名校最新大学英语四级阅读精讲的系列讲义：(101)

　　The first pre-election poll, or straw vote ,as it was then called,was conducted by the Harrisburg Pennsylvanian before the 1824 presidential election.This straw vote and the many that followed it really registered nothing but local opinion.However, as communications improved and elections were won by closer and closer margins,newspapers and journals tried desperately to satisfy their readers curiosity in more reliable ways.

　　Before the 1928 elections,no fewer than eighty-five publications made private inquiries,generally by means of questionnairessent to subscribers and by telephone surveys.The principle common to all these inquiries was that they depended on quantity rather than quality;little effort was made to reach representatives of all segments of the population.Still,the erroneous belief persisted that the greater the number of questionnaires,the more accurate the results would be .The record was held by the American monthly Literary Digest,which sent out millions of postcards with short and pointed questions before each election,and received many hundreds of thousands of replies.In fact ,in 1932,the Literary Digests forecast was off by only 1 percent.

　　In view of such striking achievements,it for the young American journalist,George Gallup,to claim that large numbers were irrelevant,and that equally accurate or better predictions could be made with a small but carefully selected sample of the population and a small team of skilled interviewers.

　　In 1936,it took Gallup a long time to convince thirty-five newspaper editors that his system was much cheaper than the customary mass inquiries and that it could provide surprisingly accurate predictions.The editors finally agreed,on condition that if Gallups predictions were less accurate than those obtained by the tried method of the Literary Digest,he would have to refund the entire cost of the investigation.Although the Literary Digest broke its own record by obtaining two million replies to its electoral postcards that year,its prediction was wrong by 19 percent,whereas Gallups was off by less than 1 percent.

　　1.From the passage we know that the earliest pre-election polls were ____ in reflecting the public opinions.

　　A)meaningful B)inaccurate C)satisfying D)successful

　　2.All of the following are the characteristics of the inquiries mentioned in the second paragraph except____ .

　　A)a large number of questionnaires were sent out

　　B)quantity rather than quality was emphasized

　　C)almost no effort was made to interview people from every walk of life

　　D)every publication in America got involved

　　3.We can infer from the passage that in the beginning the newspaper editors were____ Gallups system.

　　A)doubtful of C)displeased with

　　B)enthusiastic about D)indignant at

　　4.We can infer from the passage that in the early 1930s___

　　A)Gallup was a famous journalist

　　B)the Literary Digest liked to break records

　　C)the literary Digest was the biggest monthly in America

　　D)the method of the Literary Digest was popular and well-received

　　5.Gallups system proved to be____ .

　　A)much cheaper B)a great failure

　　C)a huge success D)much costly

　　答案与解析：

　　1.B 文章的第一段告诉我们，最初的选举前的民意测验反映的仅仅是地方性的局部意见，由此可见它们在反映民意方面是不够准确的。

　　2.D 从文章第二段可知，这些调查共同的特点是重量不重质，错误地认为发出去的问卷越多结果就越准确，而且调查的对象缺乏广泛性。由此可见，A、B、C三项都是这些民意调查的特点，而D项既不符合事实，也谈不上是什么特点。

　　3.A 由文章第四段可知，盖洛普花了很长时间才说服35位报纸编辑采用他的调查方法。由此可断定，对他的方法编辑们起初是持怀疑态度的。B项不符合事实，C项和D项在文中也找不到依据。

　　4.D 盖普洛当时只是个年轻的记者，费了很大劲才说服别人采用他的调查方法，所以A项是不正确的。文中虽然两次提到《文摘》月刊保持和打破纪录，但也不能由此推断它喜欢破纪录，所以B项也不正确。C项在文中找不到依据，所以也不对。只有D项是正确的推论，因为文章第二段的最后一句告诉我们，《文摘》对1932年选举的预测误差仅为百分之一，而且第四段又说编辑们给盖洛普提的条件是如果他的预测不如《文摘》准确，他就得掏钱负担整个调查的费用，可见《文摘》采用的方法是为大多数人所接受的。

　　5.C 看懂文章的最后一句话即确定正确答案是C。whereas Gallups was off by less than 1 percent 意为 而盖洛普的预测误差不到百分之一 。