The Result of the Falling US Dollar 阅读练习与讲义

　　The Result of the Falling US Dollar

　　Like a ticking time bomb, the falling dollar has grabbed the attention of Japan and West Germany, forcing them to consider adopting economic polices the United States advocates. The U.S. government wants the dollar to fall because as the dollar declines in value against the yen and Deutsche mark, U.S. good becomes cheaper. U.S. companies then sell more at home and abroad, and U.S. trade deficit declines. Cries for trade protection abate, and the global free-trade system is preserved.

　　Then, the cheaper dollar makes it cheaper for many foreign investors to snap up U.S. stocks. That prompts heavy buying from abroadespecially from Japan. Also, if the trade picture is improving, that means U.S. companies eventually will be more competitive. Consequently, many investors are buying shares of export-oriented U.S. companies in anticipation of better profits in the next year or so. But that is a rather faddish notion right now; if corporate earnings are disappointing in interest rates, the stock market rally could stall.

　　Improving U.S. competitiveness means a decline in anothers competitiveness.

　　Japan and West Germany are verging on recession. Their export-oriented economies are facing major problems. Japan is worried about the damage the strong yen will do to Japanese trade. West Germany is also worried. Share prices in Frankfurt plummeted this past week. Bonn is thought to be considering a cut in interest rates to boost its economy.

　　Could the falling dollar get out of hand? If the dollar falls too far, investors might lose confidence in U.S. investmentsespecially the government bond market. The money to finance the federal budget and trade deficits could migrate elsewhere. Inflation could flare up, too, since Japanese and German manufacturers will eventually pass along price hikesand U.S. companies might follow suit to increase their profit margins. The U.S. federal Reserve then might need to step in and stabilize the dollar by raising interest rates. And higher interest rates could cause the U.S. economy to slow down and end the Wall Street Rally.

　　Worried about these side effects, Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcher has said the dollar has fallen far enough. What is the equilibrium level? Probably near where it is or slightly lower. It all depends on when the U.S. trade deficit turns around or if investors defect from U.S. Treasury Bonds. It requires a good deal of political patience on the part of the U.S. Congress, says Dr. Cline, And there must be an expectation of patience on the part of private investors. The chance are relatively good that we will avoid an investor break or panic.

　　1、What is the main idea of this passage?

　　[A]. The impression of the falling U.S. dollar.

　　[B]. The result of the U.S. falling dollar.

　　[C]. The side effect of U.S. falling dollar.

　　[D]. Japan and West Germany are worried about U.S. falling dollar.

　　2、What does the word rally mean.

　　[A]. prosperity. [B]. decline. [C]. richness. [D]. import.

　　3、Why are Japan and West Germany worried about the falling dollar?

　　[A]. Because the falling dollar may cause inflation in their countries.

　　[B]. Because it may force them to sell a lot of U.S, stocks.

　　[C]. Because it may do damage to their trade.

　　[D]. Because it may make Japanese company less competitive.

　　4、If dollar-falling got out of hand, and the U.S. Federal Reserve might step in , what would happen?

　　[A]. The prosperity of the U.S. economy would disappear.

　　[B]. The U.S. economy might face serious problems.

　　[C]. Investors might lose confidence in U.S. investments.

　　[D].Inflation could flare up.

　　Vocabulary

　　ticking 滴答作响的

　　grab 抓住

　　abate 减弱

　　snap up 争购，抢购

　　heavy buying 大量买进

　　export-oriented 以出口为方向的

　　in anticipation of 期待，预期

　　faddish 一时流行的

　　spree 无节制的疯狂行为

　　buying spree 狂购乱买

　　plummet 垂直落下，骤然跌落，暴跌

　　stall 停滞

　　verge 处于边缘

　　verging on recession 正处于衰退的边缘

　　boost 振兴，吹捧

　　bond market 债券市场

　　flare up 突然闪耀，发火，爆发

　　hike 提高，增加

　　follow suit 照着做，跟出同花色的牌

　　profit margin 利润幅度

　　step in 介入

　　rally 繁荣

　　equilibrium 平衡，均势

　　defect 逃跑，开小差

　　break or panic 崩溃或大恐慌

　　难句译注

　　1. cries for trade protection 贸易保护的呼声

　　2. the global free-trade system 全球自由贸易体系

　　3. that is a rather faddish notion right now 只是一时流行的概念

　　4. get out of hand 失控

　　5. What is the equilibrium level? Probably near where it is or slightly lower. 什么是平衡水平?可能是接近现在水平或者稍低一些。

　　6. trade deficit 贸易赤字，贸易逆差。

　　写作方法与文章大意

　　这是一篇论述美元下跌的后果的文章，采用对比，顺序，因果等写作。先提出问题：美元下跌，美国得利有二：一是(第一段)商品便宜，销售量大，赤字下降，全球自由贸易体系保住。二是(第二段)外国投资者会抢购美国股票。总之，美国竞争力加强。

　　这两段中都有对比。第一段美国和日本的对比，开头就像滴答作响的定时炸弹，日见下跌的美元抓住了日本和西德的注意力，迫使他们考虑采取美国提出的经济政策。第二段是美国本身之利弊对比。许多外国投资者抢购出口导向的美国股票，期望在下一年左右的时间里得到较多的利润。如果公司收益在今后几个季度里令人失望的话，这种买进古片的狂热行为就可能消失。最后，如果美元价格直线下跌导致利率上升，股票市场价格回升就会停顿。 后面两段是这两段负效应的进一步论证。

　　答案祥解

　　1、B. 美元下跌的结果。全篇文章都讲的美元下跌的后果。

　　A. 美元下跌的印象。 C. 美元下跌的副作用，均不对。因为还讲述了有利的一面。D. 日本的、西德担忧美元下跌，这只是其中的部分内容。

　　2、A. 繁荣。第五段美元下跌是否会失控：如果美元下跌过多，投资者可能会失去对美国投资的信心，特别是对美国的债务市场。对联邦政府预算和贸易赤字提供的资金可能移向其它市场，因为日本和西德厂商最终会将上涨的价格转嫁出去，美国公司也可能这么做，以提高其市场利润幅度，从而使通货膨胀再次爆发。美国联邦储备委员会这时可能需要介入，提高利率来稳定美元。而较高利率会导致美国经济减慢，华尔街的繁荣行将结束。

　　B. 衰退。 C. 富有。 D. 出口，都不是rally之含义。

　　3、C. 因为下跌对他们贸易有损害。第三段改善美国竞争力意味着其他国家的竞争力下降。第四段，日本和西德正濒于经济衰退的边缘。其出口导向的经济正在面临严重问题。日本担心由于日元坚挺而给其贸易带来损害，西德也在发愁。上个星期，法兰克福股市价格暴跌。据说，波恩已在考虑降低利率以振兴其经济。

　　A. 美元下跌会使他们国家通货膨胀。没有正式提到, 内涵只是贸易带来的其他具体问题。B. 它可能迫使他们卖掉许多美国股票。D. 这可能使日本竞争力下降。问题是提出两国，不单单是日本。

　　4、A. 美国经济繁荣消失，见第2题答案A的注释。

　　B. 美国经济可能面临严重问题。太笼统。C. 投资者可能对在美国投资失去信心。这不是美国联邦储备委员会介入后发生之事。D. 通货膨胀全面爆发。这也是介入之后果。