苹果的优势在于软件

Whether Apple's share-price plunge is justified comes down to one question: Is the iPhone maker a hardware or a software company? Right now, it is more the latter. And that is why the 22% drop in the shares since their September peak creates an opportunity for investors.

苹果股价的重挫是否有其合理性取决于一个问题：这家生产iPhone的企业到底是一家硬件公司还是软件公司？目前看来它更像后者。也正因为如此，该股价格较今年9月高点下跌22%这一事实才会给投资者创造一个逢低买进的机会。

Hardware's history is ugly, thanks to rapid advances in technology. Sony's once-popular Walkman was made obsolete, its televisions commoditized. Neither scale nor manufacturing expertise protected Dell or Hewlett-Packard in personal computers. The iPhone helped cause the share-price collapses of Nokia and Research In Motion. The collective market capitalization of these five companies is just $75 billion today, according to FactSet. Apple's is seven times larger.

由于科技的快速发展，硬件产品的发展历史充满险阻。索尼公司(Sony)曾经风靡一时的随身听(Walkman)已被淘汰，其电视机也已经廉价商品化。在个人电脑领域，无论是规模化还是制造专长都未能保护住戴尔(Dell)和惠普(Hewlett-Packard)。iPhone在一定程度上导致了诺基亚(Nokia)和黑莓生产商Research In Motion的股价暴跌。FactSet的数据显示，上述五家公司的市值总和当前仅为750亿美元。而苹果的市值约为这五家公司市值总和的七倍。

And that is largely due to the secret sauce inside the iPhone, which isn't really a handset so much as a computer with software that makes calls -- and plays music, offers games, gives directions, takes photos, provides Web access and more. Wrapped in a svelte yet sturdy hardware shell stamped with Apple's powerful brand, the iPhone 5 commands an average price well above $600 when excluding the subsidies some wireless carriers provide to customers. And the iPhone's gross profit margins are huge: about 50% for the fiscal year ending next September, estimates analyst Rob Cihra of Evercore.

这种情况在很大程度上要归功于iPhone内部的“秘密调味料。与其说iPhone是一部手机，还不如说它是一台安装了通话软件的电脑──它同时还兼具播放音乐、玩游戏、导航、拍照、上网等更多功能。苗条而坚固的机身上打有代表苹果强大品牌力量标志的iPhone 5，如果不算部分无线运营商向用户提供的补贴，其平均售价远高于600美元。iPhone的毛利率高的惊人：据Evercore的分析师西拉(Rob Cihra)估计，在截至明年9月底的这一财年，苹果的毛利率约为50%。

Nokia's gross margins approached 40% in 2003, according to FactSet, but are now around 26%. For BlackBerry maker RIM, they are expected to fall below 30% for the year through February, down from a peak of 55% in 2006.

FactSet的数据表明，诺基亚的毛利率在2003年接近40%，但目前处于大约26%的水平。黑莓手机制造商RIM在截至明年2月底的这一财年其毛利率预计将降至不到30%的水平，而2006年其毛利率曾高达55%。

Just as their handsome margins were targeted by rivals, competitors naturally want a share of Apple's profit pool.

正如苹果靓丽的利润率成为竞争对手瞄准赶超的目标一样，竞争者自然也希望能将苹果的利润总额分走一块。

Luckily for Apple investors, the firm's software protects a sizable portion of its profits. Inside the iPhone is a mobile 'walled garden' for which developers tailor their apps.

对苹果的投资者来说幸运的一点是，该公司的软件保护了其相当大的一块利润。iPhone内部实为一个移动“围 花园，软件开发者专门为这个“花园开发应用程序。

It is possible down the road that technology will enable all apps to be delivered over the Web, at which point smartphones may morph into low-margin boxes that merely distribute others' software -- like PCs. But that is a long way off. For instance, Facebook Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg has said his company's biggest mistake was building its mobile apps with Web technology rather than using the code specific to platforms like Apple's. It has since reversed course.

未来可能出现的一股趋势是，技术的发展使得所有应用程序都能在网上购买或下载。到那时智能手机可能演变成利润率较低的“盒子，其作用仅仅是安装写好的应用程序，就像个人电脑一样。但这还有很长的路要走。比如Facebook首席执行长(CEO)扎克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)就说，Facebook犯下的最大错误在于，它使用Web技术打造移动应用程序，而不是用仅适用于苹果等具体平台的代码来编写程序。Facebook已经改变了路线。

The more immediate risk for Apple is that rival walled gardens catch up and undercut its ability to charge a premium for devices. Smartphones running Google's Android system outsold iPhones by more than 3-to-1 in the year through September, according to Strategy Analytics, though part of that is due to the range of low-end phones running Android.

对苹果来说，更直接的风险在于竞争对手的“围 花园正在赶上来，这会削弱苹果对产品收取高价的能力。Strategy Analytics的数据表明，截至今年9月底，安装谷歌(Google)安卓系统(Android)的智能手机的销量是iPhone的三倍多，虽然这在一定程度上是受低端安卓手机销量上升的推动。

It is hard to say how much of a premium Apple gets for the iPhone 5 relative to comparable Android devices. But if it is 15%, say, and the premium disappeared, Apple's gross profit from selling iPhones in fiscal 2014 could be nearly 30% lower than Evercore's Mr. Cihra's current forecast, assuming no offsetting cost reductions. And earnings per share could amount to about $46 instead of $60.

很难说苹果iPhone 5比同档次安卓手机价格高了多少。假设高15%，那么如果失去这样的溢价，在不相应地降低成本的情况下，苹果2014财年销售iPhone所得的毛利润将可能比Evercore的西拉目前预测的水平低近30%。此外，每股收益可能约为46美元而不是60美元。

While lower profits are a risk, lower volume growth for Apple looks like a certainty on the present course. The iPhone is now offered by most of the world's wireless carriers. After T-Mobile USA, announced Wednesday, and China Mobile, perhaps next year, there won't be many high value wireless subscribers left to target.

利润降低是一种风险，而按目前的形势看，销量增长放缓对苹果来说似乎是确定无疑的。目前，世界大部分无线运营商都销售iPhone。T-Mobile USA周三宣布将销售iPhone，中国移动或许明年将开售，之后将不会剩下很多潜在的高价值无线用户。

The next leg of growth for the iPhone may be a more affordable device for lower-value subscribers. Apple decided to offer cheaper versions of its first mobile blockbuster, the iPod. And it has launched an iPad Mini. Such moves make sense when you consider that the ultimate power of Apple's business model is luring more users into its walled garden.

iPhone业务要想实现增长，下一步可能是面向较低价值用户推出一种较低价位手机。苹果决定提供其首款移动热卖产品iPod的低价位版本。苹果还推出了iPad Mini。考虑到苹果业务模式的终极威力所在是吸引更多的用户进入苹果“生态圈，这类举措是合理的。

Already, the company has probably sold plenty of additional iPhones, thanks to its previous decision to offer cheaper iPods that got more users to put their music in iTunes. A cheap iPhone might draw millions of additional wireless subscribers into Apple's mobile environment.

由于苹果此前决定推出更便宜的iPod，使得更多用户可以把音乐放到iTunes中，苹果iPhone销量或许已经比原来高了很多。便宜的iPhone可能多吸引数百万无线用户进入苹果的移动生态圈。

In the end, these users tend to buy a new Apple device every few years to upgrade to the latest hardware and software. So any short-run hit to profitability from users opting for cheaper devices should be offset by new users that buy Apple devices every few years. The risk remains that rival products eat into Apple's price premium and its profit margins. Even Microsoft finally has a respectable mobile operating system. But even if Apple faces tougher competition, its stock isn't very expensive.

进入苹果生态圈的结果是，这些用户通常每隔几年会买一部新的苹果手机，升级到最新的硬件和软件。所以，虽然用户选择较低价手机会给苹果的盈利能力带来短期冲击，但这类冲击应该会被每隔几年购买苹果手机的新用户所抵消。风险仍然是竞争对手的产品会侵蚀苹果的溢价和利润率。就连微软最终都有了一款不错的移动操作系统。但就算苹果面临更激烈的竞争，股票价格却也不算很贵。

A pessimistic earnings forecast of $46 a share for fiscal 2014 still means a nicely profitable business. Importantly, it also implies a share price multiple of just nine times -- after subtracting the huge cash pile on Apple's balance sheet.

即使是对苹果2014财年每股收益46美元的悲观预期也仍意味着不错的利润。重要的是，这也表示市盈率只有九倍（在减去苹果资产负债表中的巨额现金后）。

The handset business used to be hit-driven, with the sexiest device gobbling up the market only to disappear after a more popular handset appeared. The genius of the iPhone was to break this trend. Its proprietary software and revolutionary design has encouraged users to stick with newer versions of the device.

手机行业曾经是随潮流而动，流行一时的热门手机在一款更受欢迎的手机出现后就会消失踪影。iPhone的独到之处在于打破了这种趋势。iPhone自有软件和革命性的设计鼓励用户成为“果粉，不断升级到更新款iPhone。

As long as Apple can keep its software leading edge -- and avoid more mistakes like the maps fiasco that frustrated users -- its recurring business should keep generating big returns for shareholders.

只要苹果能够保持其在软件方面的领先优势，同时避免令用户大失所望的地图等更多的问题，苹果用户每隔几年就更新手机所带来的业务应该会为股东不断创造巨大回报。