According to that IMF forecast, Chinas economy could overtake that of US to become the worlds biggest by 2016. That is much earlier than previous predictions, some of which called it for 2030 or as late as 2050. Now let me take you through the new forecast for the Chinese and the US economies. They are based on purchasing power parity, which is basically a way of comparing what people earn and spend in real terms. The IMF says Chinas economy will grow from $11.2 trillion this year to, in 2016, to $19 trillion. Thats a growth of about $8 trillion in total. Meantime, the US, well, that is forecast to go from about $15.2 trillion in 2011. In 2016, supposed to go up to $18.8 trillion. Thats only about $3.5 trillion there. So what does that mean as part of the world economy. Well, by 2016, well, China would be responsible for about 18% of total world output. And that would like to keep rising. The US for its part would only account for 17.7% of total world output. And you know, just remember, it was just last year that China overtook Japan as the worlds second largest economy. So if the IMF forecast holds, it would be a great economic leap forward for China going from No.3 to No.1, and of course toppling the US in just 6 years.
Extraordinary speed when you look at it like that, but as you point it out, there are around for when China will become the No.1 economy. That doesnt seem to be any doubt. It will. It is just a matter of when. So how credible is this 2016 deadline from the IMF. I mean they are talking about measuring in purchasing power parity, arent they?
Yeah, thats right. They are talking about that. And I did speak with Frederic Neumann just a short while ago. He is a HSBCs managing director of Asian Economics Research. He told me 2016 is actually a credible time frame, especially of course because its coming from the IMF itself. But he also said there are other ways and perhaps better ways to measure economies. The IMF here did use purchasing power parity. Lets take a listen.
For one is to measure an economys output in US dollar terms, not a PPP terms as the IMF has done, which is a measure of purchasing power that local households have, just to look at that in US dollar terms, and here it would take much longer for the Chinese economy to overtake the US, probably 2025 or thereabouts, when we see finally China coming close to the US. And thats a better gage for international purchasing power. But the other relevant measure is per capita income. And thats ultimately what everybody really counts on. And per capita time in China to catch up with US prosperity.
And Neumann said that on that measure by per capita income, China would overtake the US only in the 2040s or the 2050s. Regardless, Adrew, whether its then or in five years from now, its not a question of if China will surpass the US but when and we will be talking about this again and again until it does.
2016高考英语一轮总复习 课时作业9 Module 3《Music》外研版必修2
2016高考英语一轮总复习 课时作业7 Module 1《Our Body and Healthy Habits》外研版必修2
2016英语高考一轮复习:高频词汇精选-P(全国各版本通用)
20年跟踪研究证明常蒸桑拿可预防痴呆症
日常英语:寒冷的气候
2016英语高考一轮复习:高频词汇精选-W(全国各版本通用)
2016高考英语一轮总复习 课时作业5 Module 5《A Lesson in a Lab》外研版必修1
2016英语高考一轮复习:高频词汇精选-S(一)(全国各版本通用)
2016高考英语一轮总复习 课时作业16 Module 4《Sandstorms in Asia》外研版必修3
2016高考英语一轮总复习 课时作业12 Module 6《Films and TV Programmes》外研版必修2
2016届高考英语一轮复习 Unit1 Making a difference随堂检测 新人教版必修2
如何不走寻常路地高效做事?
2016英语高考一轮复习:高频词汇精选-Q(全国各版本通用)
2016英语高考一轮复习:高频词汇精选-Y(全国各版本通用)
2016英语高考一轮复习:高频词汇精选-S(二)(全国各版本通用)
2016高考英语一轮总复习 课时作业6 Module 6《The Internet and Telecommunications》外研版必修1
外媒总结了2016中国年度流行语
2016英语高考一轮复习:高频词汇精选-G(全国各版本通用)
2016高考英语一轮总复习 课时作业47 Module 6《The Tang Poems》外研版选修8
2016英语高考一轮复习:高频词汇精选-T(全国各版本通用)
从凯特威廉夫妇不守时到小甜甜不可原谅的坏习惯:2016年表现最糟糕的名人
2016高考英语一轮总复习 课时作业1 Module 1《My First Day at Senior High》外研版必修1
2016高考英语一轮总复习 课时作业4 Module 4《A Social Survey—My Neighbourhood》外研版必修1
2016英语高考一轮复习:高频词汇精选-N(全国各版本通用)
Convey, convert, transform 和 divert 四个含有“转换”意思的单词
体坛英语资讯:Yeray thanks fans for support after cancer operation
2016高考英语一轮总复习 课时作业10 Module 4《Fine Arts—Western,Chinese and Pop Arts》外研版必修2
国内英语资讯:Chinese premier extends condolences to Turkish PM over terror attack in Istanbul
2016英语高考一轮复习:高频词汇精选-O(全国各版本通用)
你会捡起书本么 Will You Pick Up the Books
不限 |
英语教案 |
英语课件 |
英语试题 |
不限 |
不限 |
上册 |
下册 |
不限 |