中国对朝立场面临挑战 China stance on N Korea faces Security Co

China’s strategy to contain North Korea’s nuclear ambitions faces a crucial test in the coming days as the UN Security Council presses ahead with a resolution, and possible new sanctions, against China’s neighbour and sometime ally.

中国遏制朝鲜核抱负的战略将在未来几天面临关键考验。目前联合国安理会正推动通过决议，可能对中国的这个邻国（有时还是盟友）施加新的制裁。

Experts on both sides of the Pacific say Beijing has been surprised by the US’s tough response to Pyongyang’s testing of a nuclear warhead in January and launch this month of a long-range rocket. The US is asking China to impose sweeping economic sanctions on Pyongyang, including an oil embargo.

太平洋两岸的专家们表示，美国对平壤今年1月份核弹头试验和本月发射远程火箭做出了强硬的回应，这让北京方面感到意外。美国要求中国对平壤施加包括石油禁运在内的全面经济制裁。

“My sense from talking with the Chinese is that they were quite surprised that the US came to them with such a big ask,” says Bonnie Glaser of Washington-based think-tank the Center for International and Strategic Studies. “They were expecting something along the lines of what had been done in the past, a marginally tougher UN Security Council resolution and tough rhetoric, and move on.”

总部位于华盛顿的智库——战略与国际问题研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)的葛来仪(Bonnie Glaser)表示：“从与中方人士的谈话中，我感到他们对美国提出这么高的要求感到相当意外。他们预计会像过去那样，联合国安理会通过稍微强硬一点的决议，做出严厉谴责，然后事情就过去了。”

One measure Washington has rolled out is a proposal to base a new anti-missile defence system in South Korea. This has infuriated Beijing, which says the Terminal High-Altitude Air Defence (THAAD) platform could threaten its own nuclear deterrent.

华盛顿已经推出的一个举措是，提议在韩国部署新的反导弹防御系统。这激怒了北京，后者表示，末段高空区域防御系统(THAAD)平台可能威胁到中国的核威慑力量。

The US has also said it will press ahead with tough unilateral secondary sanctions, with bills working their way through Congress that could target some Chinese banks and companies working with North Korea.

美国还表示，将推动出台严厉的二级单边制裁措施，美国国会正在审议的一些法案可能针对某些与朝鲜有业务来往的中资银行和公司。

The measures are also intended to stiffen Beijing’s resolve and make it consider cutting off its economic lifeline to Pyongyang. Beijing, however, not only fears the consequences of further antagonising North Korea, it is also anxious to prevent the downfall of the regime.

这些措施也意在强化北京方面的决心，促使后者考虑切断平壤的经济命脉。然而，北京方面不仅担心进一步激怒朝鲜的后果，而且还急于阻止朝鲜政权倒台。

“North Korea is a nuclear-armed country on the brink of collapse,” says Tong Zhao, an expert on nuclear disarmament at the Beijing-based Carnegie-Tsinghua Centre.

位于北京的卡内基-清华全球政策中心(Carnegie-Tsinghua Centre)核裁军专家赵通表示：“朝鲜是一个处于崩溃边缘的核武国家。”

“Making it into an enemy is the last thing China wants to see, because China can be directly threatened. I think it is unfair for the international community to make that demand on China.”

“把它变成敌人是中国最不想看到的事情，因为中国可能直接受到威胁。我认为，国际社会对中国提出这种要求是不公平的。”

Beijing appears to have adopted a policy of publicly paying lip service to tougher sanctions while privately working the levers behind the scenes. Wang Yi, foreign minister, told Reuters in Munich last week that the UN should adopt a resolution to ensure “North Korea will pay the necessary price and to show there is a consequence for its behaviour”.

中国政府采取的政策似乎是口头上公开支持对朝鲜实施更严厉制裁，私下里却在幕后斡旋。中国外交部长王毅上周在慕尼黑告诉路透社(Reuters)，联合国应出台一项决议，确保“朝鲜将付出必要的代价并表明朝鲜要为其行为承担后果”。

The US has been emboldened by the recent Iran nuclear deal, which showed how tough sanctions can work to change the behaviour of “rogue states”. But these arguments do not appear to be working in Beijing, where there is fear for stability on the Korean peninsula.

最近生效的伊朗核协议使美国得到鼓舞，该协议表明，严厉制裁能够改变“无赖国家”的行为。但这些主张对中国似乎没有说服力，中国对朝鲜半岛稳定感到担忧。

“Yes they want de-nuclearisation but only under the precondition of the preservation of stability in North Korea,” says Ms Glaser. “The Chinese have no stomach for regime change in North Korea.”

“没错，他们希望实现无核化，但前提条件是维护朝鲜的稳定，”葛来仪表示，“中国不希望朝鲜发生政权更迭。”

When John Kerry, US secretary of state, travelled to Beijing and urged the Chinese government to embargo oil shipments to North Korea, he was rebuffed by Mr Wang, according to experts.

据专家称，美国国务卿约翰克里(John Kerry)访问北京并敦促中国政府对朝鲜实施石油禁运，遭到了王毅的拒绝。

Meanwhile, the opposite approach seems to be in the air in Beijing. Cui Lei, a researcher at the Beijing-based China Institute of International Studies, wrote a widely followed opinion piece in a Singapore newspaper last month advocating treating North Korea similarly to India and Pakistan, which both tested nuclear bombs in 1998.

与此同时，中国似乎在试探相反的策略。北京中国国际问题研究院(China Institute of International Studies)研究员崔磊上月在一份新加坡报纸上发表了一篇广受关注的评论文章，支持像对待印度和巴基斯坦那样对待朝鲜。前两个国家曾在1998年进行核弹实验。

“We should readopt our India-Pakistan approach: acquiescence in North Korea’s nuclearisation, while refusing to legalise it,” he wrote.

他写道：“我认为，可以考虑采取印巴模式，默认朝鲜的拥核事实，但不给予其合法地位。”