export orders rose.

汇丰(HSBC)支持的另一项PMI调查展现出类似的情况。整体指数不振，为48.8，显示制造业状况小幅恶化，但出口订单上升。

The quality of Chinese economic data has long come under suspicion, with critics alleging that it is manipulated by the government trying to cast a positive gloss on its achievements. Li Keqiang, who is widely expected to be China's next premier, said that GDP figures were "man-made" and "for reference only".

中国经济数据的质量长期受到怀疑，批评人士称，这些数据受到政府操纵，因为政府试图给自己的政绩抹金。普遍预期将出任中国下届总理的李克强曾表示，中国的国内生产总值(GDP)数据是人造的，仅供参考。

But analysts say the real problem is less manipulation and more the sheer challenge of measuring a continent-sized economy that is growing — and changing — so quickly.

但分析师们表示，真正的问题与其说是操纵，不如说是测算一个幅员辽阔、正在快速增长（和变化）的经济体所涉及的艰巨挑战。

This challenge is particularly acute at the start of the year when businesses close and tens of millions of workers head home for the Chinese New Year. Depending on whether the week-long holiday falls in January or February, it can have a major impact on data: lavish banquets lead to a jump in food inflation that soon subsides and factory closures cause a sharp but temporary drop in industrial output.

这种挑战在年初尤其突出，每年这个时候，大批企业关门停产，数以千万计的农民工回家过年。春节假期是落在1月还是2月，可能对数据产生重大影响：节日宴请导致食品通胀跃升，但不久就会回落，同时工厂停产导致工业产出呈现急剧但短暂的下降。

Because there were so few work days in January, statisticians had to extrapolate to produce figures for the full month, but economists suspect that they may have overestimated industrial activity in the process.

由于1月份工作日这么少，因此统计人员不得不推算得出全月的数据，但经济学家们怀疑，在此过程中他们可能过高估算了工业活动。

"Without sufficient seasonal adjustment, PMI this January would have been downwardly distorted. However, it is also likely that seasonal adjustment was overdone," said Ting Lu, an economist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "Take all monthly January and February data with a grain of salt."

“若没有充足的季节调整，今年1月的PMI数据将会偏低。不过，季节调整也有可能过头，”美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)经济学家陆挺表示。“要用怀疑的眼光看待所有1月和2月的月度数据。”

Yet waiting until March would be a feat of patience for investors looking to allocate funds. Putting policy on pause would also be a risk for the government. A range of partial indicators, from housing starts to freight volumes at ports, all point to a marked slowdown from China's 9.2 per cent growth last year.

可是，对急于配置资金的投资者来说，等待3月份公布的数据是需要极大耐心的。暂停调整政策对政府也是一个风险。从住房开工数据到港口的货运量，一系列局部指标均显示，中国经济增长较去年的9.2%有显著放缓。

Many analysts had expected that the central bank would cut required reserves in January — a favoured tool in China for pumping cash into the financial system and propping up the economy. But it held its fire and instead adopted more cautious tactics, relying on open-market operations to inject liquidity.

许多分析师此前预期，中国央行将在1月降低银行存款准备金率——这是中国爱用的一种工具，目的是向金融体系释放现金，支持经济。但中国央行并未使出这一招，而是采用了更为审慎的战术，依靠公开市场操作来注入流动性。

Some domestic companies, especially property developers, have warned that the economy could suffer if the government does not shift soon to a more stimulative stance.

一些国内企业（尤其是房产开发商）警告称，如果政府不很快转向一种更加保增长的姿态，经济将会出问题。

Premier Wen Jiabao sought to counter those fears this week, saying that policy can change course quickly if necessary.

中国总理温家宝本周寻求回应这些担忧，他表示，如有必要，政策可以很快转向。

"We must sharply observe and accurately judge the momentum of the domestic economy, paying utmost attention to the first signs of problems," he said at a cabinet meeting.

“要敏锐观察和准确判断国内外经济走势，高度重视苗头性、倾向性问题，”温家宝在国务院会议上表示。

译者:和风