欧洲央行下调欧元区增长预期

The European Central Bank slashed its eurozone economic outlook for next year, forecasting further contraction at a time of record unemployment, but decided to keep interest rates on hold as it saw no threat from inflation.

欧洲央行(ECB)大幅下调了明年欧元区的经济增长前景，预计欧元区经济在失业率创历史纪录之际进一步收缩，但由于没有发现通胀威胁，因此决定保持利率不变。

Mario Draghi, ECB president, said a “gradual recovery should start later in 2013. Speaking after a meeting of the interest rate-setting governing council, he said the “prevailing consensus was to keep the main refinancing rate at 0.75 per cent.

欧洲央行行长马里奥·德拉吉(Mario Draghi)表示，“2013年晚些时候应会开始逐步复苏。他在欧洲央行管理委员会的利率制定会议之后发表讲话称，“当前共识是维持主要再融资利率在0.75%不变。

The bank’s quarterly forecasts are expressed in ranges and its latest revision represented a sharp correction from September’s projection. The midpoint of the new ranges shows eurozone GDP contracting 0.3 per cent in 2013, against a previous forecast that predicted growth of 0.5 per cent.

欧洲央行的季度预测是一个区间范围，其最新修正值与9月预测相比有大幅调整。新区间中值表明2013年欧元区GDP收缩0.3%，而此前的预测是增长0.5%。

The gloomy ECB forecasts followed Wednesday’s cut of UK growth prospects. Taken toget-her with a lack of unanimity among the 22 governing council members on the wisdom of holding rates steady, analysts said a cut early next year was likely.

在欧洲央行发表悲观预测之前，周三英国下调了经济增长前景。再加上欧洲央行管理委员会的22位委员并非一致支持保持利率不变，分析师表示，欧洲央行可能于明年初降息。

The euro fell against leading currencies as investors moved to price-in lower than expected interest rates in the eurozone. The single currency hit its weakest level against the pound and the US dollar in more than a week to trade below $1.30.

欧元兑主要货币下跌，投资者开始计入欧元利率将低于预期。欧元兑英镑和兑美元汇率跌至逾一周来最低位，1欧元兑1.30美元以下。

European equities, however, continued to rally with Germany’s Dax index hitting a near five-year high yesterday.

然而，欧洲股市继续走高，德国Dax指数昨日上涨至近5年来的高点。

Mr Draghi said the ECB had not cut interest rates because the outlook for inflation was broadly unchanged, monetary policy was already “very accommodative and markets had stabilised. The bank’s principal mandate is to target inflation of close to, but less than, 2 per cent over the medium term. It cut inflation predictions to 1.6 per cent next year and 1.4 per cent for 2014.

德拉吉表示，欧洲央行之所以没有降息，是因为通胀前景基本没有改变，货币政策已经“非常宽松，同时市场企稳。欧洲央行的主要使命是保持中期通胀率接近但不高于2%。欧洲央行将明年和2014年的通胀预期分别下调至1.6%和1.4%。