世界末日不在眼前

Have you heard the doomsday theory about how a rogue planet is going to crash into Earth on Friday and kill us all?

你有没有听过这样一个末日论说法，即本周五将有一颗流浪行星撞上地球，人类全部毁灭。

Amateur astronomer Bill Hudson says that it simply isn't true, and he can prove it─scientifically.

天文爱好者哈德森(Bill Hudson)说，这完全不对，而且他能用科学的方法对此加以证明。

The prediction is supposedly based on the end of a cycle of the Mayan calendar on Dec. 21, 2012, which some have interpreted to mean that the Mayans believed the world would end on that day. According to the prophecy, doom may come in a variety of ways, but one key claim is that a 12th planet in our solar system, called Nibiru and orbiting the sun every 3,600 years, will ram into the Earth and destroy it.

上述预言据说是基于玛雅历法中的一个周期结束日──2012年12月21日。有人对此的解读是，这意味着玛雅人认为世界将在这一天毁灭。这一预言认为，末日可能会以各种方式来临，但其中一种主要说法是，太阳系中的第12颗行星、3,600年绕日一周的尼布鲁(Nibiru)将撞上地球并将其摧毁。

That theory has gained credence in certain quarters and has spawned a cottage industry of scammers offering survival kits and backyard bunkers. In France, officials have announced a plan to restrict access on Dec. 21 to the Pic de Bugarach, a mountain that is supposed to protect people, some say by bursting open to unveil spaceships that will bring people to safety.

在某些地方，这个理论深入人心，于是出现了众多提供求生工具和在后院挖防空洞服务的投机者。法国政府官员宣布了一项限制人们在12月21日去比加拉什峰(Pic de Bugarach)的计划。有人说，届时这座山会裂开，里面会有宇宙飞船出来，人们可乘坐这些飞船到达安全的地方。

Mr. Hudson, a Californian whose day job is to run a computer system for a manufacturing company, is leading a scientific insurgency against the Nibiru theory with a website, talks at schools and online chats with other experts to engage the believers. The only way to convince some people, he decided, is to counter their fears with logical scientific arguments about why Nibiru is not nearby (it would have been detected by astronomers), is not about to crash into Earth (it would need to be orbiting elliptically, which would violate Kepler's law) and is not, in fact, actually real.

哈德森是美国加州人，正职是为某生产企业运行计算机系统。他目前正在领导一场反对尼布鲁撞地球理论的科学“革命，具体方式是通过去学校作报告、在网上与其他专家聊天以及某网站的宣传。哈德森认为，让一些人相信自己的唯一办法就是用合乎逻辑的科学论证来消除他们的恐惧，即首先尼布鲁不在地球附近（如果在会被天文学家发现），其次它不可能撞上地球（若尼布鲁确实存在，它应该沿着椭圆轨道运行，否则就违反了开普勒定律），最后尼布鲁实际上根本就不存在。

'That really upsets me that the rumors are out there, and they upset people, especially kids,' says Mr. Hudson.

哈德森说，真正让我不安的是这些谣言已经传出去了，人们特别是小孩子知道后会感到不安。

He was spurred to act some five years ago, he says, after listening to several frightened questions from fifth-grade students to whom he was giving a talk on space. An Internet search revealed many questions circulating about the prediction. He began to post scientific answers dispelling the theory on Yahoo Answers, where people can post and respond to questions.

哈德森说，大约五年前自己给五年级学生做一场关于太空的报告时，有学生不安地提了几个问题，此事促使他开始采取行动。在互联网上搜索后发现网上有很多关于末日预言的问题。哈德森开始在“雅虎知识堂(Yahoo Answers)上发布科学答案，驳斥末日理论。人们可在“雅虎知识堂提出并回答问题。

His answers led believers to flag his comments as inappropriate, says Mr. Hudson, and he was eventually banned from posting. Answers that constitute venting or ranting, or that are meant to 'solicit others for personal and financial gain' violate the Yahoo Answers community guidelines, according to the website.

哈德森说，他给出的答案让那些相信末日论的人们将他的言论标记为不当，并且最终他被禁止发帖。“雅虎知识堂网站表示，构成情绪发泄或斥责之语的答案或为谋取个人和经济利益而教唆他人的答案都有违“雅虎知识堂社区指导原则。

In 2009 he began his own website, 2012hoax.org, and engaged the help of experts, including archeologists, anthropologists and an astrophysicist at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Last month, he and NASA astrophysicist David Morrison addressed the doomsday prophecy in an online chat sponsored by the American Association for the Advancement of Science. The site received up to 5,000 views a day this fall, but with the fateful day now approaching, it has drawn more than 10,000 visitors a day.

2009年，他设立了自己的网站2012hoax.org，并获得了包括多位考古学家、人类学家和美国国家航空航天局(NASA)一位天体物理学家的帮助。上个月，他和NASA天体物理学家莫里森(David Morrison)在美国科学促进会(American Association for the Advancement of Science)赞助的一个在线交流活动中驳斥了末日预言。该网站今年秋季每天的访问量最高为5,000人，但随着“末日越来越近，目前每天的访问量超过了1万人。

The website's 'planet X' page contains complex math carried out by a U.K. aeronautical engineer that shows why it is physically impossible for an undetected planet to be lurking close enough to the Earth to destroy it soon. To dispel another aspect of the doomsday theory, astrophysicists collaborating with the site have calculated the effect of a black hole if, as prophesied, it did line up with the Earth and sun. Their answer: virtually none.

该网站中的“X星球页包含一位英国航空工程师提供的复杂数学计算，说明了从物理上讲为什么不可能发生这样的情况：一颗未被监测到的星球会悄然靠近地球并很快将其毁灭。为驳斥末日理论的另外一种说法，与该网站合作的多位天体物理学家展开了计算：如果一个黑洞如预言那样与地球和太阳排成一条直线的话，会带来怎样的影响。他们得出的答案是，实际上没有影响。

Dr. Morrison, the NASA scientist, has become the government's de facto defender against the doomsday hypothesis, because of his role answering questions from the public on the 'Ask an Astrobiologist' feature of the agency's website. Starting four years ago, he began getting so many questions about the prophecy that he felt he couldn't ignore them anymore.

NASA科学家莫里森已经成为政府事实上的末日假说驳斥者，因为他负责在NASA网站上的“问问天体生物学家栏目中回答公众的提问。四年前，他开始收到太多有关末日预言的问题，他感觉自己不能继续对此视而不见了。

In a recent Web chat with the public, a reader asked, 'How do you think the apocalypse will happen? Do you predict a nuclear war? Or an alien invasion, extreme fire, WW3, global warming, flooding, etc.'

在最近一次与公众的在线交流活动中，一位读者问：你认为末日预言会以何种方式成真？你认为会发生核战争吗？还是外星人入侵地球、绝天灭地的火灾、第三次世界大战、全球变暖、洪水还是其他？

Dr. Morrison's response: 'What apocalypse? I don't anticipate anything unusual on December 21. The Earth has been here for more than 4 billion years, and I expect it to continue rolling along just fine for billions of years in the future.'

莫里森的回答是：什么末日预言？我预测12月21日不会发生任何反常的事。地球已经存在了40多亿年，我预计地球还将继续好好地转上几十亿年。

Angela Maylin, 30, who lives in Essex, England, first heard about the prophecy two years ago, after reading a newspaper article about solar storms due the following year. Interested in finding out more, she did a search on the Internet that turned up details about how the end of the world was coming in 2012.

英格兰埃塞克斯30岁的梅林(Angela Maylin)两年前第一次听说末日预言，当时她是看了一篇有关来年将发生太阳风暴的报道。她想了解更多的情况，于是在互联网上进行了搜索，找到了有关世界末日将于2012年来临的详细描述。

Never having believed in any doomsday theories before, Ms. Maylin says she found this one worrisome because the descriptions she read about planet alignments and 'pole shifts' leading to weather changes seemed convincing. There had been, in fact, strange weather that year. Ms. Maylin grew so concerned that it was all she could talk about with her family and friends. Her mother and brother laughed at her, she says, and 'I could sort of sense my friends thinking, 'Angela, you're crazy.' '

之前她从不相信任何末日理论，梅林说她发现2012年12月21日世界末日将来临的说法令她感到不安，因为她看到的有关星球排成一条直线以及地极转移导致天气变化的描述似乎很有说服力。实际上，那一年天气确实有些反常。梅林非常担心，她和家人及朋友谈的都是末日预言的事。她说，她母亲和弟弟笑话她，我似乎可以感觉到我的朋友心里在说“安杰拉，你疯了。

Unable to sleep and experiencing chest pains, she went to a doctor, who suggested that she seek therapy. She later found Mr. Hudson's website, which helped her with its rational, scientific explanations, she says. 'Once [Mr. Hudson] explains it, it puts your mind at ease right away,' she says.

她失眠、胸痛，于是去看了医生。医生建议她进行心理治疗。她说，她后来发现了哈德森的网站，该网站理性科学的解释帮助了她。她说，哈德森解释后，马上就使你心里轻松下来。

Still, true believers aren't easily converted, says Mr. Hudson. 'They will rationalize,' he says. 'It's like playing Whac-A-Mole. As soon as you knock down one claim, five more crop up.'

不过，哈德森说，笃信末日预言的人并不会轻易被说服。他说，他们会给自己的想法找各种合理的解释，就像是玩打地鼠游戏。你刚刚把一个打下去，就又有五个冒上来了。