历史中东:新月沃土,富饶不再

THE Middle East is arid. But it is also home to some of the world’s most fertile rivers, such as the Nile. So it is all the more alarming that one of its great river basins, the Tigris-Euphrates—which flows through the so-called fertile crescent that gave birth to agriculture itself—is getting drier. According to a study in Water Resources Research, an American scientific journal, between 2003 and 2009 the region that stretches from eastern Turkey to western Iran lost 144 cubic kilometres of fresh water. 中东地区气候干旱、土地贫瘠，但世界上孕育沃土的几大河流均发源于此，尼罗河就是其中之一。“底格里斯河—幼发拉底河”流域属世界之最，其河水流经“新月沃土”——昔日当地的农业发源地。如今两河却日渐枯竭，让人格外忧心。据美国科学期刊《水资源研究》的一项研究显示，2003至2009年间，土耳其东部至伊朗西部地区共失去了144立方千米的淡水。 That figure is vast. It is equivalent in volume to the Dead Sea and, according to the study’s senior author, Jay Famiglietti of the University of California, Irvine, implies that the region is suffering the world’s second-fastest rate of water depletion after northern India. The water table sank by 0.3 metres (one foot) a year in 2006-09. At the point where the Euphrates crosses from Syria into Iraq, it now flows at only 70% of the rate it once did. All this in an area that already faces severe water shortages. 这相当于一个死海的容量，数字十分庞大。据该研究的指导作者——加州大学欧文分校的简?费米格利提（Jay Famiglietti）所示，如今该地区的水资源耗竭速度仅次于印度北部地区，为世界第二。2006至2009年间，地下水位每年降低0.3米（1英尺）。在叙利亚、伊拉克边境处的幼发拉底河，水流速度仅为过去的70%。该地区的水资源本来就严重短缺，如今更是雪上加霜。 The study provides the first accurate estimate of all the water in the basin. National statistics are flawed and incomplete; some figures are even state secrets. But the study uses satellite data from America’s NASA which is not subject to these restrictions. These satellites not only measure surface water by photographs but, thanks to precise measurements of the effect of bodies of water on the atmosphere, can even calculate the amount of water in the aquifer below them. 该研究首次为两河流域的所有河流提供了一份准确的评估。各国国家统计局的数据并不准确，而且还不完整；有些数据甚至属于国家机密。但该研究使用的是美国国家宇航局（NASA）发来的卫星数据，所以并不会受到这些限制的影响。那些卫星不仅可以通过照片测量地表水的容量，甚至还可以计算出地下的蓄水层所含水量，因为卫星能够精准地测量水体对大气的影响。 The main reason for the depletion turns out to be that more water is being taken out of the underground aquifer, mainly by farmers. The rate of loss accelerated after drought hit the region in 2007. Between 2007 and 2009, in response to reduced flows of water in the rivers, Iraq’s government dug 1,000 new wells and abstracted four-fifths of all its groundwater reserves. The aquifer is not being replenished at anything like that rate, so this cannot continue for long. 原来，水资源之所以耗竭，主要是因为人们（主要是农民）从地下蓄水层抽出的水过多。2007年该地区遭遇了旱灾，因而水资源流失速度加快。在2007至2009年间，由于河流的水量减少，伊拉克政府新挖了1000口井，境内4/5的地下水资源都被抽干。水资源消耗速度如此之快，蓄水层却一直无法恢复到正常水量。所以这种状况也持续不了多久。 The rapid depletion has implications for managing the basin, which is shared by Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran. All the countries have extensive dams, reservoirs and other sorts of infrastructure on both rivers which control the water’s flow. But they have no international treaty governing when and by how much they can shut the flow down. 水资源的迅速枯竭为两河流域的治理带来了一定启示。该地区为土耳其、叙利亚、伊拉克和伊朗共有，所有国家都在两河上建了大量水坝、水库和其他基础设施，对水流进行控制。但他们并没有达成国际条约，约定应何时阻截水流、以及阻截多少。 Over the years, this has not mattered much. The countries have rubbed along, sometimes amicably, sometimes not, with downstream ones (notably Syria and Iraq) assuming there would always be enough water in the upstream reservoirs of Turkey for them all. But if the new study is any guide, that assumption may not hold for much longer. As Mr Famiglietti says, “The region is ripe for collaborating on the science of water management. Whether it is ready for an international legal framework, I have no idea.” 多年来，这并没有造成很大影响。国家之间也算相安无事，有时相处融洽，有时也不尽然，因为下游区域的国家（尤其是叙利亚和伊拉克）总认为土耳其在上游区域的水库能为他们提供充沛的水资源。但如果这份新研究有可借鉴之处，那样的说法可能就撑不了多久了。正如费米格利提所说，“两河流域地区是该共同合作、科学管理水资源了。不过，我不清楚它是否愿意接受国际法律框架的束缚。”