美国数百万人失业保险将到期

More than 40% of the nearly five million Americans who receive unemployment insurance are set to lose those benefits if federal programs expire as scheduled at year-end.

如果美国联邦项目按计划在年底到期而不予延期，近500万申领失业保险的美国人中将有40%以上失去保险。

Some economists worry that cutting off those benefits could harm the economy by leaving millions of Americans with less money to spend on everything from food to fuel. Others argue that overly generous benefits are helping to prolong joblessness.

一些经济学家担心，停止发放上述福利会使数百万美国人手中用来买食品、燃油等各类商品的钱减少，进而可能损害经济。其他人则称，过于慷慨的福利会助长失业期的延长。

About 2.1 million Americans receive payments through federally backed emergency unemployment programs, which Congress adopted starting in 2008 as a temporary supplement to state-level programs funded primarily with taxes on employers, which generally offer six months of benefits. That number has tumbled from more than 3.5 million at the start of the year and a peak of more than six million in early 2010, reflecting not just the gradual improvement of the job market but also new limits that have pushed hundreds of thousands of workers off the rolls before they could find jobs.

目前约有210万美国人通过联邦政府支持的紧急失业计划领取失业保险。国会从2008年开始实施这一计划，作为资金主要来源于雇主所缴纳税款的州一级项目的临时补充。州一级的计划通常提供六个月的福利。目前申领失业福利的人数较年初的350万大幅减少，较2010年初逾600万的最高水平更是锐减，反映出就业市场逐渐好转，同时也反映出新的限制使数十万失业者在找到工作前失去了失业保险。

Already this year, hundreds of thousands of people have exhausted their jobless benefits. Now, virtually everyone left in the federal programs would lose their benefits if the programs expire as scheduled at year-end.

今年以来已经有数十万失业者不能再享受失业保险。眼下，如果联邦失业保险项目按计划在年底到期而不予延期，实际上所有仍在享受联邦项目的失业者都将失去失业保险。

Congress has repeatedly extended unemployment benefits amid high joblessness, and it could do so again. But the programs have gotten caught up in the fight over the 'fiscal cliff,' a package of tax increases and spending cuts due to take effect early next year. Some Democrats are pushing to extend benefits again, but the programs must contend not only with Republican opposition but also competing priorities such as business and individual tax breaks.

由于美国失业率较高，国会一再延长失业福利，它可能会再次这样做。不过美国的失业保险计划卷入了围绕“财政悬崖的论战中。“财政悬崖指的是将于明年初生效的一揽子增税及减支措施。一些民主党议员正在力推再次延长失业福利，但失业保险项目不仅必须克服共和党的反对，还必须与企业及个人减税计划等重要问题竞争优先次序。

For more than a year, unemployment benefits have been contracting. At the peak of the jobs crisis, workers in many states were eligible for up to 99 weeks of unemployment benefits. Today, New York offers the longest-lasting benefits, at 83 weeks, and other states -- including those with double-digit unemployment rates such as Nevada and California -- offer 73 weeks at most. In a handful of states, benefits now expire after less than a year.

一年多以来，失业福利一直在缩短。在就业危机最严重的时候，很多州的工人都有资格享受最长99周的失业福利。如今，纽约州提供的失业福利时间是最长的，为83周，而其他包括内华达和加州等失业率为两位数的州最长提供73周的失业福利。在少数几个州，失业福利在实施了不到一年后即将到期。

As a result, benefits are expiring far faster than unemployed workers are finding jobs. As of October, about half of job seekers were receiving unemployment benefits, down from about 70% in early 2010.

结果就造成失业福利的到期远远快于失业者找工作的速度。截至10月份，有约一半的求职者在领取失业福利，较2010年初的约70%有所下滑。

With national unemployment at 7.9%, more than two points higher than when Congress enacted the temporary benefits in 2008, few economists support eliminating the federal programs entirely. But James Sherk, a senior policy analyst for the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank in Washington, said given current unemployment, benefits should last about 60 weeks. Mr. Sherk said overly generous benefits can prolong unemployment by giving people an incentive to keep looking for jobs they are unlikely to find.

在美国全国失业率达7.9%（比2008年国会实施临时失业福利时高出两个百分点以上）的情况下，经济学家们几乎都不支持全盘取消联邦失业福利计划。但华盛顿保守智库传统基金会(Heritage Foundation)高级政策分析师舍克(James Sherk)说，鉴于目前的失业状况，失业福利应该为约60周。舍克说，过于慷慨的福利会促使失业者不断寻找那些他们不太可能找到的工作，进而可能令失业期延长。

'If you've been unemployed for a year, that job you're looking for probably doesn't exist,' Mr. Sherk said.

舍克说，如果你已经失业一年了，那么你寻找的那份工作或许根本不存在。

Economists on the left and right agree that unemployment benefits can lead to higher levels of joblessness by giving job-seekers less incentive to look for work and by making them less likely to accept jobs that don't pay as well as their old ones. Economists have reached different conclusions about the impact of extended benefits in the most recent recession, but most studies have found the programs added less than one percentage point to the unemployment rate at the peak of the jobs crisis.

保守派和激进派经济学家都认为，失业福利会使求职者缺乏找工作的动力，使他们不太可能接受薪资不如过去职位的工作，进而可能导致失业率升高。至于在这次的衰退中延长失业福利会带来怎样的影响，经济学家们得出了不同的结论。但大部分研究发现，在就业危机最严重的时候，失业福利使失业率上升了不到一个百分点。

Now, with benefits being scaled back, the effect is almost certainly smaller, said Jesse Rothstein, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley. Moreover, Mr. Rothstein said, unemployment benefits can encourage people who might otherwise have given up to instead keep looking for work, or provide the opportunity to develop new skills.

加州大学伯克利分校(University of California, Berkeley)经济学家罗思坦(Jesse Rothstein)说，眼下，在失业福利缩短的情况下，失业福利对失业率的影响几乎肯定会更校此外，罗思坦说，失业福利可以鼓励可能放弃求职的人坚持不懈地找工作或提供发展新技能的机会。