经济增长不能保证幸福感上升

Philosophers from Aristotle to the Beatles have argued that money does not buy happiness. But it seems to help. Since 2005 Gallup, a pollster, has asked a representative sample of adults from countries across the world to rate their life satisfaction on a scale from zero to ten. The headline result is clear: the richer the country, on average, the higher the level of self-reported happiness. The simple correlation suggests that doubling GDP per person lifts life satisfaction by about 0.7 points.

从亚里士多德到披头士，哲学家们都认为金钱买不到幸福，但似乎有所（对幸福感提升）帮助。自2005年以来，民意调查机构盖洛普对来自世界各国的成年人代表进行了民意测试，要求他们对自己的生活满意度从0到10进行打分。结果表明：平均而言，一个国家越富有，幸福感就越高。这个简单的相关性调查表明，人均国内生产总值翻一番，生活满意度将提高了0.7个百分点。

Yet the prediction that as a country gets richer its mood will improve has a dubious record. In 1974 Richard Easterlin, an economist, discovered that average life satisfaction in America had stagnated between 1946 and 1970 even as GDP per person had grown by 65% over the same period. He went on to find a similar disconnect in other places, too. Although income is correlated with happiness when looking across countries—and although economic downturns are reliable sources of temporary misery—long-term GDP growth does not seem to be enough to turn the average frown upside-down.

然而，有预言说随着国家变得越来越富有，其情绪将会改善，这一预言并不可靠。1974年，经济学家理查德 · 伊斯特林发现，1946年至1970年间，美国人均国内生产总值增长了65% ，而其生活满意度却停滞不前。他在其他地方也发现了类似的脱节现象。纵观各个国家，收入与幸福之间存在关联——尽管经济衰退是痛苦的来源——但长期国内生产总值增长似乎不足以扭转公众的不满情绪。

The "Easterlin paradox" has been hotly disputed since, with some economists claiming to find a link between growth and rising happiness by using better quality data. On March 20th the latest Gallup data were presented in the World Happiness Report, an annual UN-backed study. The new data provide some ammunition for both sides of the debate but, on the whole, suggest that the paradox is alive and well.

自那以来，“伊斯特林悖论”一直备受争议，一些经济学家声称，他们通过使用更高质量的数据，找到了经济增长与幸福感上升之间的联系。3月20日，最新的盖洛普数据在联合国支持的年度《世界幸福报告》中发布。这一新数据为辩论双方提供了一些把柄，但总体而言，这一悖论仍然存在。

There are important examples of national income and happiness rising and falling together. The most significant—in terms of population—is China, where GDP per person has doubled over a decade, while average happiness has risen by 0.43 points. Among rich countries Germany enjoys higher incomes and greater cheer than ten years ago. Venezuela, once the fifth-happiest country in the world, has become miserable as its economy has collapsed. Looking across countries, growth is correlated with rising happiness.

存在有国民收入和幸福指数升降的典型例子。就人口而言，最显著的是中国。过去10年，中国人均国内生产总值翻了一番，与此同时人均幸福指数上升了0.43个百分点。在富裕国家中，德国享有比十年前更高的收入和更多的欢乐。委内瑞拉曾经是世界上排名第五的幸福国家，现在却因为经济崩溃而变得不幸。纵观各个国家，经济增长与幸福感的提高密切相关。

Yet that correlation is very weak. Of the 125 countries for which good data exist, 43 have seen GDP per person and happiness move in opposite directions. Like China, India is a populous developing economy that is growing quickly. But happiness is down by about 1.2 points in the past decade. America, the subject of Easterlin's initial study, has again seen happiness fall as the economy has grown. In total the world's population looks roughly equally divided between places where happiness and incomes have moved in the same direction over the past ten years, and places where they have diverged.

然而，这种相关性非常微弱。在有可靠数据的125个国家中，有43个国家的人均国内生产总值和幸福指数呈反比。与中国一样，印度也是一个人口众多、经济增长迅速的发展中国家。但是在过去的十年里，幸福感下降了1.2个百分点。伊斯特林的最初研究对象美国随着经济的增长，幸福感在下降。总体而言，世界人口大致平均分布在两个地区，其中一个地区在过去十年中幸福感和收入水平呈正比，另一个地区则呈反比。