GMAT考试写作指导：Argument范文四十

　　30. In this argument prudent investors are advised to stop investing in hotels and

　　invest instead in hospitals and nursing homes. The author cites two related trends―an

　　aging population and a decline in hotel occupancy―as grounds for this advice. To

　　illustrate these trends, the author refers to another region of the country, where 20

　　percent of the population is over 65 years old and where occupancy rates in resort hotels

　　have declined significantly during the past six months. This argument is unconvincing

　　in a couple of important respects.

　　In the first place, the author provides no evidence to support the claim that the

　　population as a whole is aging and that the hotel occupancy rate in general is declining.

　　The example cited, while suggestive of these trends, is insufficient to warrant their truth

　　because there is no reason to believe that data drawn from this unnamed region is

　　representative of the entire country. For example, if the region from which the data was

　　gathered was Florida, it would clearly be unrepresentative. The reason for this is

　　obvious. Florida is populated by a disproportionate number of retired people over 65

　　years old and is a very popular vacation destination during the winter months. Moreover,

　　resort hotel occupancy in Florida typically declines significantly during the summer

　　months.

　　In the second place, the author has provided no evidence to support the claim that

　　the decline in hotel occupancy is related to the aging of the population. The author

　　appears to believe that the decrease in occupancy rates at resort hotels is somehow

　　caused by the increase in the number of people over age 65. However, the example cited

　　by the author establishes only that these two trends are correlated; it does not establish

　　that the decline in hotel occupancy is due to an increase in the number of people over

　　the age of 65.

　　In conclusion, the authors investment advice is not based on sound reasoning. To

　　strengthen the conclusion, the author must show that the trends were not restricted to a

　　particular region of the country. The author must also show that the cause of the decline

　　in hotel occupancy is the increase in the number of people over 65.