希拉里会因“邮件门”调查而落选吗？

在距离大选投票日不到两周之际，美国联邦调查局（FBI）投下了“震撼弹”。据报道，FBI于美国当地时间10月28日重启对于民主党总统候选人希拉里・克林顿“邮件门”的调查，目前调查还没有进展。而最新民调显示，事件对于希拉里选情的影响已经显现，希拉里的支持率仅仅领先对手共和党人唐纳德・特朗普1%。这会不会是今年大选的“十月惊奇”？希拉里真的危险了吗？

A week ago, the US election looked to be over.

一星期以前，美国大选看似胜负已定。

Hillary Clinton was riding so high in the polls after a disastrous series of gaffes by Donald Trump that few could conceive of a Republican path to victory on 8 November. Fridays intervention by the FBI may not be enough to change that outcome on its own, but it has certainly set political imaginations running wild.

随着唐纳德•特朗普的屡次灾难性失态，希拉里•克林顿在民意调查中的人气扶摇直上，若论11月8日的总统大选，所有人都认为共和党气数已尽。周五，联邦调查局的突然介入虽不至于扭转局势，却也足够掀起人民对政坛的各种臆测了。

The worry for Democrats is that fresh inquiries regarding Clintons use of a private email server while secretary of state come at a difficult time.

近期希拉里因担任国务卿期间使用私人邮箱服务器而重新遭到调查，民主党对此忧心忡忡，因为这来得太不是时候了。

Not only is it hard to prove a negative and re-establish her innocence with barely a week to go until the election, but the letter to congressional officials from director James Comey capped a tricky run of news that was already making a sizable dent in her polling lead.

他们的担忧并不仅仅是因为苦于要在大选前短短一周的时候承认负面资讯并重新建立希拉里的清白形象，也是因为联邦调查局局长詹姆斯•科米写给国会官员的信件已经成为一条棘手的资讯，并给希拉里在民调中的领先地位造成了不小的负面影响。

Momentum for Trump began to recover first thanks to another set of emails, the contents of which perhaps explain why the Clintons risked so much to try to retain control of her electronic communications in the first place.

多亏了另一组邮件，特朗普的势头第一次开始复苏。这些邮件似乎解释了克林顿夫妇不惜冒险也要在第一时间夺回希拉里邮箱账号的理由。

Released by WikiLeaks, a factor that US intelligence agencies have blamed on Russian hackers, these emails to and from campaign chairman John Podesta have been trickling out for weeks, with mostly embarrassing rather than damaging content.

邮件的发布者是维基解密，美国情报机构据此将邮件的泄露归咎于俄罗斯黑客。这些希拉里与其竞选主席约翰•波德斯塔的往来邮件数周来被陆续泄露，其中大部分内容与其说是有损形象，不如说是令人尴尬。

That changed on Wednesday with the release of a report that appeared to confirm just how much the Clinton family has blurred the boundaries between its business, charitable and political interests.

但周三的报告一泄露，情况就不一样了。这份报告似乎能证实克林顿家族将商业、公益和政治利益混为一谈的程度有多严重。

Though almost all of the new information related to Bill rather than Hillary, it gave Trump supporters fresh ammunition at a moment when they were desperate to shift attention from their candidate's own scandals over taxes and alleged inappropriate behaviour towards women.

虽然这些新消息大多数有关比尔•克林顿而不是希拉里•克林顿，但也让特朗普支持者们暂时重新振作，将选民的注意力从特朗普避税、发表侮辱女性言论等丑闻上面转移。

In an election that many pollsters describe as an unpopularity contest, it does not take much to swing the mood of independent voters.

民意调查专家将这场选举称为不得人心的竞选，因此骑墙派选民很容易动摇。

By Friday, the combination of no news from Trump and bad news from Clinton had halved her average lead in the polls since the last presidential debate.

截至星期五，由于特朗普没什么特别的资讯，而希拉里却爆出了丑闻，自上次总统竞选辩论以来，她在民意调查中的平均优势已经减半。

"When the attention was on Trump, Clinton was winning. Now, the attention is on Clinton", said political consultant Frank Luntz, who has predicted the winner in 2016 will be the campaign that keeps the focus on its opponent.

“过去民众的注意力集中在特朗普身上时，希拉里的支持率节节攀升。可如今，焦点却在希拉里身上。”政治顾问弗兰克•伦茨说。他预测2016年大选的获胜者，将是把民众焦点集中在对手身上的一位。

Sundays average lead for Clinton in national polls of 3.4% ought still to be a healthy safety margin.

周日的全国民意调查显示，希拉里仍然保持着3.4%的平均领先率，尚在安全范围内。

Bill Clintons lead over George Bush shrank from 11 points to just three in the last two weeks of the 1992 election, yet he won by nearly double that margin.

在1992年的总统竞选中，比尔•克林顿对老布什的平均领先率在最后两个星期从11%降至仅仅3%，但最后他却以近6%的优势取胜。

But among Democrats, a cause for concern if not yet panic is that very few polls published so far were carried out after news broke about the FBI and the emails.

但是对于民主党来说，还有一个因素值得忧心，甚至可能值得恐慌，那就是目前公布的民意测验结果中，只有极少部分的投票是在有关联邦调查局和邮件的丑闻爆发后进行的。

One reputable survey that got close, an ABC News-Washington Post tracking poll released on Sunday, showed just a one-point overall lead for Clinton.

美国广播公司资讯网和《华盛顿邮报》联合进行的民意跟踪调查则更精确。周日，这项值得信赖的民调发布的结果显示，希拉里的全国平均支持率仅仅领先一个百分点。

It asked some voters on Friday evening what they thought and found the news had mostly hardened existing opinions but could also play a role at the margins.

调查者在周五晚上询问了一些选民的看法，发现丑闻虽然主要坚定了选民原本的想法，但也会对支持率产生微弱的影响。

"About a third of likely voters say they are less likely to support Clinton given FBI director James Comeys disclosure", said pollster Gary Langer.

“大约有三分之一的潜在选民说在詹姆斯•科米的曝光后，他们不太想要支持希拉里了，”民意调查员加里•兰格说。

"Given other considerations, 63% say it makes no difference". Only 7% of Clinton supporters felt it would make any difference, but this rises "much higher among groups already predisposed not to vote for her", the poll found.

“还有63%的潜在选民说，考虑到其他因素，丑闻不影响他们的投票。”民意调查显示，只有7%的希拉里支持者觉得丑闻对他们有影响，但是这些影响“在原本就不打算投票给希拉里的人群中反响要大得多”。

"The potential for a pullback in motivation of Clinton supporters, or further resurgence among Trumps, may cause concern in the Clinton camp especially because this dynamic already was under way", Langer added.

“希拉里阵营可能会关注希拉里支持者变心的可能性，以及特朗普阵营的进一步复苏——尤其是在当下这种态势已经萌芽的情况下。”兰格补充道。

"Intention to vote has grown in Trump support groups in the past week as the intensity of criticisms about him has ebbed."

“随着批评特朗普的声音减少，过去一周特朗普阵营的投票意向人数正在增加。”

This CBS poll showed just 5% of Democrats said the issue might make them less likely to support Clinton, compared with more than a quarter of registered Republicans.

哥伦比亚广播公司的民调显示只有5%的民主党人士认为这一事件会降低他们对希拉里的支持度。相比之下，超过25%的登记在册的共和党人对此表示肯定。

This risk also helps explain the ferocity of Democratic calls for the FBI to urgently exonerate Clinton.

支持率下滑的风险也解释了为什么民主党义愤填膺地要求联邦调查局立刻为希拉里平反。

Many loyalists are convinced the latest trove of emails, discovered on equipment shared by Clinton aide Huma Abedin and her estranged husband Anthony Weiner, are an irrelevance.

许多希拉里的死忠支持者坚信最近在希拉里的心腹胡玛•阿贝丁及其分居的丈夫安东尼•韦纳用的电子设备中发现的邮件内容只是些细枝末节。

Even if some show more classified information passed its way through the private server, it should not change the FBIs earlier decision that a criminal charge would be unfair without evidence of intent or coverup.

即使其中有些证据显示希拉里通过私人服务器发送了更为机密的信息，这也不会让联邦调查局改变想法，将这件事定性为犯罪。因为在缺少犯罪意图和掩盖罪行行为的情况下就提起刑事诉讼是不公平的。

But so long as this is not categorically established, there may be a nagging doubt in some minds that the FBI suspects otherwise.

但是只要这件事情还没有盖棺定论，又会有流言蜚语说联邦调查局另有疑虑。

Not everyone will be prepared to give Clinton the benefit of the doubt.

并不是所有人都准备在这件事上放过希拉里。

Some studies have shown just 11% of voters describe Clinton as "honest and trustworthy", lower even than Trumps score of 16%.

某些研究显示只有11%的选民认为希拉里“诚实可信”，比特朗普的16%还要低。

While it may not be enough to the tip the balance, running for president while facing potential criminal investigation is never a good look.

尽管“邮件门”的影响还没到扭转局势的地步，但在竞选总统期间遭到刑事调查终归不是一件体面的事。